ABSTRACT
Economic history reveals a parabolic or bell-shaped pattern in many key indicators of development. Population tends to increase sharply with economic development, because as conditions improve infant mortality declines and people live longer. After a while, however, increasing prosperity encourages people to have fewer children, so population growth slows and stops. Likewise with energy: its use increases with economic development, because every activity that adds economic value consumes energy, and as prosperity is spread more widely. After a while, however, continuing development and technological sophistication means that the energy consumption can be moderated, and some of the most energy-intensive activities in heavy industry get relocated from rich countries to poorer countries where development is just taking off. Most Middle Eastern countries are currently on the upward slope with rising energy consumption. In most countries for which statistics are available, personal use of cars is at levels comparable with Latin America and, at the higher end, Western Europe.
