ABSTRACT

A phases approach to conflict escalation and de-escalation assumes only that the emergence of violent conflict and its eventual termination have a beginning and, eventually, an end. But there is no deterministic teleology implied. Certainly not all conflicts work their way through the various phases outlined here to arrive at a sustainable negotiated settlement; no case will fully comply with such a neat pattern of de-escalation. Indeed, the data presented in Chapter 1 suggest that historically only a small minority of internal conflicts once-and-for-all terminate in negotiated settlements. At any given phase of the conflict, it is equally possible that parties will choose an “exit” strategy of their own, either withdrawing from the conflict altogether, going back to violent conflict and escalation, or simply resuming a stalemate that may be more comfortable than the inherent uncertainty of further talks.