ABSTRACT
Today’s business decision makers depend heavily on the use of computers and access to databases to make short and long-term business forecasts. These business forecasts are made so that business decision makers know what the likelihood would be of gains and losses. Whether we are looking at a small or a large retail outlet, an airline, a giant energy producer, or a major financial institution, they all use short-term forecasts to operate successfully in their business environment. The principal advantage of the short-term forecasting technique is their simplicity. It is important to keep in mind that simplicity does not imply less accuracy. Additionally, we can use these simple models as a benchmark to gauge the applicability, reliability, and necessity of the more sophisticated models. The choice of selecting an appropriate model, however, depends on the ability of the model in capturing the pattern exhibited by the actual historical data, not its complexity.
