ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION This scenario begins at the point at which we left the crisis of the country state (Chapter 4) at the start of the first scenario. In this case, we assume that the ruling elites in the Arab country states will realize and understand the magnitude of the challenges and dangers threatening their regimes and states and will, therefore, be induced to adopt a series of policies and extensive reforms both internally and in their Arab regional relations in order to counter those challenges and dangers. These ruling elites may be the same as those in power at the present time, or they may be new elites that assume power during the coming decade (from the mid-1980s to the mid-1990s). The important point is that those exercising authority should realize and understand the magnitude of the disasters to which the first scenario could lead as a continuation of the Arab situation in the mid-1980s.
