ABSTRACT
Across the world as a whole, air travel is probably responsible for about 2.5 per cent of carbon emissions. Multiply this by 2 to account for the nitrogen oxides and water vapour, and we are up to about 5 per cent. In the UK, the figure is already nearly 6 per cent for carbon dioxide alone and 12 per cent after the multiplication. Until the recent recession, air travel had been growing by 5 per cent a year, and although engines are becoming more efficient, carbon emissions are certainly increasing by around 2.5 per cent a year. No one sees an end to this growth – cheap air travel is immensely popular and many governments are willing to build airports to accommodate the extra travel. The consequence of unconstrained growth of aircraft emissions, even at the relatively modest rate of 2.5 per cent compounded a year, is to double aircraft emissions in the next 30 years. In the UK, that will mean average emissions per person of 3 tonnes just for air travel. This is inconsistent with any aspirations to reduce national emissions by 80 per cent by 2050.
