ABSTRACT

Drawing on interviews with the UK government's Panel of Independent Forecasters, the author shows how economic models, forecasts and policy analysis depend crucially upon the judgements of economists.

chapter 1|23 pages

Who Knows What Tomorrow Brings?

Brief introductions to the sociology of scientific knowledge and to economic forecasting

chapter 2|26 pages

Cherished Beliefs and T-Statistics

How economic models are estimated

chapter 3|27 pages

Extrapolations And Expertise

How economic forecasts are made

chapter 4|24 pages

Soothsaying Or Science?

Choosing between economic models

chapter 5|27 pages

Different Models

Economic forecasts in February 1993

chapter 6|25 pages

Different Futures

Controversies and disputes in July 1993

chapter 7|19 pages

Difficult Choices

Policy recommendations in October 1993