ABSTRACT
Baker, president of the Fund for Peace, and Ausink, who is a colonel in the U.S. Air Force and is a National Defense Fellow at Georgetown University, present a predictive model vis-à-vis potential/actual violence that may be used by analysts and policymakers. Of their model, they note the following:
First, the model provides a dynamic conceptual framework to compare various confl icts at different stages of violence or confl ict resolution. Second, the framework presents a way for analysts to conduct a longitudinal analysis of any single confl ict, so it can be monitored and evaluated from the root causes to likely outcome. Third, the model suggests ten indicators of state collapse in ethnically divided societies that can be used for early warning. . . . Fourth, the model provides an overview of the potential role of the international community at different points in a confl ict, highlighting the importance of preventive action before a crisis reaches catastrophic proportions. (p. 20)
847. Barnhizer, David (Ed.) (2001). Effective Strategies for Protecting Human Rights: Prevention and Intervention, Trade and Education. Aldershot, UK: Ashgate Publishing Co. 250 pp.
