ABSTRACT
The focus of this chapter is the central steps of impact prediction, evaluation and mitigation. This is the heart of the EIA process, although as we have already noted the process is not linear. Indeed the whole EIA exercise is about prediction. It is needed at the earliest stages, when a project, including its alternatives, is being planned and designed, and it continues through to mitigation, monitoring and auditing. Yet, despite the centrality of prediction in EIA, there is a tendency for many studies to underemphasize it at the expense of more descriptive studies. Prediction is often not treated as an explicit stage in the process; clearly defined models are often missing from studies. Even when used, models are not detailed, and there is little discussion of limitations. Section 5.2 examines the dimensions of prediction (what to predict), the methods and models used in prediction (how to predict), and the limitations implicit in such exercises (living with uncertainty).
