ABSTRACT
The seminal work in the adoption of technology is Rogers’ (1962) Diffusion of Innovations. In it he describes the manner in which innovations have an S-shaped curve of adoption, shown in Figure 2.1.
The gradient of the curve can vary, depending on the innovation in question (the innovation needn’t be technological, but the pattern and categories often apply to the uptake of a technology), and factors such as how much benefit or commercial advantage it provides, the audience in which it is being adopted, the ease with which it can be adopted, and so on. The key point is that there is usually a period where the innovation is used by a relatively small community, and then as it enters the steep part of the curve uptake increases dramatically. This is also characterized as the ‘tipping point’, when an innovation gains a critical mass of users. There is also a flattening off of the curve, which suggests that, beyond a certain point, a lot of time (and usually resource) is required to increase the number of users.
