ABSTRACT

Fundamentally, whatever the fascination of complex mathematical behaviour, the real interest of all the models and equations that have been presented and discussed concerns their usefulness in helping people deal with real problems, and real decisions. But this in turn depends on how well the perceptions and responses of the different actors involved in the system are represented. This is because we now see that in reality, any model describing the connected behaviour of its different components, is based on the supposition that the separate behaviours of each of them taken alone has been successfully represented for all the situations that may be encountered during a simulation. It is therefore worth spending some time reflecting on how this is done, and what problems and questions remain to be resolved, since clearly, models fail when the conditions encountered during a ‘run’ go beyond those within the expected range. This implies that the modeller has successfully parametrized all the relevant attributes which matter to the actor, and also excludes the possibility of individuals learning from their own experiences, during the run, and changing their responses as a result. Whilst noting these issues, let us continue to see what is the most consistent framework within which to develop our decision making models.