ABSTRACT
THENDESCRIBESTHERESEARCHMETHODOLOGYUSED&INDINGSINCLUDEATABLEOFCAUSAL STRUCTURESADESCRIPTIONOFTHEPREREQUISITESFORSUCCESSFULSCENARIOEXERCISESA SUMMARYOFTHEINTERVIEWRESULTSANDACATEGORIZATIONOF6ENEZUELASCAUSALTEXTURE )THENCONSIDERTHELEARNINGCONSEQUENCESOFDIFFERENTCAUSALTEXTURESANDREmECT UPONAPPROPRIATEUSESOFSCENARIOSINDIFFERINGDEGREESOFDISTURBANCE
6ENEZUELASRICHDEPOSITSOFOILWERElRSTDISCOVEREDIN)TBECAMEAFOUNDER MEMBEROFTHE/RGANIZATIONOF0ETROLEUM%XPORTING#OUNTRIES/0%# IN ANDISSTILLTHEONLYMEMBEROF/0%#INTHE!MERICAS/ILATTRACTEDFOREIGN INVESTMENTASWELLASANINmOWOFIMMIGRANTWORKERSMANYOFWHOMREMAINED ANDSETTLED4HEPARADOXOFTHE@OILCURSEISTHATITOFFERSEASYINCOMETOSOME
BUTSELDOMREDUCESWEALTHINEQUALITIES)TALSOCASTSASHADOWOVERTHEAGRICULTURAL SECTORANDNON OILENTERPRISESTHATALLSEEMUNATTRACTIVEBYCOMPARISON6ENEZUELA ISNOEXCEPTION)TSPOLITICALHISTORYSHOWSAPOSITIVECORRELATIONBETWEENPOLITICAL STABILITYANDTHEWORLDPRICEOFOIL )NDEEDHIGHOILPRICESBRINGDOUBLEBENElTSTO6ENEZUELA-OSTOBVIOUSLYITS
OILEXPORTSALESAREATHIGHERPRICESLESSOBVIOUSISTHERESOURCEVALUEEFFECT3INCE MUCHOF6ENEZUELASOILREQUIRESHIGHEXTRACTIONCOSTSPOTENTIALRESERVESWERE EXCLUDEDFROMEXPLOITABLERESERVESWHENTHESELLINGPRICEPERBARRELWASEXPECTED TOCONTINUETOBEAROUND53(OWEVERIFTHEEND PRICESOF53 AREEXPECTEDTOPERSISTHUGE6ENEZUELANPOTENTIALRESERVESBECOMEECONOMICALLY VIABLE4HISINCREASESTHELEVERAGETHATTHECOUNTRYHASINWORLDTRADE-OSTOF 6ENEZUELASOILTRADITIONALLYWENTTOTHE53BUTTHECURRENTGOVERNMENTHASBEEN DEVELOPINGNEWMARKETSTOREDUCETHISMARKETSHARE 4HElRSTDEMOCRATICELECTIONSIN6ENEZUELAINWEREWONBYTHE!CCION
$EMOCRATICA!$ PARTY4HEPERIODBETWEENANDTHEMIDSWAS DOMINATEDPOLITICALLYBY!$ANDTHE#HRISTIAN$EMOCRATS#/0%) ANDWAS CHARACTERIZEDBYCOUPSD£TATMILITARYRULE INCREASINGSOCIAL INEQUALITIESAND POPULARDISCONTENTEXTENSIVECORRUPTIONANOILPRICEBOOMACURRENCYCOLLAPSE ASTRUCTURALADJUSTMENTPROGRAMMEANDSUBSEQUENTRIOTS 4HEELECTIONSSAWTHEENDOFTHEPERIODOFPOLITICALDOMINANCEOF!$
AND#/0%)ANDIN(UGO#HÕVEZWASELECTEDPRESIDENTWITHAPERCENT MAJORITY6ENEZUELANSSOUGHTNEWREPRESENTATIONANDTWONEWPARTIES-OVIMIENTO 62AND0ROYECTO6ENEZUELAEMERGEDSTRONGLY!CCORDINGTOPOLITICALANALYST -ARINA/TTAWAY ONCEINPOWER0RESIDENT#HÕVEZBYPASSEDTHESTATE INSTITUTIONSANDAPPEALEDTOPOPULISTSUPPORTFORAPOLITICALCLEAN UP(ISSTYLE OFERRATICSEMI AUTHORITARIANISMWITHDIRECTMILITARYINVOLVEMENTINPOLITICS ERODEDBUSINESSCONlDENCEIN6ENEZUELATHE,ATIN!MERICANHEADQUARTERSFOR MANYMULTINATIONALBUSINESSES #HÕVEZFOCUSEDONAREFORMOFTHECONSTITUTIONANDWONPERCENTSUPPORT
FORACONSTITUENTASSEMBLYnTHE!SSEMBLEA.ACIONAL#ONSTITUYENTE!.# IN*ULY !LEGISLATIVEEMERGENCYWASDECLAREDALLOWINGTHE!.#TOlREJUDGESAND REFORMTHEJUDICIARY)N$ECEMBERPERCENTVOTEDINFAVOUROFEXPANDED PRESIDENTIALPOWERSANDALLOWEDFORTHElRSTTIMETHERE ELECTIONOFTHEPRESIDENT 4HERESULTWASAMORESTRONGLYCENTRALIZEDPRESIDENTIALSYSTEMWITHFEWERCHECKS ANDBALANCES"UTEVENTHOSECONSTITUTIONALCONSTRAINTSTHATREMAINEDWERERESISTED BY#HÕVEZ/TTAWAY SAYSTHAT#HÕVEZCONVINCEDTHENATIONALASSEMBLYTO AUTHORIZEHIMTOLEGISLATEBYDECREEBUTHISVETTINGOFJUDGESSUGGESTEDHEWAS AFTERPOLITICALCONTROLNOTJUDICIALEFlCIENCY #HÕVEZS0LAN"OLIVARBROUGHTTHEMILITARYINTOADEVELOPMENTROLE
#HÕVEZAPPOINTEDMANYMILITARYOFlCERSTOPOLITICALPOSITIONS(ISVISIONOFRAPID RADICALCHANGETOLERATEDNOLIBERALISMRESULTSDOMINATEDPROCESS(OWEVERTHE DEMOCRATICHERITAGEOFASTRONGANDINDEPENDENTPRESSUNIONSANDBUSINESSALL
RESISTEDTHISENCROACHINGAUTHORITARIANISM!S#HÕVEZCOULDNOTCONTROLTHESE INSTITUTIONSASCHISMDEVELOPEDANDHEBEGANTOHARASSTHEM5NDERTHE.OVEMBER ECONOMICREFORMPROGRAMMEDECREEDNEWLAWSRAISEDBUSINESSIRE -OREOVERTHESEMEASURESTOGETHERWITHTHREATSTONATIONALIZEBANKSTENDEDTO DISCOURAGEPRIVATEINVESTMENT!NATIONAL HOURSTRIKEIN$ECEMBERWAS FOLLOWEDBYAMARCHIN*ANUARYFOR#HÕVEZSOUSTER(EREMAINEDSURVIVING BOTHACOUPATTEMPTIN!PRILANDA DAYSTRIKETHATAIMEDTOTOPPLETHE GOVERNMENT /PPOSITIONPARTIESPINNEDTHEIRHOPESONARECALLREFERENDUMBUTWHENIT
WASEVENTUALLYHELDIN!UGUSTITONLYSTRENGTHENED#HÕVEZSPOSITION4HIS COMPLETEDTHEFRAGMENTATIONOFTHEOPPOSITIONPARTIESWHICHPULLEDOUTOFTHE ELECTIONSHANDING#HÕVEZANPERCENTVICTORYBUTWITHPERCENT ABSTENTIONS)NTHERUN UPTOA$ECEMBERREFERENDUM#HÕVEZPROPOSED AMENDMENTSTOTHECONSTITUTIONINCLUDINGFURTHERTRANSFERSOFPOWERFROMTHE LEGISLATIVETOTHEEXECUTIVEBRANCHESOFGOVERNMENTANDTHEREMOVALOFCONSTRAINTS ONTHERE ELECTIONOFTHEPRESIDENT)TWASALSOPROPOSEDTHATFOREIGNCURRENCY FROMOILSALESSHOULDBYPASSTHE#ENTRAL"ANK2ESTRICTIONSWEREINTRODUCEDON MEDIAFREEDOMS,ANDEXPROPRIATIONSWEREAPPROVEDANDIMPLEMENTED&OREIGN INVESTMENTSINTHEOILSECTORWEREFURTHERRESTRICTED(OWEVERTHEREFERENDUMS OUTCOMEWASAREJECTIONOFTHEPROPOSEDCONSTITUTIONALREFORMSSHOWINGTHATTHE DEMOCRATICPROCESSWASINDEEDWORKINGIN6ENEZUELA 0OLITICALSCIENTIST3USANNE'RATIUSIN0ICCONEAND9OUNGS SUMMARIZES
WELL
%MERYAND4RIST SUGGESTEDATYPOLOGYOFORGANIZATIONALENVIRONMENTSTHAT IDENTIlEDFOUR@IDEALTYPESAPPROXIMATIONSTOWHICHEXISTINTHE@REALWORLD OFMOSTORGANIZATIONS4HEYGAVETHEMDESCRIPTIVENAMESANDASSIGNEDTHEM CODESNUMBERED)TO)6INASCENDINGORDEROFDISTURBANCE-C#ANNAND3ELSKY EXTENDEDTHISINTOINCLUDEHYPER TURBULENCEATRANSITIONALSTEPTOTHE VORTICALENVIRONMENT"ABÓROG€LU NOWWIDELYACCEPTEDASTYPE64ABLE SETSOUTASUMMARYOFTHISFRAMEWORK
4ABLE #AUSALTEXTURES%NVIRONMENTSANDORGANIZATIONS
)NTHE@#HARACTERISTICSCOLUMNOF4ABLEONESEESTHATTHEFRAMEWORKSTARTS WITHSTATICCONDITIONSINTYPE)MOVESTHROUGHSTABILITYINTYPE))ANDDYNAMIC INTYPE)))TOTHE@GROUNDBEINGINMOTIONINTHETURBULENTlELDOFTYPE)64HEN PARTITIONINGENCLAVEANDVORTEXFORMATIONSTARTTOLEADONTOTHEPARADOXOFTYPE 6INWHICHTHERECO EXISTBOTHUNPREDICTABLECHANGEANDCRYSTALLINERIGIDITYIN THEVORTICALENVIRONMENT )NTHENEXTCOLUMNSUCCESSFULSTRATEGIESTOCOPEWITHTHESECONDITIONSSHOW
ADIFFERENTPROGRESSION4ACTICS AREGOODENOUGH IN TYPE ) PERFECTMARKET WHILESTRATEGYANDOPTIMALLOCATIONAREKEYTOSUCCESSINTYPE)))NTYPE))) THECOMPETITIVECHALLENGEREQUIRESOPERATIONALSKILLSANDBYTYPE)6VALUESARE NEEDEDASACOLLECTIVEDEFENCEAGAINSTTHEUNPREDICTABILITYOFTHETURBULENTlELDS )NHYPER TURBULENTCONDITIONSADAPTIVECAPACITYISKEYANDCOLLECTIVESTRATEGY PROVESTOODEMANDINGACHALLENGEFORTHESCARCERESOURCES#ONSEQUENTLYSOCIAL ENCLAVESFORMFROMAMONGTHE@HAVESANDSOCIALVORTICESFROMAMONGTHE@HAVE NOTS)NTHEHIGHLYCHALLENGINGCONDITIONSOFTHEVORTICALENVIRONMENTINTYPE 6INTERNALRESOURCESARENOTENOUGHTOBREAKOUTOFTHEENCLAVES"ABÓROG€LU
4ABLE #ONTINUED
SUGGESTSTHATTHEWAYOUTISFORTHEACTORSINTHElELDTODEVELOPNEW SKILLSANDBRINGINRESOURCESFROMOUTSIDETHEENCLAVES INORDERTOADDRESSTHE SITUATIONWITHACOLLECTIVESTRATEGYTHATINCLUDESALLACTORSPLUSOUTSIDERS(OWEVER ACCORDINGTO"ABÓROG€LU THEREMAYBENOESCAPEFROMTYPE6OTHERTHAN SURRENDERINGTOTHEPOSSIBILITYOFCOLLAPSE /RGANIZATIONALFORMSTHATTYPIFYEACHCAUSALTEXTUREARESHOWNINTHENEXT
COLUMN4HESEVARYFROMWIDELYDISTRIBUTEDINAlELDTYPE) TOCENTRALIZED TYPE)) ANDTOINTERDEPENDENTTYPE))) /NCETURBULENCEAPPEARSINTYPE)6 COLLABORATIVERELATIONSHIPSBETWEENDISSIMILARORGANIZATIONSAREEXPECTEDTOHELP &AILURESOFSUCHRELATIONSHIPSTENDTOPRODUCESOCIALENCLAVESINCONDITIONSOFHYPER TURBULENCEANDIFTHEHIGHLEVELOFDISTURBANCEISNOTQUELLEDANIMMOBILIZED GRIDLOCKOFSELF SERVINGENCLAVESRESULTSUNDERTHEVORTICALCONDITIONSOFTYPE6 ,EARNINGCONSEQUENCESARESHOWNINTHElNALCOLUMN4HESEMOVEFROMTRIAL
ANDERRORINTYPE)TOKNOWLEDGEOFTHEENVIRONMENTINTYPE))THENTOLEARNING TOCOMETOTERMSWITHOTHERSINTYPE)))4URBULENTlELDSREQUIREORGANIZATIONSTO LEARNNEWVALUES(YPER TURBULENTANDVORTICALCAUSALTEXTURESDEMANDANABILITY TOLEARNNEWWAYSFROMOTHERSANDINCLUDEDISCOVERINGNEWWAYSOFLEARNING ANDACCESSINGHELPFROMOUTSIDETHEENTITYORlELDITSELF)NTHEEXTREMECASEOF SURRENDERTHEESSENTIALLEARNINGISHOWTORESTARTIFTHElELDHASBEENANNIHILATED BUTTHEENTITYHASSURVIVED @/NEhLETSGOvANDSURRENDERSTOALARGERSYSTEM INORDERTOSEARCHFORANEWIDENTITYORCONlGURATIONATTHEAPPROPRIATETIME "ABÓROG€LUP ARGUES )NTHEPOLARIZEDCONDITIONSPREVALENTIN6ENEZUELACONSENSUSWITHREGARD
TOTHECLASSIlCATIONOFITSCAUSALTEXTURESHOULDNOTBEEXPECTED4HEREISWIDE SCOPEFORSUBJECTIVEINTERPRETATIONSANDLITTLEBYWAYOFINTERNATIONALLYRECOGNIZED METRICS(OWEVERITISDESIRABLETOGETANACCURATEDIAGNOSISOFASITUATIONSCAUSAL TEXTUREBECAUSEEACHONESUGGESTSADIFFERENTADAPTIVESTRATEGY)NAPPROPRIATE STRATEGIESCANBECOUNTERPRODUCTIVE-YMETHODOFRESEARCHSEEBELOW DELIVERSA REASONABLEBODYOFINFORMATIONFROMWHICHTOPRODUCEABALANCEDASSESSMENTOF THE6ENEZUELANSITUATION4HEFACTTHATPEOPLEFROMBOTHEXTREMESOF6ENEZUELAN SOCIETYCONSIDER ITBIASEDSUGGESTSTOMETHATVIEWSFROMALLSIDESHAVEBEEN REASONABLYWELLBALANCED)THEREFOREOFFERTHATASSESSMENTASAWORKINGHYPOTHESIS INORDERTOPROVIDEAFOUNDATIONFORCOMMENTSLATERINTHECHAPTERONTHESUITABILITY OFSCENARIOSTOMEET6ENEZUELASNEEDS
4HEPURPOSEOFTHEPROJECTWASTOEXPLORETHEVIABILITYOFASCENARIOEXERCISEAS AMEANSOFSTRUCTURINGASOCIALDIALOGUEACROSSTHEWHOLEOF6ENEZUELANSOCIETY $URINGTHEMIDS#LEM3UNTERS(IGH2OADAND,OW2OADSCENARIOSOF 3OUTH!FRICAHADSHOWNHOWSCENARIOSCAPTUREDTHEIMAGINATIONOFLEADERSFACING GREATCHANGE)LBURYAND3UNTER !DECADELATERTHE-ONT&LEURSCENARIOS
DEMONSTRATEDHOWTHEINVOLVEMENTOFFUTURELEADERSINBUILDINGTHESCENARIOS ANDTESTINGTHERESILIENCEOFTHEIREXISTINGSTRATEGIESINTHECONTEXTOFEACHSCENARIO COULDSHAPEDECISIONS+AHANE 3CENARIOSALSOPROVIDEDEXCELLENTMATERIAL FORTHEFURTHERCOMMUNICATIONOFTHEDECISIONSINTHEIRCONTEXTSTOAWIDER3OUTH !FRICANAUDIENCEANDBEYOND&ORTHISPROJECTTHEQUESTIONSWEREWHETHERTHIS COULDBEAUSEFULROUTEFORWARDFOR6ENEZUELAANDIFNOTWHYNOT!NDCOULD THECAUSALTEXTUREOF6ENEZUELASENVIRONMENTCONTRIBUTETOANUNDERSTANDINGOF THESITUATION 4HERESEARCH)UNDERTOOKASPARTOFAN-3CDEGREEINCHANGEMANAGEMENTIN
3EPTEMBEROFSETOUTTOADDRESSTHESEQUESTIONS)NORDERTOAVOIDFORCING ANYCAUSALTEXTUREONTOTHE6ENEZUELANSITUATION)DESIGNEDTHERESEARCHPROCESS USING'LASERAND3TRAUSSSGROUNDEDTHEORYFORANINITIALANALYSIS'LASERAND 3TRAUSS )ALSOESTABLISHEDAFRAMEWORKOFCRITERIABYWHICHTOCLASSIFYTHE CAUSALTEXTUREOF6ENEZUELAANDITSTRANSACTIONALENVIRONMENT $RAWINGUPONTHEHIGH LEVELCONTACTSOFSOMETHOUGHTLEADERSINTHECOUNTRY
A PROGRAMMEOF INTERVIEWSWAS ARRANGEDWITH BUSINESS CHURCH UNIVERSITY ANDPOLITICALPARTYLEADERSASWIDELYREPRESENTATIVEASPOSSIBLEOFTHEWHOLEOF 6ENEZUELANSOCIETY )NITIALINTERVIEWSWERECONDUCTEDWITHlVEINTERNATIONALLYRECOGNIZEDAUTHORI
TIESONSCENARIOTHINKINGANINTERNATIONALSHUTTLEDIPLOMATANDTHE6ENEZUELAN AMBASSADORTOA%UROPEAN5NION%5 COUNTRY4HENIN#ARACASINTERVIEWS WEREHELDDURING3EPTEMBER/FTHESEINTERVIEWEESWERESUPPORTERS OF#HÕVEZWERESUPPORTERSOFOPPOSITIONPARTIESANDWERE@NI NISNON COMMITTED /FTHE#HÕVEZSUPPORTERSTHREEWERECURRENTLYINPOSTANDTWOWERE FORMERMINISTERS(OWEVERINORDERTOCAPTURETHEVIEWSOFPEOPLEOTHERTHANTHE HIGHLYEDUCATEDELITEWHOCONSTITUTEDTHEBULKOFTHETHOUGHTLEADERS)ARRANGED TWOMORESETSOFINTERVIEWSIN,A6EGAARELATIVELYPOOR@BARRIOOF#ARACAS4HE lRSTWASWITHAGROUPOFSTUDENTSALLMALE FROMTHEPROVINCESCURRENTLYSTUDYING INTHECAPITAL4HESECONDWASANINFORMALIMPROMPTUMEETINGALSOIN,A6EGA ONAWET3UNDAYAFTERNOONMOSTLYATTENDEDBYFEMALESOFALLAGES3OME MOREVOICESWERECAPTUREDVIATHESEMEETINGS!LLSEEMEDTOBESUPPORTERSOF #HÕVEZ 4HREEWORKINGDOCUMENTSWEREPRODUCEDFROMTHERESEARCHPROCESSASWELL
AS4ABLE
PREREQUISITES FOR SCENARIOS DRAWING UPON THE INTERVIEWS WITH LEADING PRACTITIONERS
4HE#HORUSOF6OICESCLASSIFYINGTHEINTERVIEWMATERIALSACCORDINGTOTOPICS THATEMERGEDFROMTHEM
ACATEGORIZATIONOFTHE6ENEZUELANSITUATIONBYCAUSALTEXTUREFROMINTERVIEW MATERIALS
4HEFOLLOWINGSECTIONREPORTSTHElNDINGSFROMTHISPROCESS
Prerequisites for successful scenario exercises are fivefold
The will to listen !LLOFTHESCENARIOEXPERTSAGREEDTHATLISTENINGWASKEYTOTHESUCCESSOFSCENARIO EXERCISES4HERENEEDSTOBEAGENUINEWILLFORREmECTIVEDIALOGUEONTHEPARTOFALL PARTICIPANTS+AHANE EXPLAINSTHATTHISREQUIRESASEARCHFORDEEPERTRUTHS BEHINDTHEWORDSUSEDBOTHWITHINONESSELFANDWITHINOTHERS
Convening power #ONVENINGPOWER IS ESSENTIAL TO STARTINGANATIONAL SCENARIO BASEDDIALOGUE PROCESS#ONTINUINGLEADERSHIPISALSONEEDEDTOPROTECTITANDTODEFENDITSCAUSE THROUGHOUTTHEPROCESSSEE#HAPTERINTHISVOLUME 4HEINTERVIEWEESWERE DIVIDEDASTOWHETHERTHECONVENORFORTHE6ENEZUELANPROCESSSHOULDBEAGLOBAL AUTHORITYORAPROMINENT6ENEZUELANNATIONAL
An ability to meet 7ELL KNOWNSCENARIOTHINKER(ARDIN4IBBSPOINTEDOUTTHATASOMEWHATTURBULENT ENVIRONMENTISMORECONDUCIVETOSCENARIOWORKTHANASTABLEENVIRONMENTSINCE CHANGEISALREADYAREALITY(OWEVERWHENPARTICIPANTSFEARFORTHEIRLIVESASARESULT OFMEETINGFORTHESCENARIOWORKMANYNATURALLYCHOOSENOTTODOSO
Time and resources -AINTAININGABALANCEBETWEENTIMEANDRESOURCESONTHEONEHANDANDTHE AMBITIONOFTHEEXERCISEONTHEOTHERISAWAYTOAVOIDUNFULlLLEDORUNREALISTIC PROMISES
Technical competence 4ECHNICALCOMPETENCETORUNANDMANAGETHEPROCESSnCHALLENGINGASSUMPTIONS ANDADMINISTERINGITnISVITAL(OWEVERTHISSKILLCANBEBOUGHTINFROMABROAD IFNOTAVAILABLELOCALLY
The Chorus of Voices
4HISWASACOLLECTION)ORGANIZEDBYTOPICOFTHEVIEWSEXPRESSEDINTHELARGERSET OFINTERVIEWSABOUT6ENEZUELASCONTEXTANDTHEAPPROPRIATENESSANDFEASIBILITYOF ANATIONALSCENARIOEXERCISE )NSUMMARY)FOUNDFROMTHEINTERVIEWEESINTHATTHESUCCESSORFAILURE
OFANATIONALSCENARIODIALOGUEINITIATIVEIN6ENEZUELADEPENDEDUPONTHESUPPORT OFTHEPRESIDENTBUTASHISLEADERSHIPWASCONSIDEREDUNPREDICTABLEBYMANY CREDIBLECONVENINGPOWERAPPEAREDTOBEABSENT6ENEZUELAAPPEAREDTOBEA COUNTRYINWHICHSAYINGONETHINGANDDOINGSOMETHINGELSEWEREACCEPTEDTOTHE
POINTOFBEINGEXPECTED4ROMPENAARS IDENTIlED6ENEZUELAASANEXTREME CASEOF@PARTICULARISMINWHICHPROTECTINGAFRIENDJUSTIlESTELLINGALIEALBEITAT THECOSTOFERODINGTHECURRENCYOFTRUTH)FDISSEMBLINGISTHENORMITMAKESIT DIFlCULTTOGROWTRUSTSINCEDIALOGUEPARTNERSCANNOTBERELIEDUPON#ORRUPTION ALSOSEEMEDTOBEWIDESPREADANDWORSENINGINTHE7ORLD"ANK )NSTITUTERANKINGSSHOW6ENEZUELATOBECONSISTENTLYAMONGTHELOWESTPER CENTOFCOUNTRIESWORLDWIDEWITHREGARDTOTHECONTROLOFCORRUPTION 4HEETHICAL LOSSTOSOCIETYAPPEAREDTOMETOBEMORESIGNIlCANTTHANTHElNANCIALLOSSTO THEECONOMY)TUNDERMINEDTHETRUSTTHATISESSENTIALTODIALOGUEANDIMPEDED THEOPENLEADERSHIPOFCHANGE4HEMEDIAANDPOLITICALPARTIESACTEDTOPULLTHE POLARIZEDCOUNTRYINTWOOPPOSITEDIRECTIONS4HEMUTUALRESPECTTOBEENGENDERED INSCENARIOWORKWOULDBEEASILYUNDERMINEDBYTHEAGGRESSIVEMEDIACOVERAGE WITHITSEXTREMESOF@USANDTHEM 4HEINTERVIEWEESGENERALLYAGREEDTHATDIALOGUEWOULDHELPTHECOUNTRYTO
HEALWOUNDSATMANYLEVELS-OSTINTERVIEWEESSAWTHISNEEDBUTITWASUNCLEAR TOTHEMWHETHER0RESIDENT#HÕVEZUNDERSTOODIT6IEWSFROMTHEGOVERNMENT OFlCIALSINTERVIEWEDONTHEUSEFULNESSOFASCENARIOEXERCISERANGEDFROMTHE DISPARAGINGTOTHEFULLYSUPPORTIVE/PPOSITIONPEOPLEANDTHOSECOMMITTEDTO NEITHERSIDEGENERALLYFELTTHATANYMEANSOFDIALOGUEWOULDBEWELCOMEBUTONLY IFTHEPRESIDENTWERESUPPORTIVEOFIT(OWEVERTHEOPPOSITIONSACTIONWASNOT COORDINATEDORCONSISTENTWITHITSWORDSSINCESOMEPROPONENTSOFDIALOGUEWERE RELUCTANTTOFOLLOWUPONOPENINGSFORSCENARIOSFROMGOVERNMENTOFlCIALSWHEN THEYWEREOFFERED)TSEEMEDTOMEATTHETIMEAND)STILLBELIEVE THATDIALOGUE WOULDNEEDTOBEGINATSUB NATIONALORSECTORALLEVELSIFSCENARIOSWERETOTAKE ROOTIN6ENEZUELA3EVERALINTERVIEWEESMENTIONEDTHATSCENARIOSAREPERCEIVEDTO BEATECHNIQUEOFTHEBUSINESSSECTOR4HECHALLENGEOFINTRODUCINGTHECONCEPT ATNATIONALLEVELANDATTHESAMETIMEADDRESSINGSOMEOFTHEMAJORISSUESFACING THECOUNTRYISPERHAPSTOOMUCHTOEXPECTASAlRSTSTEP!NEXAMPLEOFASECTORAL INITIATIVEISTHATIN-ARCH6ENEZUELANFUTURIST*OS£,UIS#ORDEIROPRESENTED SOMEENERGYSCENARIOSFOR6ENEZUELAINTHECONTEXTOFTHE5NITED.ATIONS'LOBAL %NERGY3CENARIOSFOR 3UZANNE'RATIUS CITED IN0ICCONEAND9OUNGS REACHEDA SIMILAR
CONCLUSION
Categorization of the Venezuelan situation by causal texture
)NTHE6ENEZUELANRESEARCH)FOUNDATTRIBUTESOFSEVERALCAUSALTEXTURESINCLUDING ALLOFTHECHARACTERISTICSASSOCIATEDWITHTHEVORTICALENVIRONMENTSEE4ABLE
4ABLE 3UMMARYOFTHEMAINCHARACTERISTICSOFVORTICALENVIRONMENTS
)CONCLUDED IN THERESEARCHPAPERPRODUCED FROMTHISPROJECT INTHAT ONBALANCE6ENEZUELAPRESENTEDANEXTREMEVORTICALCASE)TSHOWEDTHETHREE PARADOXESOFVORTICALENVIRONMENTS"ABÓROG€LU nNAMELYTHECO EXISTENCE OF s CRYSTALLINERIGIDITYTOGETHERWITHUNPREDICTABLECHANGE s CLINCHEDCONNECTEDNESSANDCHAOTICmUCTUATIONS s STALEMATEDSYSTEMSTHATAREHIGHLYDIFFERENTIATEDANDHIGHLYINTEGRATEDAT ONCE
)N6ENEZUELAINMANYINTERVIEWEESFELTASTRONGUNDERCURRENTOFCHANGETHAT WASSEEMINGLYFROZENONTHESURFACE$IALOGUEBETWEENGOVERNMENTSUPPORTERS ANDOPPOSITIONPARTIESWASANEARIMPOSSIBILITYASRECRIMINATIONOVERTHESTRIKEOF TOWASSTILLALIVEANDDIVISIVEISSUE "ABÓROG€LU SAYSTHATTHEINABILITYTOPURSUELOGICALENDSPARTSOPPOSING
EACHOTHERGOALMORATORIUMANDTHEPRODUCTIVITYTRAPAREALLCHARACTERISTICSOFA
MALADAPTIVERESPONSECALLEDSTALEMATEWHICHSEEMEDTOCHARACTERIZETHESYSTEM IN )BELIEVETHATSINCETHEPROSPECTSOFCOMPLETEPOLITICALANDECONOMIC
STALEMATEHAVEATTENUATED4HEINCREASINGPRICEOFOILHASCERTAINLYENABLEDTHE GOVERNMENTTOAVOIDFACINGTHEECONOMICACCOUNTABILITYISSUESTHATWOULDHAVE SURFACEDHADTHEPRICERETURNEDTOTHEMID53SPERBARRELASEXPECTEDATTHE TIMEOFTHERESEARCH4HE$ECEMBERREFERENDUMRESULTCLEARLYSHOWSTHAT DEMOCRATICVOTINGISFUNCTIONING)NDEEDONECOMMENTATORONADRAFTOFTHIS CHAPTEREXPRESSEDTHEOPINIONTHAT6ENEZUELAINPRESENTEDANEXAMPLEOF ADISTURBEDnREACTIVECAUSALTEXTUREINTHATTHESITUATIONWAS@OLIGOPOLISTICAND DYNAMIC)REJECTTHISASITAPPEARSTOMETHATTHECOUNTRYISINTHETHROESOF PARADIGMATICCHANGEINITSECONOMICSOCIALANDPOLITICALPOLICIES#ONSEQUENTLY THEREISACOMPLETEABSENCEOFTHEDYNAMICSTABILITYCHARACTERISTICOFTYPE)))CAUSAL TEXTURES !NOTHERPOSSIBLEINTERPRETATIONOF6ENEZUELASENVIRONMENTSCAUSALTEXTURE
DURING DRAWS ATTENTION TO ITS HYPER TURBULENT FEATURES4HE DEFINING CHARACTERISTICOFTHISTRANSITIONALSTATEISTHATTHECOHESIONANDINTERDEPENDENCY THATWERECHARACTERISTICOFTHETURBULENTlELDSTARTTOGIVEWAYTOMORESELF CENTRED TENDENCIESTODEFENDLOCALINTERESTSEVENATTHECOSTOFOTHERMEMBERSOFTHESYSTEM ORTHEWHOLESYSTEM4HISSEEMEDCLEARLYTODESCRIBETHESITUATIONIN6ENEZUELA WHEREMANYINTERESTGROUPSACROSSTHESOCIALANDPOLITICALSPECTRUMHAVEFORMED ENCLAVES%NCLAVEINTERESTSPREDOMINATEOVEROBJECTIVESOFTHEWHOLECOUNTRY! PRIMEEXAMPLEISTHEPOLITICALSCENEWHEREINDIVIDUALPARTYINTERESTSHAVEBEEN DRIVINGTHEAGENDASOFALLOPPOSITIONPARTIESALMOSTALLOFWHICHWITHDREWFROM THEELECTIONSHANDINGTHEELECTORALVICTORYONAPLATETOTHESUPPORTERSOF 0RESIDENT#HÕVEZ4HEENTIREDEMOCRATICPROCESSHASBEENDAMAGEDASARESULTOF THEPURSUITOFENCLAVEINTERESTSWHERETHEADAPTIVECAPACITYFELLSHORTOFWHATTHE CONTEXTDEMANDED0ERHAPSTHEPOLITICALPOWERSHOWNBYSTUDENTSINMAY CHARACTERIZETHEMASANEMERGINGENCLAVE 6ENEZUELAINAPPEAREDTOCOMECLOSERTOHYPER TURBULENCETHANTHE
VORTICAL SITUATION) FOUND IN(OWEVERCLASSIFYINGACOMPLEXNATIONAL POLITICALECONOMICANDSOCIALSYSTEMANDITSENVIRONMENTINTERMSOFACAUSAL TEXTUREISONLYAlRSTSTEPINALEARNINGPROCESS
0ERHAPSMOREIMPORTANTTHANSEEKINGCONSENSUSONTHE@CORRECTCAUSALTEXTUREFOR THE6ENEZUELANSITUATIONISSEEKINGUNDERSTANDINGOFPOSSIBLESOLUTIONSFROMTHE THEORETICALCONCEPTS %MERYAND4RIST POINTEDOUTTHATATTYPE))PLACIDnCLUSTEREDENVIRON
MENT KNOWLEDGEOFTHEENVIRONMENTWOULDBECRITICALTOTHESUCCESSOFTHESYSTEM INQUESTION)TSEEMSTHATDIFFERENTPERCEPTIONSOFTHEENVIRONMENTBYVARIOUS
FACTIONSIN6ENEZUELACONTINUETOKEEPTHEOPPOSITEPOLESINTHECOUNTRYAPART 4HECONTINUINGPOLARIZATIONOFTHEMEDIAFEEDSTHESEDIFFERENTPERCEPTIONS!TAN INTERNATIONALSUMMITOF(ISPANICHEADSOFSTATEINLATE#HÕVEZEXPRESSEDHIS VIEWTHATTHEPREVIOUS!ZNARGOVERNMENTIN3PAINWAS@FASCISTOPPOSITIONPARTIES SAWITASMOREDEMOCRATICTHANTHEELECTED6ENEZUELANGOVERNMENT3CENARIO WORKOFFERSTHEOPPORTUNITYTO@RE PERCEIVETHEENVIRONMENTANDUNDERSTANDTHE PERCEPTIONSOFOTHERS!SNOTEDABOVETHESCENARIOEXPERTS)INTERVIEWEDBELIEVE ACRUCIALDETERMINANTOFSCENARIOSUCCESSISAWILLINGNESSTOLISTEN !TTYPE)))DISTURBEDnREACTIVEENVIRONMENT THECRITICALKNOWLEDGEREQUIRED
ISANUNDERSTANDINGOFWHENNOTTOELIMINATETHEADVERSARY%MERYAND4RIST SAYTHAT @STABILITYCANBEOBTAINEDONLYBYACERTAINCOMING TO TERMS BETWEENCOMPETITORSWHETHERENTERPRISESINTERESTGROUPSORGOVERNMENTS4HERE WEREFEWSIGNSOFSUCHAGREEMENTSEITHERIMPLICITOREXPLICITBETWEENCOMPETING FACTIONSIN6ENEZUELAATTHETIMEOFTHERESEARCH)NDEEDBOTHPOLITICALEXTREMES SEEMEDDETERMINEDTOELIMINATETHEOTHERANDBOTHWEREFAILINGTOLEARNTOCOME TOTERMSWITHOTHERSOFDIFFERINGOPINIONS !TTYPE)6TURBULENTlELDENVIRONMENT @WHATBECOMESPRECARIOUSxIS
HOWORGANIZATIONALSTABILITYCANBEACHIEVED)NTHESEENVIRONMENTSINDIVIDUAL ORGANIZATIONS HOWEVER LARGE CANNOT EXPECT TO ADAPT SUCCESSFULLY SIMPLY THROUGHTHEIROWNDIRECTACTIONS%MERYAND4RIST )NOTHERWORDSTHE INTERDEPENDENCIESAMONGECONOMICANDOTHERSOCIALACTORSBECOMECOMPLEXAND SATURATED4HISINTURNREQUIRESACOLLECTIVEEFFORTTOLEARNNEWVALUES%MERY AND4RIST ARGUETHATSOCIALVALUESBECOMETHENEW@POWERlELDSTHATALLOW ORGANIZATIONSTOADAPTEFFECTIVELYTOTHETURBULENCEINTHEIRENVIRONMENTSTHROUGH COLLABORATIVEENDEAVOURS4HEYALSOWARNTHATNEWVALUESTAKEALIFETIMETOLEARN RECOGNIZINGTHATVALUESCONTAINBOTHRATIONALANDIRRATIONALCOMPONENTS 6ENEZUELAINTHElRSTDECADEOFTHISCENTURYHASCHARACTERISTICSOFALLTHREE
OFTHESECAUSALTEXTURESTYPES)))))AND)6 ANDTHEIRLEARNINGNEEDS#HÕVEZ HASINTRODUCEDTHEFORMERLYMARGINALIZEDINTOTHEHEARTOFPOLITICALLIFEWITHA NEWSETOFSOCIALVALUES-ANYOFTHOSEVALUESWOULDPROBABLYBESHAREDBYA MAJORITYOFTHEPOPULATIONBUTAFORUMFORSHARINGTHEMISLACKING3OLONGAS THEHIGHLYPOLARIZEDMEDIAARETHEONLYCHANNELSOPENTOMASSCOMMUNICATION THE @USVERSUS THEM @INANDOUTGROUPDIVISION ISPERPETUATED THAT TYPIlES YETANOTHERCAUSALTEXTUREnNAMELYTHEPARTITIONOFAlELDINHYPER TURBULENT CONDITIONS6ENEZUELANEEDSAMEANSOFCOMMUNICATINGACROSSTHESOCIALAND POLITICALSPECTRA4HERESEARCHPROJECTIDENTIlEDTHISNEEDANDPROPOSED SCENARIOSASAPOSSIBLEWAYFORWARD)NTHETRAUMAOFTHEPOST STRIKESITUATIONIN INWHICHTHE6ENEZUELANECONOMYHADBEENPARALYSEDFORDAYSTHERE INITIALLYAPPEAREDTOBENODESIREONTHEPARTOFTHEGOVERNMENTTOCOLLABORATE WITHOPPOSITIONPARTIESORPEOPLE4RUSTWASATTHELOWESTLEVELSIMAGINABLE/NCE AGAINSCENARIOTHINKINGCOULDHAVECONTRIBUTEDTOWARDSOFFERINGAWAYFORWARD FORTHECOUNTRYORFORPARTSOFIT(OWEVERTHEREWASNOSUGGESTIONFROMTHE
RESEARCHWORKTHATSCENARIOSORANYOTHERSOCIALDIALOGUEPROCESSCOULDLEADTOA COLLABORATIVEAPPROACHBETWEENTHEPOLARIZEDFACTIONSOF6ENEZUELANSOCIETY4HE BESTTHATCOULDHAVEBEENACHIEVEDWOULDHAVEBEENSOMEMUTUALAPPRECIATION PERHAPSTHEINITIATIONOFTHESHARINGOFNEWVALUES)NDEEDWHENAHIGHLYPLACED REPRESENTATIVEOFTHEGOVERNMENTOFFEREDTOSUPPORTTHESCENARIOINITIATIVETHE ONLYPRECONDITIONBEINGTHATITRESPECTEDTHETHENNEWCONSTITUTIONAPPARENT SUPPORTERSOFDIALOGUEFROMTHEOPPOSITIONWERERELUCTANTTOPARTICIPATEFORFEAR THATTHEPROCESSMIGHTBEMANIPULATEDTOMEETTHEENDSOFTHEGOVERNMENT4HEY ALSOFEAREDFORTHEIRPERSONALSAFETYIFTHEYWERETOPARTICIPATE4HISAPPEAREDTO METOPRESENTANEXAMPLEOFINSUFlCIENTADAPTIVECAPACITY%NCLAVEOBJECTIVESWERE DOMINATINGTHENEEDSOFTHEWHOLEANDTHEENVIRONMENTWASNOTCONDUCIVETOTHE DIALOGUEITSEEMEDTOREQUIRESODESPERATELY 5NDER THEHYPER TURBULENTCONDITIONSDESCRIBEDBY-C#ANNAND3ELSKY
DIFFERENCESINHOWACTORSPERCEIVEANDDEPLOYTHEIRADAPTIVECAPACITYARETHE CRUCIALDETERMINANTOFHOWWELLTHEYWILLCOPE4HISDICTATESWHATTHEPEOPLENEED TOLEARN!RTICULATINGTHELEARNINGNEEDSWHETHERTHEYARELEARNINGFORCOLLECTIVE STRATEGY FORMULATIONOR LEARNINGHOWTOAPPRECIATEDIFFERENCES THAT SEPARATE FACTIONSOPERATINGINAHYPER TURBULENTCONTEXT ARECRITICALCONSIDERATIONSWHEN DETERMININGTHESCOPENATUREANDAMBITIONOFASCENARIOEXERCISEATNATIONALLEVEL 4HEIMPLICATIONOFTHEDISTURBEDnREACTIVECAUSALTEXTUREISTHATINTERDEPENDENCE BETWEENTHEMAINACTORSBECOMESIMPORTANTANDNEEDSTOBEACKNOWLEDGEDAND DEALTWITH4HEMAINACTORSIN6ENEZUELACOULDNOTENVISAGETHISATTHETIMEOFTHE RESEARCHPROJECT/NTHECONTRARYTHEREWERESUFlCIENTSIGNSOFSOCIALTRIAGEFORIT TOBECLASSIlEDASHYPER TURBULENTIFNOTVORTICAL#ONSEQUENTLYTHEDIALOGUEOF SCENARIOSWASNEEDEDTOENABLEMEMBERSOFALLPOLARIZEDFACTIONSTOUNDERSTAND THEVIEWSOFOTHERSTODEVELOPNEWSKILLSANDTOLOOKATWAYSOFDOINGTHINGS DIFFERENTLY3INCEMOREOFTHESAMESORTOFBEHAVIOURSEEMEDUNLIKELYTOADDRESS THEINCREASINGDIVISIONSWITHIN6ENEZUELANSOCIETYANDNOSHORT TERMSOLUTION APPEAREDAVAILABLETHEPROPOSALFORSCENARIOSOFAPPRECIATIONWASPUTFORWARDAS ASMALLBUTPOTENTIALLYPRODUCTIVESTEPINTHERIGHTDIRECTION )N3UZANNE'RATIUSCITEDIN0ICCONEAND9OUNGS ARGUEDTHAT
@THEINTERNATIONALCOMMUNITYSHOULDREDIRECTDEMOCRACYPROMOTIONSTRATEGIES IN6ENEZUELAFROMANELECTORALTOABILATERALANDMULTILATERALDIALOGUEAPPROACH )NOTHERWORDS'RATIUSSEESDIALOGUEASTHEKEYREQUIREMENTFORDEMOCRACYTO PROSPERIN6ENEZUELAnAMOREIMPORTANTTARGETOFINTERNATIONALSUPPORTTHAN THEELECTIONPROCESSHITHERTOSEENASTHETOPPRIORITY4HISCORROBORATESBOTHTHE NEEDFORDIALOGUEEXPRESSEDATTHETIMEOFTHERESEARCHPROJECTANDITSCONTINUED VALIDITY
3CENARIOSHAVEPROVENTRACKRECORDSASEXCELLENTVEHICLESFORSOCIALDIALOGUEIF THEYAREAPPROPRIATELYSCOPEDANDPROPERLYSTRUCTURED!SDISCUSSEDIN#HAPTER SCENARIOSMAYBECONSIDEREDUSEFULTODECISION MAKERSOPERATINGINTURBULENT ENVIRONMENTS(OWEVERMYRESEARCHPROJECTANDMYWORKWITHSCENARIOSIN PRACTICEHAVELEDMETOCONSIDERTHATSCENARIOSMIGHTBEUSEDINDIFFERENTWAYSIN DIFFERENTCAUSALTEXTURES)OUTLINETHISNOTIONBELOWASAPRACTITIONERSWORKING HYPOTHESISANDRECOGNIZETHATITCALLSFORFURTHEREXPLORATION )N&IGURE)PROPOSEASCHEMETHATIDENTIlESTHEPURPOSEOFSCENARIOSMOST
LIKELYTOBEACHIEVEDINTHEVARIOUSCAUSALTEXTURES4HEHORIZONTALAXISUSESTHE APPRECIATEINmUENCECONTROL!)# FRAMEWORKDEVELOPEDBY7ILLIAM%3MITHIN SEE3MITHAND$AVIS )TISCONCERNEDWITHORGANIZINGTHERELATIONSHIP BETWEENPURPOSEANDPOWER&OREXAMPLETHEMOSTTHATCANBECONTROLLEDBYTHE MEMBERSOFANYORGANIZATIONISWHATHAPPENSWITHINTHEORGANIZATIONORSYSTEM ITSELF0EOPLEANDGROUPSOUTSIDETHEORGANIZATIONMAYBECAPABLEOFBEINGINmUENCED BYTHATORGANIZATIONIFTHEYAREINITSIMMEDIATETRANSACTIONALENVIRONMENT"UT BEYONDTHATENTITIESINTHECONTEXTUALENVIRONMENTCANONLYBEAPPRECIATEDAS THEYAREBEYONDTHEPOWERlELDOFTHEORGANIZATIONSINmUENCE
7HEREASATRELATIVELYLOWLEVELSOFDISTURBANCEITISPOSSIBLETOENVISAGESCENARIOS DESIGNEDTOALLOWACTORSTOCONTROLTHESYSTEMHIGHERLEVELSOFDISTURBANCEIN THECAUSALTEXTUREMAKECONTROLBYANYSINGLEORGANIZATIONORACTORIMPOSSIBLE 3CANNINGTHESUCCESSFULSTRATEGYANDORGANIZATIONCOLUMNSOF4ABLESHOWS THATACTORSHAVELESSDIRECTCONTROLASTHECAUSALTEXTUREOFTHEORGANIZATIONINITS ENVIRONMENTBECOMESINCREASINGLYDISTURBED)NTHEPLACIDnRANDOMCONDITIONOF TYPE)TACTICSAREAPPROPRIATEBEHAVIOURWHILEDECISION MAKINGISDECENTRALIZED ANDDECISION TAKERSAREINFULLCONTROLOFTHEIROWNORGANIZATIONSACTIONS)N TYPE))STRATEGYREPLACESTACTICSANDCENTRALIZEDHIERARCHIESCOMEINTOPLAYTO TAKETHESTRATEGICDECISIONS4HISINVOLVESSEPARATINGSTRATEGICDECISIONSFROMTHE ACTIONANDDIRECTCONTROLOF@LINEMANAGERS5NDERTHEDISTURBEDnREACTIVETYPE )))CAUSALTEXTUREOTHERORGANIZATIONSCOMEINTOPLAYASINTERDEPENDENCEBETWEEN ORGANIZATIONSEMERGES4HISMEANSTHATSTRATEGYBECOMESANOTHERSTEPREMOVED FROMACTIONANDLINECONTROL)NFACTCONTROLNOLONGERRESIDESWITHINTHESYSTEM ITSELFINTHESENSETHATSUCCESSFULSTRATEGYRELIESUPONANORGANIZATIONSSUCCESSIN INmUENCINGOTHERS!CTORSINTHETRANSACTIONALENVIRONMENTBECOMECRITICALTO SUCCESSANDCANBEEXPECTEDTOINmUENCETHEORGANIZATION)TWOULDBEPOSSIBLE TOINVOLVESOMETHIRDPARTIESINASCENARIOEXERCISEINSUCHCIRCUMSTANCESINORDER TOENCOURAGETHESHARINGOFUNDERSTANDINGANDTHEFORMULATIONOFMUTUALLY ACCEPTABLESTRATEGIES %MERYAND4RIST MAKEITCLEARTHATINTURBULENTlELDSTYPE)6 VALUES
BECOMEPOWERlELDS6ALUESCANNOTBEIMPOSEDPARTICULARLYNOTUPONPEOPLEIN THETRANSACTIONALANDCONTEXTUALENVIRONMENTS ANDSOINmUENCEISEXERCISEDVIA PEOPLESADOPTIONOFNEWVALUESORTHEIREXPRESSIONOFEXISTINGLATENTVALUES4HUS UNDERTHESECONDITIONSMUTUALINmUENCEREPLACESCOMMANDANDCONTROLAND SCENARIOSDESIGNEDTOMAXIMIZETHEADOPTIONOFCOMMONLYHELDVALUESMAYWELL BESUCCESSFUL3INCETHESEVALUESMUSTBESHAREDBYALLACTORSINTHEENVIRONMENT CONTROLISWRESTEDFROMTHEORGANIZATIONITSELF)NDEEDITMAYBEARGUEDTHATTHISIS EXACTLYWHATHAPPENEDWITHTHE3OUTH!FRICANSCENARIOS"OTH3UNTERAND+AHANE USEDSCENARIOSTOCONVINCETHELEADERSOFPOLITICALPOLAROPPOSITESTOAPPRECIATE THEPOSITIONOFTHEOTHERSANDTOADOPTNEWVALUESTHATWOULDEMBRACETHEWHOLE OFTHERACIALSPECTRUMOFTHECOUNTRY3UCHCOHESIVEVALUESWERENEWTOBOTHTHE !FRIKANERREGIMEANDTOTHE!FRICAN.ATIONAL#ONGRESS!.# SCENARIOSWERE INSTRUMENTALINTHEIRADOPTION 7HENTURBULENCEGIVESWAYTOHYPER TURBULENCECOLLABORATIVEENDEAVOURS
AREABANDONEDASORGANIZATIONSFOCUSTHEIRSCARCEADAPTIVECAPACITYONTHEENDS OFTHEIROWN@ENCLAVE7HILEITMAYBEARGUEDTHATSCENARIOSOFCONTROLMAY BEAPPROPRIATEWITHINENCLAVESTHETRANSACTIONALCONTEXTOFHYPER TURBULENCE IMPLIESIMMENSEUNCERTAINTYDUETOTHEIMPACTOFHIGHLYTURBULENTFORCESON THEENCLAVESTHEMSELVES4HEREFOREANAPPRECIATIONOFWHATISGOINGONINTHE WIDERCONTEXTMAYWELLBETHEMOSTAPPROPRIATEPURPOSEFORSCENARIOSPOSSIBLY ADDRESSINGTHEEMERGINGGAPSBETWEENTHEENCLAVES4HEENERGYSCENARIOSOF
IN6ENEZUELAMAYBEEXAMPLESOFAPPROPRIATEAPPRECIATIVEPURPOSE)NTHETYPE 6VORTICALENVIRONMENTAPPRECIATIONOFTHEOTHERISWHATISNEEDEDTORELAXTHE DOGMATHATKEEPSTHEPARTSPOLARIZEDANDTHESYSTEMINSTALEMATE"ABÓROG‡LU POINTSOUTTHATALITTLELEARNINGMAYBEENOUGHTOMELTTHEICEOF THEAPPARENTLYFROZENSYSTEMBUTALSOACKNOWLEDGESTHATABANDONMENTMAYBE THEONLYAVAILABLESTRATEGY )NDEEDONEOFTHERECOMMENDATIONSOFTHERESEARCHIN6ENEZUELAWAS
THATSOMEINITIALSTEPSTOWARDSDIALOGUESHOULDBESETUPPARTICULARLYSCENARIOS OFAPPRECIATIONINCERTAINSECTORSOF6ENEZUELASUCHASENERGYOREDUCATION )NTERNATIONALDEVELOPMENTPLANNER&RANCISCO3AGASTIPOINTEDOUTINTHEINTERVIEW FORTHISPROJECTTHATINTHECASEOFNATIONALSCENARIOSFOR0ERUITTOOKTENYEARSOF SUCHSMALL SCALEPREPARATIONBEFORETHECOUNTRYWASABLETOCONTEMPLATEAFULLY mEDGEDNATIONALSCENARIOEXERCISE4HISAPPEAREDTOTHEPROPONENTSOFSCENARIOS IN6ENEZUELAINTOBETOODISTANTATIMEHORIZON)NAPPRECIATEINmUENCE CONTROL!)# TERMSTHEIRAMBITIONWASBEYONDTHEIRPOWERlELDANDWASTHEREFORE UNACHIEVABLEIN6ENEZUELAIN )NNATIONALSCENARIOPROCESSESCOUNTRYSCENARIOFACILITATOR"ARBARA(EINZEN
CONSIDERSTHATMORETHANHALFTHETIMEISUSUALLYNEEDEDTOEXPLORETHEDRIVING FORCESTHATHAVEBROUGHTTHECOUNTRYTOITSCURRENTSITUATIONINTERMSTHATARE MEANINGFULTOPARTICIPANTSFROMAWIDEVARIETYOFBACKGROUNDS6ICKERS WOULDSEETHISASAMEANSOFESTABLISHINGA@REALITYJUDGEMENT2ECOGNIZINGWHERE WEAREANDWHATHASBROUGHTUSHEREEVENTHOUGHWEAGREETOSEEHISTORYTHROUGH THEDIFFERENTLENSESTHATWEEACHUSE CONSTITUTESAMAJORlRSTSTEP4HE4RUTHAND 2ECONCILIATION#OMMISSIONALLOWEDTHISTOHAPPENIN3OUTH!FRICAWITHSTUNNING NEWPERCEPTIONSOFREALITYINALLPARTSOFSOCIETYASACONSEQUENCE3CENARIOSCAN STARTTHISPROCESSINAWORKSHOPSETTINGANDPROVIDETHESEEDCORNFORAWIDER BROADCASTING&OREXAMPLEANUNDERSTANDINGOFTHEHISTORICALIMPACTOFOILON 6ENEZUELAANDOTHEROIL RICHCOUNTRIESFORBETTERANDFORWORSEWOULDENABLEA WIDESPREADUNDERSTANDINGOFTHESTATUSQUOBYALLPARTSOF6ENEZUELANSOCIETY 4HISMAYBEACRITICALPREREQUISITETOAGREEINGFUTUREACTIONORUNDERSTANDING POSSIBLEFUTURES 3CENARIOTHINKINGCREATESA@SPACEFORDIALOGUEANDSCENARIOEXERCISESPROVIDE
ANINFRASTRUCTUREFORCOMMUNICATIONAMONGTHEVARIOUSENCLAVESORFACTIONSIN SOCIETY4HEHISTORYOFTHEWORLDSHOWSTHATEVENTSHAVERARELYUNFOLDEDACCORDING TOEXPERTPREDICTIONS4HOSEWHOADAPTTOTHEIMPROBABLEEMERGENTREALITYMOST QUICKLYARETHELONG TERMWINNERS$ARWINCAMETOTHISCONCLUSIONINTHEEVOLUTION OFSPECIES3TUART+AUFFMANREACHEDTHESAMECONCLUSIONINHIS#OMPLEX!DAPTIVE 3YSTEMS4HEORYWITHREFERENCETOORGANIZATIONALBEHAVIOUR+AUFFMAN 3CENARIOTHINKINGENABLESPEOPLEANDORGANIZATIONSTOCONTEMPLATETHEWAYIN WHICHDIFFERENTFUTURESMAYLOOKBYEXAMININGTHELIMITSOFWHATMIGHTPLAUSIBLY OCCURINEXTREMECIRCUMSTANCES
6ENEZUELAASASYSTEMAPPEARSTOBEUNDERGOINGTECTONICSHIFTSINSOCIALECONOMIC ANDPOLITICALSPHERES4HERULESOFTHEGAMEAREINmUXINCLUDINGCONSTITUTIONAL CHANGESWITH FAR REACHINGCONSEQUENCES/IL INCOMEAT RECORDHIGH LEVELS IS FUNDINGTEMPORARYSOLUTIONSTOSTRUCTURALPROBLEMS4HEDEMANDSONRESOURCES AREEXTREMEANDPEOPLEAREUNABLETOACCOMMODATETHECHANGESNEEDEDINA POLARIZEDSOCIETYWITHFEWMECHANISMSFORDIALOGUE)F6ENEZUELAISTOMOVE FORWARDITWILLHAVETOLOOKWITHINITSELFTOlNDTHEADAPTIVECAPACITYEVENGIVEN THEBIGEXTERNALDRIVINGFORCESTHATHAVEBEENBUFFETINGITANDWILLCONTINUETO DOSO )TSEEMSTOMETHATMODESTSTEPSARENEEDEDTOBUILDCOMMUNICATIONS ANDCOOPERATION3CENARIOSCANHELPSOCIALDIALOGUEBUTADESIRETOHEALTHEDEEP WOUNDSHASTOCOMEFROMWITHIN6ENEZUELA)FTHEDIALOGUEPROCESSISIMPOSED FROMOUTSIDESCENARIOSWOULDALMOSTCERTAINLYBEINAPPROPRIATESINCETHEYWOULD BECOMEAFORUMFORNEGOTIATIONSAMONGTHEPARTIESNOTAVEHICLEFORENRICHING ORENLARGINGPERCEPTIONS 4HEJARGONOFBUSINESSTOWHICHSCENARIOSHAVEBEENTETHEREDFROMTHEIRORIGIN
GIVESSCENARIOSAVENEEROFCAPITALISMTHATMAKESTHEMUNWELCOMEINCERTAIN QUARTERS)FOUNDTHISTOBETHECASEAMONGSOMEPEOPLEINTERVIEWEDIN6ENEZUELA !NEWVOCABULARYISNEEDEDTOACCOMMODATETHESOCIALASPIRATIONSFORALL4HE EXPLORATIONOFMULTIPLEPOSSIBLEFUTURESOFFERSACOGNITIVETOOLFORMANYDIFFERENT CAUSALTEXTURESSOLONGASTHEAMBITIONOFTHEEXERCISEISCOMMENSURATEWITHTHE CONTEXT!NUNDERSTANDINGOFTHECAUSALTEXTUREOFTHEENVIRONMENTANDTHESYSTEM INQUESTIONCANHELPTOENSURETHATTHISISACCOMPLISHED4HEDEBATESURROUNDING ITISESSENTIALTOEXPANDINGTHEUSEOFSUCHCLASSIlCATIONSANDUNDERSTANDINGTHEIR IMPLICATIONSFORMOUNTINGSCENARIOEXERCISES 4HE3OUTH!FRICANEXPERIENCESHOWSTHATSCENARIOSOFFERANEVOLUTIONARYPROCESS
TOACHIEVESUSTAINABLECHANGETHATWOULDOTHERWISEBECONSIDEREDREVOLUTIONARY )FUSEDAPPROPRIATELYIN6ENEZUELAMULTIPLEFUTURESANALYSISCOULDYETPROVETOBE INSTRUMENTALTOTHECAUSEOFTHE"OLIVARIAN2EVOLUTIONORTOANYOTHERAPPROACH TOTHELASTINGGOODOFTHECOUNTRYITSPEOPLEANDITSINSTITUTIONS
