ABSTRACT
Thus far, I have focused on the identification of any ongoing or past power transitions and the determination of the status-quo or revisionist orientation of states. These discussions have been about how one may seek to capture those empirical referents in the world of international relations that correspond to the central concepts of the power-transition theory. I now turn to the logic behind the causal attribution suggested by this theory. In brief, this theory hypothesizes that major wars happen when a revisionist challenger instigates a conflict to displace a declining hegemon from the pre-eminent position that the latter country has previously enjoyed.1 According to this theory, major wars coinciding with or following from such a power transition are fought over more than just the distribution of benefits between the upstart and the hegemon; they are really contests about the rules according to which such distribution is to be made.2
In other words, these wars are about who should control the international system and thus have the potential of transforming this system.3
