ABSTRACT

The multi-faceted character of probability has been visible since the time of Pascal (Hacking, 1975). At one extreme, there are statistical or frequentist conceptions that lead to the current foundations of standard econometrics, ergodicity, stationarity and testing for statistical significance. At the other extreme, there are treatments of reasonable degrees of beliefs, epistemic states, foundations of expected utility theory, and various subjectivist or personalist conceptions. In the present century, with the gradual recognition of degrees of belief, refinements of rationality, and new awareness of cognitive biases (with more attention being given to the basic issues of support, information and evidence), primary views of probability allow a considerable range of measurability and wider environmental contexts in the consideration of dynamic uncertainty.