ABSTRACT
Strong economic growth is assumed for China in the USDA model, over eight per cent for the period 2001-2005. Population growth is forecast to slow down to less than one per cent. The GDP assumption for China in the Mitchell model is 8.4 per cent, quite a high level, while the growth rate of the Chinese population is projected to drop, based on United Nations’ population projections of 1991. The Nyberg model distinguishes two projection periods, ranging from 1992 to 2005 and from 1992 to 2020. The choice for the period ending in 2005 is made because it is the end of the implementation period of the Uruguay Round. Following a literature review and adjusting income elasticities, it is assumed in the Nyberg model that there is a seven per cent annual GDP growth between 1995 and 2020. Population growth is predicted at 0.89 per cent per annum for 1992 to 2005 and 0.76 per cent for 1992 to 2020 based on the GTAP database.
