ABSTRACT
E nvironmental scarcity is conventionally analyzed as an issue concerning intergenerational equity. If the present generation is leaving so little environmental resources for future generations that their welfare growth and even the preservation of current standards of living are threatened, then we say that current growth is unsustainable. No one can prove or disprove this with certainty. We may be able to find out, however, whether current growth patterns are reducing certain environmental resources at a rapid pace. This increased scarcity probably means a greater risk of unsustainable growth. As discussed elsewhere in this volume, it appears that scarcity created by current (and past) generations mostly affects so-called environmental amenities (ecosystem health, air, atmospheric carbon concentration, etc.). Scarcity of environmental commodities (foods, minerals, energy, etc.), on the other hand, is not imminent. The consensus is that given current trends, there is a significant risk that scarcity of environmental amenities may affect the welfare and economic growth of future generations within the present century.
