NATO

When NATO leaders decided at the April 2009 Summit in Strasbourg that a new Strategic Concept would be developed, many expected to have an opportunity to re-examine and reduce the role of nuclear weapons in NATO strategy. The primary catalyst for these expectations was the growth in support for the concept of a world without nuclear weapons. This support was first signaled by the “Gang of Four”1 and was later endorsed by President Obama in his Prague speech. The specific focus of attention was the continued presence in Europe of approximately 180 US nuclear warheads and the impending decision regarding the modernization of the dual-capable aircraft (DCA) with which they would be deployed. Those who hoped for change, however, were soon disappointed. The NATO Strategic Concept adopted at the summit in Lisbon in November 2010 was widely praised for its brevity and simplicity. However, this meant that contentious issues concerning both nuclear policy and posture were left unresolved. These issues were left for NATO’s Deterrence and Defence Posture Review (DDPR), which was completed and endorsed at the Chicago Summit in May 2012. The goal of the DDPR was to identify the mix of capabilities required by NATO to address twenty-first century threats. For some, the review offered an opportunity to establish the relationships among principal components, including the new missile defense capability, and to outline a sustainable rationale for the role of nuclear forces. NATO’s relationship with Russia provided a common theme for the discussion of all aspects of defense policy. The plan to introduce territorial missile defense was central to the discussions. Despite the technical and financial uncertainties surrounding its implementation, missile defense carries considerable political significance. Missile defense serves as a litmus test for cooperation with Russia, is seen as a way of catalyzing NATO cohesion, and has potential, but disputed, consequences for the role of nuclear weapons in NATO strategy. While confirming the current mix of capabilities, the DDPR demonstrated that NATO continues working to reconcile a variety of perspectives on nuclear policy and posture. Some countries are eager to see a change in the status quo, while others see no reason to shift from current policies. The common factor for all, however, is the need maintain unity among the Alliance.