ABSTRACT

As the Soviet Union fell apart in 1991, it was widely expected that Iran and Turkey would enter into a rivalry for influence in the Caucasus and Central Asia —an expectation which to a large extent has become reality, despite official efforts from both sides to deny this.2 In particular, the Turco-Iranian struggle has taken the form of a struggle between ‘models’—Turkey presenting a secular, Western-oriented democratic model, while Iran proposes a radical Islamic, antiWestern outlook with its own particular regime, which however allows for a substantial degree of democracy. In this respect, and perhaps except for Tajikistan, Turkey currently seems to have the upper hand, as most Caucasian and Central Asian leaders expressed sympathy for the Turkish model, as viewed in chapter seven, but have been very hostile to political Islam and therefore have refrained from overly close relations with Iran. In this struggle for influence, the Caucasus has taken a special place. The region is as noted at the outset of this study the historical meeting point of three empires: The Russian, the Ottoman Turkish, and the Persian. During much of history, Iran has considered the South Caucasus to be part of its sphere of influence and has played the role of a

hegemony in the area. With the disappearance of Russian control, such historical affinities re-emerged in Tehran. Based on ethnolinguistic and religious affinities but also on strategic considerations, it seemed logical that both Turkey and Iran would give priority to Azerbaijan in trying to gain influence in the Caucasus. A priori, this seemed a logical conclusion, and the Azerbaijani leadership initially hoped that it would be able to use the Turco-Iranian rivalry to its own benefit. Turkey is closely tied to Azerbaijan in terms of language, ethnicity and culture. The Azeris also share many elements of Persian culture and, more important, are-like the Iranianspredominantly Shi’i Muslims, whereas the Turks are mainly Sunnis.3 Azerbaijan and Iran also have very strong historical links. Azerbaijan has for most of its history been a part of the Persian empire, an arrangement which came to an end with the Russo-Persian wars of the first half of the nineteenth century. Turkic dynasties have even ruled Persia at different times; the Safavid empire, which instituted Shi’i Islam as state religion in Iran, was Turkic in origin.4