ABSTRACT
How does one expect a rising latecomer to behave? Our earlier discussion of the rationalist perspective suggests that this state should be a status-quo power. It would try to maintain the current state of affairs lest the continuation of its growth trajectory be interrupted or flattened. It would avoid provoking the declining but still stronger power. Recognizing that time is on its side, this latecomer would try to minimize the danger of any premature confrontation. Its general aversion to taking risks conforms to the expectation of prospect theory, which postulates that this latecomer would be more interested in consolidating its recent gains than in precipitating a showdown that would jeopardize these gains. This remark does not suggest that such a country will refrain from taking any risky action. Indeed, when it perceives that its recent gains are being threatened, it may be expected to accept great risks in an effort to fend off such losses.
