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Chapter
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present state of the country's statistical and economic system, such exercises are impracticable, and we will therefore focus on the wider distributional features of teh DTYP. Also excluded is any discussion or test of the feasibility fo the DTYP targets in narrow technical terms. In keeping with our mild scepticism over the officially adopted population growth rates, we will assume a growth rate of population of 3.0 per cent per year over the period. This does not alter any of our arguments in a significant fashion. One other statistic has been altered: the growth rate for agriculture. In the DTYP, this is pegged at 4.5 per cent per annum. However, this includes the rapidly expanding export sector which carries a base-year weight of about 12 per cent, and which has a target growth rate of ten per cent per annum. This implies a growth rate of 3.5 per cent for the non-export domestic agricultural sector, and we will utilise this rate in our calculations. Let us return then to the simple analytical device used in our discussion of the inflationary process and compute the * warranted' levels, y*, n* and e*, and compare these with the targets for y, n and e. This is done in Table 12 which offers some strategic insights into the possible distributional dilemmas and implications of the DTYP. With n = 3.5 per cent, y* = 3.8 per cent, implying a warranted per capita GDP growth of under one per cent per annum, in contrast to the targeted 4.5 per cent or more. If we set y = 7.5 per cent, then n* = 5.7 per cent.
DOI link for present state of the country's statistical and economic system, such exercises are impracticable, and we will therefore focus on the wider distributional features of teh DTYP. Also excluded is any discussion or test of the feasibility fo the DTYP targets in narrow technical terms. In keeping with our mild scepticism over the officially adopted population growth rates, we will assume a growth rate of population of 3.0 per cent per year over the period. This does not alter any of our arguments in a significant fashion. One other statistic has been altered: the growth rate for agriculture. In the DTYP, this is pegged at 4.5 per cent per annum. However, this includes the rapidly expanding export sector which carries a base-year weight of about 12 per cent, and which has a target growth rate of ten per cent per annum. This implies a growth rate of 3.5 per cent for the non-export domestic agricultural sector, and we will utilise this rate in our calculations. Let us return then to the simple analytical device used in our discussion of the inflationary process and compute the * warranted' levels, y*, n* and e*, and compare these with the targets for y, n and e. This is done in Table 12 which offers some strategic insights into the possible distributional dilemmas and implications of the DTYP. With n = 3.5 per cent, y* = 3.8 per cent, implying a warranted per capita GDP growth of under one per cent per annum, in contrast to the targeted 4.5 per cent or more. If we set y = 7.5 per cent, then n* = 5.7 per cent.
present state of the country's statistical and economic system, such exercises are impracticable, and we will therefore focus on the wider distributional features of teh DTYP. Also excluded is any discussion or test of the feasibility fo the DTYP targets in narrow technical terms. In keeping with our mild scepticism over the officially adopted population growth rates, we will assume a growth rate of population of 3.0 per cent per year over the period. This does not alter any of our arguments in a significant fashion. One other statistic has been altered: the growth rate for agriculture. In the DTYP, this is pegged at 4.5 per cent per annum. However, this includes the rapidly expanding export sector which carries a base-year weight of about 12 per cent, and which has a target growth rate of ten per cent per annum. This implies a growth rate of 3.5 per cent for the non-export domestic agricultural sector, and we will utilise this rate in our calculations. Let us return then to the simple analytical device used in our discussion of the inflationary process and compute the * warranted' levels, y*, n* and e*, and compare these with the targets for y, n and e. This is done in Table 12 which offers some strategic insights into the possible distributional dilemmas and implications of the DTYP. With n = 3.5 per cent, y* = 3.8 per cent, implying a warranted per capita GDP growth of under one per cent per annum, in contrast to the targeted 4.5 per cent or more. If we set y = 7.5 per cent, then n* = 5.7 per cent.
ABSTRACT
Both in the elementary model used, as well as in the one implicit in the DTYP, a prime determinant of the rate of non-inflationary (and hence, egalitarian, given the present foodgrain market structures) growth of GDP would be the availability of marketed surplus. This should not imply, however, that no superior growth strategy is possible, superiority being judged here in terms of the simultaneous achievement of preferred growth and distributional outcomes. Let us outline three alternative cases.
