ABSTRACT
DER(EIJDEN2AM¤REZ3ELSKYAND7ILKINSONSHOWHOWSCENARIOWORKCANHELP DECISIONMAKERSCONCERNEDWITHlNANCIALCRISESTORE THINKTHEASSUMPTIONSTHEY HOLDABOUTRISKANDVALUEANDTORE ASSESSMODELSnSUCHAS#APITAL!SSET0RICING nTOASSESSANDMANAGETHESE 4WOCHAPTERSINTHISVOLUMEDRAWLINKAGESBETWEENTHESCENARIOMETHODAND
OTHERMETHODSnTOOURKNOWLEDGEFORTHElRSTTIME#HAPTERBY*AIME*IM£NEZ EXPLORESTHEMETHODOFSCENARIOSINRELATIONTOTHESEARCHCONFERENCEMETHOD 4RUDI,ANGAND,YNN!LLEN#HAPTER EXPLOREHOWSCENARIOSARESITUATEDIN RELATIONTOSOFTSYSTEMSMETHODOLOGY"OTHCHAPTERSSEEKTOENRICHSCENARIOWORK BYAPPLYINGINSIGHTSFROMTHEOTHERMETHODS 4HEAPPLICATIONOFTHESCENARIOSMETHODISEXPLOREDDIRECTLYINVERYDIVERSE
CASE CONTEXTS IN THE CHAPTERSON THE )NDIANAGRICULTURAL SECTORBY+EES VAN DER(EIJDEN#HAPTER ON3WEDISHREGIONALHEALTHCAREBY.IKLAS!RVIDSSON #HAPTER ON3COTTISHENERGYBY'EORGE"URT#HAPTER ON6ENEZUELABY -ARTIN4HOMAS#HAPTER ONCORPORATESOCIALRESPONSIBILITYINTHETOBACCO ANDPUBLICUTILITIESINDUSTRIESBY!NDROMACHE!THANASOPOULOU#HAPTER AND ONTHERECENTlNANCIALCRISISBYVANDER(EIJDEN2AM¤REZ3ELSKYAND7ILKINSON #HAPTER 4HUSASASETTHECHAPTERSINTHISVOLUMEEXPLOREHOWCAUSALTEXTURETHEORY
#44 HELPSPRACTITIONERSUSINGSCENARIOMETHODSTOUNDERSTANDHOWTHEYMIGHT ANDSHOULD ENGAGEWITHTURBULENTlELDS)NANIMPORTANTSENSETHENTHEBOOK CONSTITUTESATHEORETICALLYGROUNDEDREmECTIONONPRACTICE3CHšN INTHAT ITRENDERSEXPLICITPRACTITIONERSASSUMPTIONSTHATINmUENCETHEIRCHOICESAND RELATESTHESECHOICESTOANEXPLICITINTELLECTUALFRAMEWORK 7HILEOURFOCUSINTHISBOOKHASBEENTOUSE#44TOBETTERUNDERSTANDTHE
METHODOFSCENARIOWORKTHEAUTHORSANDOUROWNENGAGEMENTWITHTHATTHEORY INTERMSOFSCENARIOAPPLICATIONSRAISESOMEIMPORTANTISSUESTHATWEEXPLORE BELOW
3CENARIOSCANBECONSIDEREDAMETHODWITHWHICHTOENGAGESOMEASPECTOFREALITY (OWEVERTHEYARENOTAMETHODINTHECLASSICSCIENTIlCSENSEBECAUSETHEYHINGE ON@ARTFULRATHERTHAN@SCIENTIlCPROCESSES #LASSICSCIENTIlCMETHODISPOSITIVISTICDEDUCTIVEANDPROSPECTIVE(YPOTHESES
DERIVEDFROMVARIANCESONACCEPTED@TRUTHSARETESTEDEMPIRICALLYAGAINST@REALITY UNDERCAREFULLYCONTROLLEDCONDITIONSANDNEWTRUTHSAREDISCOVEREDWITHTIGHTLY BOUNDED GENERALIZATIONPOSSIBILITIES(OWEVER PHILOSOPHER OF SCIENCE0AUL &EYERABENDSUGGESTEDINHISBOOK!GAINST-ETHOD THATINNATURALSCIENCE @METHODISALWAYSARETROSPECTIVEACCOUNTOFWHATTHESCIENTISTHASDONE4HIS ACCOUNTENABLESOTHERSCIENTISTSTOREPLICATETHEPROCEDUREORPROCESSTOREPRODUCE
ITUNDERSIMILARORATLEASTCOMPARABLECONDITIONSINORDERTODETERMINEIFTHE SAMEORSIMILARRESULTSAREPRODUCED3CIENTIlCTRUTHSTHATSURVIVETHEDISPROVING OFFALSEHOODSINMETHODICALPRACTICECANTHUSBEESTABLISHEDTHROUGHINDEPENDENT REPLICATION 3OCIALSCIENCERESEARCHSTRETCHESTHISVIEWOFSCIENTIlCMETHODBECAUSECONTROL
OVERTHECONDITIONSNECESSARYFORHYPOTHESISTESTINGISMUCHMORECHALLENGING 4HISISBECAUSETHERESEARCHMETHODMAYINVOLVEINTERVENTIONINTHESYSTEM PROVOKINGUNEXPECTEDREACTIONSINTHATSYSTEM-OREOVERTHERESEARCHERMAY BECOMEANIMPORTANTVARIABLEINTHESITUATIONnFOREXAMPLESIMPLYBYCHOOSING ASETOFTECHNIQUESWITHWHICHTOINVESTIGATETHEPHENOMENON.ORMANN ORBYINTERPRETINGlNDINGSINANIDIOSYNCRATICWAY'ARETH-ORGANINHISBOOK "EYOND-ETHOD ARGUESTHATTHEMETHODASOCIALSCIENTISTEMPLOYSINA RESEARCHPROJECTSTRONGLYAFFECTSTHERESULTSTHATTHEINVESTIGATIONWILLPRODUCE 4HUSMETHODISNOTNEUTRALTHEMETHODITSELFHELPSTOCONSTRUCTORMAKESENSE OFTHEPHENOMENONABOUTWHICHTHESOCIALSCIENTISTISENQUIRINGORINTERVENING INSEEALSO#HURCHMAN 4HUSCHOOSINGAMETHODCANHAVEIMPORTANT CONSEQUENCESFORWHATIS@DISCOVERED 7HATABOUTSCENARIOWORK)TAPPEARSTOUSSCENARIOMETHODSLIKEOTHER
PRACTITIONERSCRAFTSLIELARGELYOUTSIDETHECANONSOFCLASSICORSOCIALSCIENCE0ETER 3CHWARTZ ANINmUENTIALPRACTITIONERSUGGESTSTHATSCENARIOWORKISANART 3IMILARLYVANDER(EIJDEN BELIEVESTHATITINVOLVESANDSUPPORTSTHE@ARTOF CONVERSATION4HEPRODUCTIONOFKNOWLEDGEFROMTHEARTSPROCEEDSINDUCTIVELY FROMSPECIlCCASESTOGENERALREGULARITIESnTHEOPPOSITEOFDEDUCTIVESCIENTIlC METHOD)NTHEARTSEACHSITUATIONISIDIOSYNCRATICWITHENDPOINTSDIFlCULTTO PREDICTANDWITHAUNIQUECONlGURATIONOFACTORSINTERACTINGINNOVELCREATIVE ANDUNEXPECTEDWAYS4HINKOFASYMPHONYORCHESTRAPERFORMANCE.ONETHELESS INTHESCENARIOMETHODSOMEPROCEDURALREGULARITIESCANBEDISCERNED/VERTHE YEARSTHECOMMUNITYOFSCENARIOPRACTITIONERSHASGAINEDSOMEUNDERSTANDINGOF THINGSTHATDOANDDONTWORKINFACILITATINGSCENARIOPROJECTS )NTHISMETHODOLOGICALRESPECTSCENARIOSARESIMILARTOSEARCHCONFERENCES
ANDSOFTSYSTEMSMETHODSSEE#HAPTERSANDRESPECTIVELY INTHATTHEYCAN BEDEPLOYEDASANINTERVENTIONMETHODANDORASARESEARCHMETHOD3CENARIOS WEREDEVELOPEDASAMETHODTOENGAGEWITHCURRENTREALITIESANDEXPLOREHOWTHE CONTEXTOFTHOSEREALITIESMIGHTDEVELOPINTOTHEFUTURE)NTHATSENSESCENARIO METHODALSOBEARSSOMESIMILARITIESTOACTIONRESEARCH!CTIONRESEARCHENTAILSA DEEPENGAGEMENTBETWEENASOCIALSCIENTISTANDACLIENTTHEOUTCOMESOFWHICH EXPLICITLYSEEKTOCONTRIBUTEBOTHTOTHEWORLDOFPRACTICEANDTOTHEWORLDOFSOCIAL SCIENCESEE2EASONAND"RADBURY !SCENARIOPROJECTMAYBECONDUCTEDIN ACTIONRESEARCHMODEBUTNEEDNOTBEITDEPENDSONTHEROLESNEGOTIATEDBETWEEN THESCENARIOPRACTITIONERANDTHECLIENT3CENARIOSMAYALSOBEDEPLOYEDASPARTOF ANACTIONRESEARCHPROJECTSEE#HAPTER
)T APPEARS TOUS THAT THUS FAR ENGAGEMENTSUSING SCENARIOSWHICHHAVE DOCUMENTEDHISTORIESINTHEPUBLICDOMAINCONTRIBUTEMORETOPOLICYSTRATEGY ORCONSULTINGPRACTICETHANTOSCHOLARSHIP6ARIOUSEFFORTSHAVEBEENMADETO SYSTEMATIZETHEPROCEDURESINVOLVEDFORREPLICATIONEG3CHWARTZ AND INSOMECASESVERIlABILITY3CHOEMAKERVANDER(EIJDEN 4HEFACT THATMANYPRACTITIONERSHAVETAKENUPSCENARIOSASAN@ARTFULCONSULTINGTOOLHAS ACCOUNTEDFORITSGROWTHASMENTIONEDIN#HAPTER7EBELIEVEITISNOWTIMETO REmECTONWHATMAKESSCENARIOSINTELLECTUALLYRIGOROUSSOTHATTHEYCANBESITUATED AS@SCIENTIlCINTHESENSEABOVE )N#HAPTERSANDWENOTEDTHATTHETHEORETICALGROUNDINGOFSCENARIO
WORKHASBEENWEAKUNTILNOWANDWEHAVESOUGHTTOREDRESSTHISINTHISBOOK !SAN@ARTFULMETHODSCENARIOSHAVEADUALCHARACTERTHEYAREBOTHPROSPECTIVE SCENARIOPROJECTSHELPPARTICIPANTSTO@DISCOVERORRE PERCEIVE@NEWFUTURES AND RETROSPECTIVEACCOUNTSOFTHEIRSUCCESSAREWRITTENUPFOROTHERPRACTITIONERSTO BENElTFROMASINVANDER(EIJDEN 3CHWARTZS WORKMEETS&EYERABENDSDESCRIPTIONnITCONSISTSOFAFTER
THE FACTACCOUNTSOFPRACTICESTHATWORKEDWELLINASETOFCONTEXTS!NEXPLICIT ACCOUNTOFSUCHAMODEOFDEPLOYINGTHESCENARIOMETHODIS#HAPTERINTHIS VOLUME6ANDER(EIJDENREVISITSWORKHEDIDINTHE)NDIANAGRICULTURALSECTOR DURINGANDMAKESSENSEOFWHATWASACCOMPLISHEDWITHTHEHELPOFCAUSAL TEXTURESTHEORY#44BECOMESAVEHICLEFORCLARIFYINGWHYTHEMETHODWORKEDWELL BYRELATINGTHEMETHODTOTHETURBULENTKINDOFSITUATIONINWHICHITWASAPPLIED "UTCOULDTHATPROJECTBEREPLICATED!RGUABLYNOTBECAUSEOFTHEIDIOSYNCRATIC FACTORSINTHATUNIQUESITUATIONASWELLASTHEPARTICULAREMBODIEDSKILLSINVANDER (EIJDENHIMSELFACCUMULATEDOVERDECADESOFEXPERIENCE!NOVICEPRACTITIONER READINGTHISCHAPTERCOULDNOTEXPECTTOREPLICATETHEPROCESSORTHESUCCESSOF THATPROJECTBUTCOULDCOMETOANAPPRECIATIONOFTHEPROCESSnANDPERHAPSTHE SKILLS@BEHINDTHECURTAINTHATWERENEEDEDTOORCHESTRATEIT4HEENGAGEMENT VANDER(EIJDENRECOUNTSIN#HAPTERPRODUCEDSITUATED@ARTFUL NOTGENERAL REPLICABLE KNOWLEDGE 3EVERALSCHOLARSHAVEATTEMPTEDTOSITUATETHESCENARIOMETHODTHEORETICALLY
nFOREXAMPLEBYLINKINGITTO"ELBINSROLEMODELSINTEAMS)SLEIETAL AND EXPLORINGHOWSCENARIOSRELATETODECISION MAKING3CHOEMAKER ORTHEORIES OFITERATIVELEARNINGVANDER(EIJDEN 4HEMETHODOLOGICALINNOVATION EXPLOREDINTHISBOOKCONCERNSNOTONLYHOWSCENARIOSARETOBEPRODUCEDBUTALSO WHETHERANDWHENTODEPLOYSCENARIOMETHODS4HATISTHECHAPTERSINTHISVOLUME HAVEEXPLOREDWHICHTYPEOFSITUATIONSANDSCENARIOSSERVEANEXPLICITLYDElNED ANDUSEFULPURPOSEINAPROCESSOFGUIDEDENQUIRYANDENGAGEMENT )NTHISRESPECTATHEMEINTHISBOOKISTHATKNOWINGTHEROLEOFSCENARIO
METHODSINAPARTICULARENGAGEMENTORENQUIRYISAREQUIREMENTTOITSBEING EFFECTIVE!CCOUNTSOFFAILUREEGTHEDEBATEAMONG7HITTINGTONAB (ODGKINSONAND7RIGHT MENTIONEDIN#HAPTER IMPLYTHATNOT
PAYINGENOUGHATTENTIONTOPURPOSEANDTHERELATEDMETHODOLOGICALASPECTSINA PROJECTAPPEARSTOCONTRIBUTETOFAILURE7HATWEARESUGGESTINGISTHATATTENDING TOTHECAUSALTEXTUREOFTHEENVIRONMENTHELPSTOCLARIFYTHETYPEOFSITUATIONS INWHICHSCENARIOSAREANAPPROPRIATEANDEFFECTIVEMETHOD)N#HAPTERAN ILLUSTRATIONISOFFEREDOFACOLLECTIVESCENARIO BASEDAPPROACHTOMAKESENSEOF THEUNFOLDINGlNANCIALCRISISCLEARLYATURBULENTENVIRONMENTTHISEFFORTRESULTED INASETOFTWOSCENARIOS3CENARIOSALWAYSCOMEINSETSANDEACHSCENARIOIN ASETPROVIDESADISTINCTVIEWONWHATISANDWILLBEHAPPENING%ACHVIEWIS BASEDONADISTINCTSETOFASSUMPTIONSTHATAPPEARTOBE@NONSENSICALFROMTHE PERSPECTIVEOFFEREDBYTHEALTERNATIVEVIEWS#HAPTERPUSHESTHELINKAGEBETWEEN THETURBULENTENVIRONMENTALTEXTUREANDTHESCENARIOMETHODBYSUGGESTINGTHAT SCENARIOSMAYBEUSEDFORPURPOSESOTHERTHANANTICIPATINGANDAPPRECIATING TURBULENCECOLLABORATIVELY
7HYISTURBULENCECONSIDEREDBADUNCOMFORTABLEORTHREATENING7HYDOESIT REQUIRE@COPINGBEHAVIOUR 6ARIOUSDISCIPLINESHAVEEXPLOREDWHYINTENSEUNCERTAINTYINONESENVIRONMENT
ISPROBLEMATIC0SYCHOLOGYHIGHLIGHTSTHEDETRIMENTALEFFECTSOFSTRESSANDDISTRESS EGINTIMESOFWAR ANDHOWUNCERTAINTYINSOCIALNORMSCHALLENGESANINDIVIDUALS SENSEOFIDENTITY3ENNETT %CONOMISTSARGUETHATLACKOFPREDICTABILITY DESTROYS RENTOPPORTUNITIESASSOCIATEDWITH LONG TERMINVESTMENTSANDTHAT CREATINGEXTERNALEFFECTSWHICHCANNOTBETRADEDISUNSUSTAINABLE!NTHROPOLOGISTS ANDSOCIOLOGISTSCONSIDERHOWTHEDISSOCIATIONANDANOMIECREATEDBYMALADAPTIVE RESPONSESTOUNCERTAINTYLEADTOPASSIVITYORCONmICT0OLITICALSCIENTISTSFOCUSON HOWINTER GROUPCONmICTOFTENRESULTSFROMUNCERTAINTYREGARDINGRESOURCEBASES 7HATDOESTHECAUSALTEXTURESTHEORYSUGGEST/NTHEONEHANDITSAYSTHAT
HEAD TO HEADCOMPETITIONINTHETYPE)))CAUSALTEXTUREANDTHEINCREASINGSALIENCE OFTHEFORCESDRIVINGTHECONTEXTUALENVIRONMENTINTHETYPE)6TURBULENT CAUSAL TEXTUREARELIVEDAS@INCREASINGRELEVANTUNCERTAINTY4HISCREATESANXIETYAMONG THEPEOPLEINAlELD4HISANXIETYASWELLASTHEFAILURETORECOGNIZETHEPOTENTIAL FORTHECAUSALTEXTUREOFTHElELDTOSHIFTFROMTYPE)))TOTYPE)6CANLEADPEOPLE INTOMALADAPTIVEBEHAVIOURSTHATPRODUCEMORETURBULENCE#HAPTERSAND MAKEUSEFULCONTRIBUTIONSTOUNDERSTANDINGTHISISSUE#HAPTERSHOWSHOW BUSINESSCOMPETITIONWITHOUTSUFlCIENTUNDERSTANDINGOFTHERISKSITCO PRODUCES INITSCONTEXTCANWEAKENEVENCOLLAPSETHEWHOLECOMPETITIVElELDASSEENIN THERECENTlNANCIALCRISIS /NTHEOTHERHANDWEHAVE0RIGOGINEARGUINGTHATWHENTHECOMPLEXITYOFA
lELDINCREASESTHEOCCURRENCEOF@DISSIPATIVESTRUCTURESnNEWSOURCESOFORDERAND PREDICTABILITYnALSOINCREASESINANDAROUNDTHATlELDSEE#HAPTER 4HUSMORE
COMPLEXITYBUTACCORDINGTO0RIGOGINEONLYINASUFlCIENTLYLARGElELD MIGHT BEBENElCIALINTHATTHEPROBABILITYOFNEWSOURCESOFUNEXPECTEDORDERINCREASES "UTOFCOURSETHENEWSOURCESOFORDERANDPREDICTABILITYWOULDNOTBEWELCOME IFTHElELDWERENOTSOCOMPLEXANDUNCERTAININTHElRSTPLACE)NTHEGLOBAL lNANCIALCRISISONEMAYQUESTIONWHETHERTHEELECTIONOF"ARACK/BAMATHE' INITIATIVESTOMITIGATETHECRISISTHEUNPRECEDENTEDCOLLABORATIONBYCENTRALBANKS TOLOWERINTERESTRATESPERCENTSIMULTANEOUSLYOROTHERRELATEDEVENTSWILL PROVETOBECRITICALBIFURCATIONSTHATUSHERINANEWGLOBAL@ORDER @#OPINGWITHTURBULENCETHEREFOREMEANS
s RECOGNIZINGTHATTHECAUSALTEXTUREOFAlELDCANBECOMETURBULENTAND s ACTINGTOPREVENTTHISBYENGAGINGIN@ACTIVEnADAPTIVEBEHAVIOURANDAVOIDING MALADAPTIVEBEHAVIOUR&%MERY-%MERY
%VERYTHINGSTARTSWITHRECOGNIZINGTURBULENCEEVENIFITISTEMPORARILYHELDIN CHECKBYADISSIPATIVESTRUCTUREANEWORDER 3CENARIOSAREANIMPORTANTAND HEURISTICWAYTOREACHANUNDERSTANDINGOFHOWTHECONTEXTUAL, RELATIONSHIPS MAYEVOLVE IN THE FUTUREANDTOUNDERSTANDWHATASPECTSOF THECONTEXTUAL ENVIRONMENTAREPREORDAINEDANDINEVITABLEAS#HAPTERSUGGESTS "UTTHESEPERSPECTIVESONWHYTURBULENTCAUSALTEXTURESAREBESTAVOIDEDBEG
THEQUESTIONHOWCANWERECONCILECONTEXTUALFORCESINAlELDTHATRISKSBECOMING TURBULENTWITHTHECHOICESMADEBYINDIVIDUALSYSTEMSINSUCHAlELD7EEXPLORE THISQUESTIONNEXT
!SWENOTEDIN#HAPTER%MERYAND4RISTPRODUCEDTHEIRSEMINALPAPER BEFORETHEYHADMADETHEDISTINCTIONBETWEENTHETRANSACTIONALANDTHECONTEXTUAL ENVIRONMENT"ASEDONTHEIRLATERWRITINGSWEHAVEASSUMEDINTHISBOOKTHATFOR AGIVENSYSTEM,PLANNING AND,LEARNING RELATIONSCONNECTTHATSYSTEM WITHITSTRANSACTIONALENVIRONMENTAND,RELATIONSCONSTITUTEITSCONTEXTUAL ENVIRONMENTWHICH@BOUNDSTHETRANSACTIONALONE4HEIMPLICATIONISTHATTHE CONTEXTUALENVIRONMENTHAPPENSOUTSIDETHESPHEREOFINmUENCEOFTHESYSTEM nAFFECTINGITSTRANSACTIONALENVIRONMENTBUTUNABLETOBEINmUENCEDBYIT)N CONTRASTTHESYSTEMISABLETOINmUENCEITSTRANSACTIONALENVIRONMENT,, SINCEITTRANSACTSWITHITANDCODETERMINESITWITHTHOSEWITHWHOMITTRANSACTS %MERYAND4RIST SUGGESTEDTHATTHECRITERIAFORTURBULENCEWERERELATED
TOTHEDEGREEOF@SALIENCEOFTHE,RELATIONSEVENIFTHEYDIDNOTINDICATEHOW @SALIENTTHE,RELATIONSHIPSHADTOBEINORDERTOSHIFTTHECAUSALTEXTUREOFTHE lELDFROMATYPE)))TOATYPE)6ENVIRONMENT4HEYWENTSOFARASTOSUGGESTAS
CRITERIATHATINTHETYPE)6CAUSALTEXTURETHECONTEXTUALENVIRONMENTBECOMESSO IMPORTANTTHATITTHREATENSTOOVERWHELMANDDISABLETHE,AND,RELATIONS BUTTHEYDIDNOTWORKTHISOUTINANYDETAIL(OWEVERTHEIMPORTANTPOINTHEREIS THATTHECONTEXTUALENVIRONMENTBYDElNITION CANNOTBEINmUENCEDDIRECTLYBY THEINDIVIDUALSYSTEM4HATMEANSTHATTHEINCREASINGSALIENCEOF,ASTHECAUSAL TEXTUREBECOMESTURBULENTCANNOTBEREDUCEDBYTHESTRATEGYOFANYINDIVIDUAL SYSTEMINTHATlELD4HETURBULENCEINTHElELDFOLLOWSITSOWNEVOLUTIONARYLOGIC ANDINDIVIDUALSYSTEMSCANDONOTHINGABOUTITnALONE4HISRAISESTHEQUESTION WHATDOESCOPINGBEHAVIOURMEANIFITCANNOTBEGROUNDEDINTHEINDIVIDUAL SYSTEMSACTINGTOREDUCETHETURBULENCEOFITSCONTEXTUALENVIRONMENT )FANINDIVIDUALSYSTEMINAlELDTHATISTAKINGONATURBULENTCAUSALTEXTURE
CANDONOTHINGABOUTTHATONITSOWNTHELEASTITCANDOISTOTRYTOESCAPEFROM IT4HISSTRATEGYOF@ESCAPEISONLYEFFECTIVEIFTHEREISSOMEPLACETOESCAPETOnTHAT ISIFTURBULENCEISNOTAHOMOGENEOUSCONDITIONINTHElELD0HYSICALEXAMPLES OFSUCHESCAPEMAYBEFOUNDINTHE"ERLIN7ALLTHE)SRAELn0ALESTINEWALLANDTHE 'REAT7ALLOF#HINA@GATEDRESIDENTIALCOMMUNITIESANDMILITARYBARRACKSAND MONASTERIESWITHBORDERPATROLSMOATSDRAWBRIDGESANDDEFENSIVEFORTIlCATIONS PROTECTINGTHECERTAINTYOFTHE@ORDERINSIDEFROMTHEDISORDEREDUNCERTAINTY PERCEIVEDTO LIEOUTSIDE&ORTHEEXCLUDEDOUTSIDERS THESEENCLAVESREPRESENT ANOTHERPERHAPSPERVERSE @ORDERWITHWHICH,AND,RELATIONSAREHIGHLY RESTRICTEDIFNOTIMPOSSIBLE4HESEBARRIERSFROMTHEOUTSIDERSPOINTOFVIEW REINFORCEENCLAVESTATUSANDESTABLISHIDENTITYBYCLEARLYDISTINGUISHING@/THER FROM@3ELF -C#ANNAND3ELSKY BELIEVESUCHBOUNDARIESINCREASEADAPTIVE CAPACITYWITHINBYRESTRICTINGTHE@/THERFROMSIPHONINGCRUCIALRESOURCES"UTIN ANDOFTHEMSELVESTHEYDONOTREDUCETURBULENCE &ORTHEINSIDERSINSUCHENCLAVESTHESTRATEGYINTHETURBULENTlELDCONSISTS
OFSECURINGANICHEOFRELATIVEPREDICTABILITYALLOWINGGROWTHANDDEVELOPMENT 4HISINVOLVESSETTINGUPREALORVIRTUALBARRIERSTOTHETURBULENTOUTSIDEWORLDTHAT MAYHAVETOBEDEFENDEDAGAINSTINCURSIONSTRIGGEREDINTHISTURBULENTCONTEXT "ECAUSEOFTHEOUTSIDETHREATTOTHEVIABILITYOFTHEINSIDEITISCRUCIALFORTHE LATTERTOUNDERSTANDTHE,FORCESINORDERTOAPPRECIATEHOWSUCHANICHEMIGHT BEDESIGNEDANDWHEREANDWHENSUCHNEWNICHESMIGHTBENEEDED/NEOFTHE SCENARIOSPRODUCEDBYTHETEAMMENTIONEDIN#HAPTERSUGGESTSTHATTHENATION BY NATIONPOLICYlXESTHATPOLITICALLEADERSINTHE5+53&RANCE'ERMANYAND OTHERCOUNTRIESENACTEDINnAMOUNTTOJUSTTHISnATTEMPTINGTOCREATE ENCLAVESOFSTABILITYWITHINATURBULENTlNANCIALENVIRONMENT4HEASSUMPTIONOF THOSEPOLITICALLEADERSSEEMSTOBETHATIFTHEIROWNCOUNTRYSBANKSREPATRIATETHEIR FOREIGNACTIVITIESANDLEAVEBORROWERSINTHEIRFOREIGNOPERATIONSDRYTHENTHISIS THEBESTFEASIBLESTRATEGYUNDERTHETRYINGCIRCUMSTANCES 4HISISWHATACTIVEADAPTATIONMEANSINATURBULENTCAUSALTEXTURE%MERY
AND4RIST BELIEVEDTHATINTURBULENTCONDITIONSSYSTEMSCOULDNOLONGER ACTALONEANDEXPECTTOBESUCCESSFUL)NSTEADTHOSESHARINGAlELDWOULDNEED
TOACTTOGETHER)NPURSUINGTHISLINEOFTHINKING-C#ANNAND3ELSKY EXPLOREDHOWITMIGHTBEPOSSIBLETOCREATEANICHEOFLESSUNCERTAINTYWHICH THEYCALLA@SOCIALENCLAVE4HEIRIDEAWASTHATWHILETHEVIOLENT,FORCESREIGN ALLAROUNDTHECOLLABORATINGSYSTEMSSHUTTHESEFORCESOUTFROMTHEENCLAVEBY SHARINGSUFlCIENTBASICVALUESANDRESOURCESTOENABLETHEMTOBUILDANDSUSTAIN INSTITUTIONALARRANGEMENTSTHATKEEPTURBULENCEONTHEOTHERSIDEOFTHEENCLAVES BOUNDARY3INCENOINDIVIDUALSYSTEMCOULDEVERHAVEENOUGHRESOURCESTOCREATE ANICHEBYITSELFTHISSTRATEGYWOULDREQUIRETHECOLLABORATIONOFMULTIPLESYSTEMS 4HISSEEMSTOUSTHEUNDERLYINGEXPLANATIONANDJUSTIlCATIONFOR%MERYAND4RISTS PROMOTIONOFCOLLABORATIONASTHEONLYEFFECTIVERESPONSETOTURBULENCE 4HEOTHERSCENARIOPRODUCEDBYTHETEAMMENTIONEDIN#HAPTEROFFERSEVIDENCE OFSUCHCOLLABORATIVEEFFORTSnBYCENTRALBANKERSJOINTLYLOWERINGINTERESTRATES ANDCOORDINATINGPOLICYBYGOVERNMENTSTRIPLINGTHEFUNDINGFORTHE)-&ANDBY REGULATORSJOINTLYCRAFTINGNEWGOVERNANCERULESFORTHEGLOBALlNANCIALSYSTEM )TMAYBEHELPFULTOTHINKOFMULTILATERALINSTITUTIONSSUCHAS"RETTON7OODS
THE)NTERNATIONAL-ONETARY&UNDANDTHE5NITED.ATIONSINTERMSOFTHISKIND OFCOLLABORATIVENICHE BUILDING3UCHCOLLABORATIVEARRANGEMENTSHAVEENABLED THESYSTEMSINTHElELDTOKEEPUNPREDICTABLEmUCTUATIONSOUTSIDETHEDOORAND HAVEENCOURAGEDLONG TERMINVESTMENTSTOBEMADE4HERELATIVESTABILITYANDTHE INVESTMENTSINTURNHAVEGENERATEDALEVELOFECONOMICDEVELOPMENTTHATWOULD OTHERWISEHAVEBEENIMPOSSIBLEINTHEMIDSTOFPOST 7ORLD7AR))UPHEAVALS7E WONDERWHATNEWORMOREEFFECTIVECOLLABORATIONSOFTHISKINDMAYEMERGEFROM THERECENTlNANCIALCRISISANDBECOMEINSTITUTIONALIZED 4HISLOGICSUGGESTSTHATASTRATEGYTOESCAPETURBULENCEBYCOLLABORATIVEACTION
NEEDSTOBEBASEDNOTONLYONCOMMONVALUESANDIDEALSBUTALSOONINSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTSTHATPROTECTTHECOLLABORATIVEENCLAVEAGAINSTINCURSIONSFROMOUTSIDE ANDFROMOPPORTUNISTICBEHAVIOURINSIDESEE%MERYAND4RISTSDISCUSSION OF@ORGANIZATIONALMATRIXESAND7ILKINSONAND9OUNGFORAMORERECENT ASSESSMENTOFCOLLABORATIONINTURBULENTCONDITIONS 7ITHINSTITUTIONSCOMEISSUES SUCHASGOVERNANCECOMPLIANCEENFORCEMENTANDPOWER/NCEAVIABLENICHEHAS BEENCREATEDITNEEDSTOBEADAPTEDACTIVELYOVERTIMETHROUGHACONTINUOUS PROCESSOFUPDATINGRENOVATINGANDIMPROVISINGSEE#HAPTER INTHEEVER CHANGINGTURBULENTCONDITIONSWITHWHICHITHASTODEAL7HENADAPTATIONSLOWS DOWNCRISISISNOTFARAWAY)FAGOVERNANCEORREGULATORYSYSTEMREALIZESTHATITIS IN@CRISISDUETOSOMETURBULENTFORCEINTHECAUSALTEXTURETHISISANINVITATIONTO RENEWTHENICHE#HAPTERINTHISVOLUMEDISCUSSESGOVERNANCEISSUESANDOFFERS ANEXAMPLE 7HILECOLLABORATIONISENACTEDATTHEMICRO LEVELnTHATISINDIVIDUALSYSTEMS
EXERCISESTRATEGICCHOICETOCOLLABORATEINFORGINGANDMAINTAININGINSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTSnATTHECONTEXTUALMACRO LEVELTHElELDEVOLVESINWAYSBEYOND THECONTROLOFANYONESYSTEM)NANIMPORTANTCONTEMPORARYDEVELOPMENT COMPLEXITYTHEORYHASTHROWNNEWLIGHTONTHISLINKBETWEENINDIVIDUALSYSTEM
OR@ACTOR STRATEGIESANDMACRO EVOLUTIONARYPROCESSES0RIGOGINESHOWEDHOWAT CERTAINSENSITIVEMOMENTSINTHEHISTORYOFASUFlCIENTLYLARGEANDCOMPLEXlELD WHICHHECALLED@BIFURCATIONSTHEDIRECTIONOFDEVELOPMENTOFTHEWHOLElELD DEPENDSUPONMINORmUCTUATIONSOFAFEWVARIABLES)NTERMSOF#44THISMEANS THATUNDERTHERIGHTCONDITIONSEVENASINGLEINDIVIDUALTHROUGHANINCISIVE DECISIONORSERENDIPITOUSINTERVENTIONCANENTRAINASERIESOFACTIONSTHATMAY ALTERTHETRAJECTORYOFAlELDASITEMERGESINTIME&OREXAMPLEIN#HAPTER 2OGGEMASHOWSHOWATSUCHASENSITIVEFORKINTHEROADTHEIDEASOFONEPERSON MAYMAKETHEDIFFERENCEFORAWHOLEPROVINCEORCOUNTRYTRYINGTOCOPEWITH CLIMATECHANGEARGUABLYATURBULENTlELDINACOUNTRYSUCHAS4HE.ETHERLANDS TODAY)TMAYWELLBETHATINTHEFUTURECOMPLEXITYTHEORYWILLPROVIDEFURTHER INSIGHTSTHATLINKMICRO ACTIONSANDDECISIONSINAlELDWITHMACRO EVOLUTIONARY TRAJECTORIESOFTHATlELD0ERHAPSTHISILLUMINATESWHYREMARKABLEINDIVIDUALSSUCH AS'HANDIAND-ANDELACANMAKESUCHABIGDIFFERENCEINSOCIETY -EANWHILEWEDEALWITHTURBULENTCAUSAL TEXTURESTHROUGHCOLLABORATIVE
ESCAPESTRATEGIES/NEDAYCOMPLEXITYTHEORYMAYTEACHUSTHATTHESTORYOF SYSTEMSANDORlELDSATANACTUALBIFURCATIONPOINTCANONLYBETOLDINRETROSPECT nTHATSTRATEGIZINGAROUNDSUCHAPOINTPROSPECTIVELYISIMPOSSIBLE#ONSIDERTHE ROLEOFSCENARIOSATSUCHAPOINTTHEYMIGHTBEABLETOTAKEPLAUSIBLEBIFURCATIONS INTOACCOUNTINADVANCEBUTNOTBEABLETOPREDICTWHICHROADTHESYSTEMWILL ACTUALLYTAKEATTHEBIFURCATIONSINCETHISISIRREDUCIBLEUNCERTAINTYANDTHEREFORE UNKNOWABLE)FTHATWERETOBETHECASECOLLABORATIVESTRATEGYWOULDSTILLBETHE BESTAVAILABLERECOURSE4HISMAYEXPLAINWHY@OPENINNOVATION@OPENSOURCEAND @CORPORATESOCIALRESPONSIBILITYSEE#HAPTER HAVEBECOMEBIGISSUESFORLARGE ANDSMALLORGANIZATIONSALIKEASTURBULENCEHASBECOMEAMOREPREVALENTCAUSAL TEXTUREINTHEIRlELDS(OWEVERITISTOOEARLYTODETERMINEIFTHECOLLABORATIVE OPTIONSNOWBEINGDEVELOPEDWILLSUFlCETODEALWITHTHEVERYBIGISSUESASSOCIATED WITHCONTEMPORARYTURBULENCEINCLUDINGCLIMATECHANGEDISEASEPANDEMICS lNANCIALCOLLAPSESTERRORISMANDOTHERCONTEXTUALDISRUPTIONSGENERATEDINTHE TURBULENTCAUSALTEXTUREOFTHElELDSWENOWINHABIT#HAPTERDISCUSSESSUCH DISRUPTIONS
7EACKNOWLEDGETHATAWEAKNESSINTHISBOOKISTHATTHEEXCLUDEDTHEPOOR ANDTHEEXPLOITEDAREUNDER REPRESENTED4HENORMATIVESTANCEOFCAUSALTEXTURES THEORYPROVIDESANOPENINGFORDISCUSSINGISSUESOFPOWERINCOLLABORATIONSAND OTHERENGAGEMENTSTHATCANINVOLVESCENARIOMETHODS7HILEWEFEELTHATSUCH ISSUESAREREALANDIMPORTANTWEACKNOWLEDGETHATTHISAREAHASNOTYETBEENGIVEN THEATTENTIONOFSCENARIOPRACTITIONERSANDSCHOLARSTHATITDESERVES
4HECONJUNCTUREOFCAUSALTEXTURETHEORYANDTHESCENARIOAPPROACHHASLEDTONEW DEVELOPMENTALIDEASINBOTHAREAS 7ENOWSEETHEHISTORICALLYCOINCIDENTALDEVELOPMENTOFTHETWOlELDSNOT
ASANACCIDENTBUTASTWOAREASOFHUMANACTIVITYBOTHADDRESSINGSOMEOFTHE PROMINENTHUMANNEEDSOFTHETIMESnPERHAPSWITHALACUNAINRELATIONTOPOWER INEQUALITIESTHATFUTUREWORKINBOTHAREASMIGHTEXPLICITLYATTENDTO 4HEPOWEROFSCENARIOSASUNDERSTOODINTHISBOOKLIESPARTLY INHELPING
DECISIONMAKERSAVOIDOVERCONlDENCEABOUTTHEFUTURE4HISPOWERCANNOTBE REALIZEDIFSCENARIOSARECONFUSEDWITHANEXTRAPOLATIONOFCURRENTCONDITIONS ONPROBABILISTICTERMSORWITHTHEORETICALCOUNTERFACTUALSPOPULATINGPARTSOF PROBABILITYDISTRIBUTIONSTHATLACKTHERELEVANTDATA7ESTRONGLYBELIEVETHAT THEBESTUSEOFSCENARIOSPUTSPROBABILITYMODELSINCONTEXTCLEARLYIDENTIFYING THECONDITIONSINWHICHTHEYAREINAPPROPRIATERATHERTHANPRETENDINGTHEYARE RELEVANTINAREASWHERENOEMPIRICALEVIDENCESUPPORTSTHEM 7EBELIEVETHATTHISBOOKHASMADEFOURIMPORTANTCONTRIBUTIONS
)TADVANCESOURUNDERSTANDINGOFTHENATUREOFTURBULENTCAUSALTEXTURES!ND ITDOESSOINAWAYTHATSHOULDHELPREmECTIVEPRACTITIONERSWHOAREDEPLOYING SCENARIOMETHODSTOBECOMEMOREEFFECTIVE
#AUSAL TEXTURES THEORYHAS BEEN SHOWN TOHAVEMANY INTERDISCIPLINARY HANDLESTHATCANBEDEPLOYEDINITSFURTHERDEVELOPMENT!FEWOFTHENEW STRANDS EMERGING FROM THISBOOK ARE THE LINKSWITH COMPLEXITY THEORY INSTITUTIONALIZATIONANDINEQUALITYANDPOWER4HEBOOKHASALSOPROVIDED GROUNDSFORFURTHEREXPLORATIONSUSING#44OFTHEKEYSUCCESSFACTORSOF FAIRNESSANDRESPONSIBILITYTHEIMPORTANCEOFLEADERSHIPINSTRATEGICCHOICE MICROnMACROCONNECTIONSACROSSLEVELSANDASPECTSOFlELDSSUCHASCONTEXTUAL DISTURBANCESBIFURCATIONPOINTSANDCO EVOLUTION
4HEBOOKHASHIGHLIGHTEDCERTAINISSUESOFMETHODOLOGYTHENATUREAND ROLEOFINTERVENTIONSINSYSTEMATICENQUIRYTHEIMPORTANCEOFTHECHOICEOF METHODTHEFEATURESDISTINGUISHING@SCIENTIlCVERSUS@ARTFULENQUIRYANDTHE ROLEOFCLARITY
4HEBOOKEXPLAINSWHYSCENARIOPRACTICESHAVEBEENGROWINGANDWHYTHEY ARERELEVANTINSEARCHINGFORANDDEVELOPINGCOLLABORATIVEINNOVATIONSTHATWILL ENABLEMANAGERSCONSULTANTSANDSCHOLARSTOADDRESSTURBULENCEEFFECTIVELY 4HESCENARIOlELDHASBENElTEDASWENOWSEEMORECLEARLYTHECONTRIBUTION THATTHElELDMAKESINDEVELOPINGRESILIENCEANDSUSTAINABILITYINTURBULENT CONTEXTS
)NSUMTHISVOLUMESANALYSISOFTHENATUREOFTURBULENCEANDHOWSCENARIOS CANHELPNAVIGATETURBULENTCAUSALTEXTURESCONTRIBUTESTOCONTEMPORARYEFFORTS
TO ADDRESS THE CRITICALQUESTIONSOFORGANIZATIONAL RESILIENCE AND SUSTAINABLE SOCIETIES