ABSTRACT
Whatever is hidden from full view in this feeble light has to be guessed at by talent, or simply left to chance. So once again for lack of objective knowledge one has to trust to talent or to luck.
(Clausewitz, On War, Book Two, Ch.2) The study of strategic surprise can be rather disappointing for those who have always assumed that a better theoretical understanding of the subject at hand would logically lead to the discovery of more effective practical means to anticipate strategic surprise and alleviate its impact. Thus far in its application to the real world, improved insight into the causes and pattern of strategic surprise has made only a negligible contribution to the search for ways to warn of a sudden attack in an accurate and timely fashion. If anything, the scrutiny of this phenomenon in recent years has chiefly served to explain why surprise is almost always unavoidable - and will continue to be so in the foreseeable future - despite all efforts to the contrary.
