ABSTRACT

From the time of the Sino-American rapprochement between Mao Zedong and US President Richard Nixon in the early 1970s, the relationship between China and the United States has experienced a number of diplomatic highs and lows. While recognising each others’ importance, each is also concerned about the long-term international intentions of the other, especially as China continues to develop into a great power. China’s rising has led to divisions within American policymaking and academic circles over how Washington should address Chinese power. Those who argue that the relationship can and should remain stable point to the increasing dependence, politically and economically, each side has upon the other. At the same time, there is the argument that China will find common ground in issues with the United States, such as those related to economic cooperation, including the continuing health of global markets, and international security issues such as the threat of global terrorism. Adherents to this thinking note it would be in Beijing’s interests as a growing great power to behave in a more conservative fashion in order to avoid threats to its development. A great power conflict, including one with the United States, would be incredibly risky due in no small part to the presence of nuclear weapons on both sides. Thus, the best option for Washington, it is argued, would be to encourage Chinese participation in global affairs and to seek common ground with Beijing in addressing global problems. However, adherents to the ‘China Threat’ (weixielun) school in the United States,

those who argue for a high probability of Sino-American conflict as Chinese power grows, point to China’s growing military budget and its potential to challenge American strategic interests, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. More recently, this school of thought has also examined Beijing’s ideological differences with Washington, pointing to nationalism concerns and differing views on individual rights, as well as growing economic differences based on American criticism of China’s growing market power and still close relationship between the Chinese government and its large firms.1 ‘China Threat’ adherents point to historical precedent, noting that states which rise towards great power status are often war-prone as they seek a louder voice in international affairs and focus on protecting assets outside their immediate territory. There are also arguments that the policies of the United States and China differ widely on issues including human rights, democratisation and intervention in the affairs of other states. At the same time, the realist theory of power transition is frequently cited to suggest a possible Chinese threat, arguing that there is a significant potential for violence when a rising dissatisfied power (China) challenges a satisfied great power (America). However, this theory is based upon the supposition that Beijing is sufficiently unhappy with the current international order to consider challenging, directly or indirectly, American power.