ABSTRACT
There are a great many people who, having realized that a nuclear war would be a disaster, have convinced themselves that it will not occur. I profoundly hope that they are right, but if they are, it will only be because the Great Powers adopt new policies. While present policies continue on both sides, there is much more possibility of a nuclear war than is thought by the general public. The reason for the danger is that leading statesmen on both sides believe, or profess to believe, that their side might secure a victory in the old-fashioned sense. Mr Dulles warned a Committee of Congress that the American way of life is in greater jeopardy from the Cold War than it would be from a hot one. An open war-so he is reported as saying-America could win, but ‘I do not know if we will win this Cold War or not’. I quote The Times of June 27, 1958. Mr Krushchev, on the other hand, in a letter to me, said:
I have no doubt that both Mr Dulles and Mr Krushchev have many followers who devoutly believe that a nuclear war would end in establishing the sort of world that they think good. In this chapter, I wish to give reasons for thinking this belief on either side completely mistaken. It is a dangerous belief both because it makes war more likely and because it is an obstacle to rational conciliation.
