ABSTRACT
Everyone judges probabilities, and does so every day. You may find yourself wondering how likely it is to rain tomorrow, whether the fact that you have sneezed twice in the last 10 minutes means you have got a cold coming, or if you will be likely to meet a friend if you go to Murphy’s Bar on Friday evening. This kind of thinking is an aspect of inductive reasoning: you are going further than the information given to produce a conclusion that, although plausible, is not guaranteed to be true. The preceding chapter showed how some inductive tasks indeed ask explicitly for judgements of probability, e.g. of argument strength. Sometimes our judgements of probability are not so explicit.
