ABSTRACT
Since the introduction of market reforms in 1978, China has rapidly emerged as a major regional and even global power, averaging over nine per cent economic growth over the past 30 years. Although China’s economy in 1980 was less than 10 per cent of the size of the US economy, by 2006 it had grown to almost half that of the US when measured by consumption (Figure 23.1). Foreign businesses have flocked to invest in China, while Chinese exports have begun to flood world markets. China is modernizing its military, has joined numerous regional and international institutions, and is increasingly visible in international politics. The world has reacted in two ways to China’s rise. On the one hand, policymakers,
business executives and the popular press have marvelled at China’s successes and scrambled to participate in the tremendous economic opportunities that have arisen in
the past few decades. Indeed, seven consecutive US presidents have encouraged China’s integration into the global system, from Richard Nixon’s belief that ‘dealing with Red China … means pulling China back into the world community’ (Nixon 1967: 123) to President George W. Bush welcoming ‘the emergence of a China that is peaceful and prosperous, and that supports international institutions’ (Washington Post 2006). On the other hand, there is increasing concern that the arrival of a new superpower
may challenge the US politically and perhaps even lead to military conflict. The Pentagon’s 2008 assessment of China’s military power concludes that ‘much uncertainty surrounds China’s future course, in particular in the area of its expanding military power and how that power might be used’ (US Department of Defense 2008). Whether China can rise peacefully, or whether it can even continue that rise, is thus one of the major policy and scholarly issues of our time. Within the scholarly literature on International Relations, there are theoretical argu-
ments for both optimistic and pessimistic expectations regarding China’s rise. This chapter surveys those theoretical arguments, contrasting the variety of material and ideational hypotheses. It then explores two central issues related to China’s rise. First, how great is China’s power, and what are the potential challenges that China faces that could derail growth and make this question moot? Second, what is the evidence to date about how states are responding to China’s emergence? The chapter concludes by looking to the future and identifying the variables most likely to affect how China will rise and whether or not it can be peaceful.
