ABSTRACT
Economics is known as the ‘dismal science’, but few non-economists know the dismal origin of the saying. It has never been as dismal as it is now, as a cascade of figures, forecasts and algorithms tumble out of every official orifice to predict how much the world economy will shrink. Forecasts of the fall in global GDP yo-yo from the bad to the catastrophic. People in the UK, the US and, just to pick at random, India are losing jobs at a rate never seen before. Predictions only contribute to uncertainty. For all its gravitas, the International Monetary Fund does not pretend its predictions are certain. It claims that if the pandemic fades in the second half of 2020 and the policy actions taken around the globe do help prevent bankruptcies and major job losses, global growth in 2021 should rebound to 5.8%.
