ABSTRACT
The contribution of the USA to shaping the world order during the second half of the 20th century is hard to overestimate, but no empire lasts forever and American power may have passed its zenith. US pre-eminence faces a more complex combination of challenges than ever before. The events in Iraq since 2003 have undermined US credibility and may prompt a period of retrenchment. Over the longer term, however, environmental change and globalization are likely to have the greatest impact on the distribution of global power. The USA consumes energy at unsustainable rates and faces the prospect of being overtaken by Asia as the economic powerhouse of the world economy. The USA’s determination to retain military superiority may also overtax its economy and create a gap between its ambitions and its capabilities. Its military superiority rests on technological superiority, but this may be eroded as nuclear and bio-chemical technologies become more widely accessible. An added danger is that the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction will be allied to the challenge of terrorism, which expresses in extreme form the backlash of the relatively powerless.
“We know, there are known knowns… We also know there are known unknowns…But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
Donald Rumsfeld US Secretary of Defense 2003