ABSTRACT
In summary, continuing declines in global emission intensity levels will be essential if emissions are to be reduced sufficiently to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that avoids dangerous climate change. However, stabilization of concentration levels will require emission intensities to fall at a much more rapid rate – possibly twice as fast – than they have over the past two decades. In order to stabilize emissions, let alone atmospheric concentrations (which are determined by past as well as ongoing emissions), emission intensity declines would need to equal the combined effects of GDP and population growth on global emission levels. That is, if GDP grows at 2% per year and population by 1% per year, then emission intensity would need to fall by 3% per year just to stabilize emissions. Obviously, this will require policies and measures additional to those currently in place – see stabilization targets).
