ABSTRACT
Someone once said ‘Most books, on most subjects are too long’. Here is a short book on risk analysis. The primary objective of this book is to demystify risk analysis in construction. The text is intended to be a concise, practical introduction to systematic methods of dealing with risk in construction projects. There is enough material to equip the reader to carry out competent and thorough analyses of project risk. The book is intended to be a practical source of reference on the techniques of risk analysis used in construction economics and project management. Mathematics, jargon and excessive theoretical detail are all avoided, as far as possible. No prior knowledge of mathematics is assumed (Chapter 2 contains a very simple introduction to some basic notions of probability). The focus of the book is on the analysis rather than the management of risk. At the core of the book several techniques are introduced. Their strengths and weaknesses are examined to see how they may be used in practice to carry out risk appraisals of various aspects of construction projects and capital investment decisions. Certain techniques are necessary, but not sufficient, for competent risk analysis. Projects are managed by people. People enter data, assumptions and judgements into equations for the purpose of analysis. People’s assumptions and perceptions may be inaccurate and inconsistent, but are often powerfully accurate and consistent.
