ABSTRACT
In a nation whose electoral tradition is patchy at best, where there has not been a competitive election for more than a quarter of a century, where the return to competition is under considerable restrictions, and where the outcome is never in doubt, it is easy to dismiss the first semifree election as merely a show. I believe that this would be a serious mistake. Not only was a tremendous amount of effort put into the campaign, but the results clearly reflect the underlying political dynamics of the Egyptian political economy. Even cursory analysis shows a pattern of support and opposition that should have sent a clear message to the government. Either the government could not hear the message or did not believe it. Soon after the elections it made a critical mistake in judging its opposition. The mistake led to the most violent riots Egypt had witnessed in a quarter of a century. The political analyst only repeats that mistake if he does not pay very careful attention to the election and its results.
