ABSTRACT
The Middle East has changed dramatically since September 11, 2001 in ways that both improve and damage Israel’s and America’s security. Ironically, the biggest improvement – the downfall of Saddam Hussein – also hurts: the elimination of a united Iraq and its replacement by a weak Shia-dominated state alters the balance of power in the Gulf in favor of Iran. Other changes also make the future uncertain, including the Iranian nuclear program, the rise of Islamist movements and their terrorist off-shoots, the problems facing Israel in Lebanon and with the Palestinians, the setbacks suffered by the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan, and the resulting spread of Iranian influence throughout the region. The central strategic question facing Israel remains unchanged: is peace and security possible in this troubled region?
