ABSTRACT
THEYINCORPORATEELEMENTSOFFAIRPROCESSnIFFORNOOTHERREASONTHANTHATTHE PROCESSACTIVELYINCORPORATESTHEPERSPECTIVESANDVALUESOFMULTIPLESTAKEHOLDERS )FSCENARIOPRACTITIONERSCONSCIOUSLYCONSIDERTHEVARIOUSELEMENTSTHATUNDERPIN FAIRNESSTHEREBYMAKINGANIMPLICITPRACTICEMOREEXPLICIT)BELIEVEITWOULDBOTH ENHANCETHEIMPACTANDREACHOFTHEIRWORKANDMAKETHESCENARIOPROCESSFAIRER &AIRNESSISONEOFTHEKEYDIMENSIONSOFTRUSTSOBYEXTENDINGANIMPLICITLYFAIR PROCESSTOAWIDERlELDOFACTORSANDSTAKEHOLDERSTHESCENARIOROLL OUTOFFERSA MEANSTOACHIEVENOTONLYAFAIREROUTCOMEBUTALSOAMORETRUSTEDONE )HAVESTRUCTUREDTHISCHAPTERASFOLLOWS)lRSTEXAMINEHOWTHEINCREASING
COMPLEXITYANDRELEVANTUNCERTAINTYINTURBULENCERENDERTHEFORMATIONOFTHE COMMONGROUNDIMPORTANT)THENBRIEmYSUMMARIZETHETHEORETICALUNDERPINNINGS OFFAIRNESSANDSUGGESTHOWUNDERSTANDINGTHEMCANIMPROVESCENARIOPRACTICE ANDITSACCEPTANCE!FTERTHAT)DESCRIBETHEISSUESTHATCONTRIBUTETOFAIRPROCESS MOSTOFWHICHAREIMPLICITLYPARTOFSCENARIOPRACTICE)THENARGUETHATSCENARIOS BYBRINGINGTOGETHERMULTIPLEWORLDVIEWSOFTHEFUTUREINTOASHAREDFRAMEWORK PROVIDETHEPOTENTIALTOCREATETHECOMMONGROUNDSOTHATATTENDINGTOFAIRNESS INSCENARIOPRACTICECANPRODUCEAFAIREROUTCOME
)NAGLOBALIZEDINTERCONNECTEDWORLDISSUESBECOMEMORETRANSPARENTANDDIVISIONS MOREAPPARENT4HEISSUESTHATRECEIVEWIDESPREADATTENTIONANDGENERATECONCERN TENDTOBETANGLEDCOMPLICATEDAFFAIRS3UCH@WICKEDPROBLEMSASTERMEDBY 2ITTELAND7EBBER REmECTTHECOALESCENCEOFSOCIALTECHNICALANDPOLITICAL DILEMMASTHATCANCUTACROSSTHEBOUNDARIESOFCOMMUNITIESORGANIZATIONSOR NATIONS!LTHOUGHPOLICY MAKERSANDGOVERNMENTDEPARTMENTSARENEATLYDIVIDED INTOCONSTITUENTPARTSCOMPLEXHUMANTECHNOLOGICALANDENVIRONMENTALSYSTEMS ARENOT3OMOREOFTENTHANNOTDECISIONSIMPACTINGUPONSUCHMULTIFACETED ISSUESAREMADEWITHASINGLE ISSUELENSGIVINGRISETOCONmICTBETWEENMULTIPLE STAKEHOLDERGROUPSAFFECTEDBYCUMULATIVEIMPACTSORUNINTENDEDCONSEQUENCES 3UCH CONTROVERSIES THEN COMPOUND THE SYSTEMIC VOLATILITY OF THESE ALREADY TURBULENTENVIRONMENTS 7ICKEDPROBLEMSARECHARACTERIZEDBYUNCERTAINFACTSANDINVOLVEHIGHSTAKES
ANDDISPUTEDVALUES!LTHOUGHSOMEAPPEARTOREQUIREURGENTDECISION MAKING THISISDIFlCULTTOACHIEVEDUETOTHECOMPLEXINTERRELATIONSHIPSAMONGDIVERSE ACTORSWHEREPOWERRELATIONSANDROLESAREmUIDANDDYNAMIC%XAMPLESINCLUDE THEDIVISIONOFHIGHLYVALUED INDIVISIBLEORlNITE RESOURCES THEPARTITIONOF TRANSBOUNDARYRISKSORETHICALLIFE OR DEATHISSUES7ICKEDPROBLEMSDEFYSOLUTIONS BYANALYTICALMETHODSASTHEYCOMETOGETHERINNON LINEARCOMBINATIONSTHATARE NOTONLYUNEXPECTEDBUTWHICHCANALSOFUNDAMENTALLYCHANGETHETEXTUREOF THECONTEXTnFOREXAMPLETHE3EPTEMBERATTACKSBY"IN,ADENSMEN ORTHE!)$3EPIDEMICSEE#HAPTERSANDINTHISVOLUMEFORSIMILARANALYSES OFHOWSINGLEEVENTSCANCHANGECAUSALTEXTURES 7ICKEDPROBLEMSEXHIBITTHE TYPE)6TURBULENTlELDCONDITIONSIDENTIlEDBY%MERYAND4RIST WHERE THEINHERENTNATUREOFTHElELDCOMBINEDWITHTHEDYNAMICINTERACTIONAMONG DISPARATEPARTIESHASAMPLIlEDLEVELSOFUNCERTAINTYANDCREATEDEMERGENTlELD FORCES )TISALMOSTHALFACENTURYSINCE%MERYAND4RIST DEMONSTRATEDTHAT
ORGANIZATIONALSURVIVALANDEFFECTIVENESSINTURBULENTSOCIALlELDSREQUIREDNEW FORMSOFCOOPERATIONBYFORMERCOMPETITORSUNDERTHERUBRICOFSHAREDVALUES 4HEYBELIEVEDTHISREQUIREDANEWSETOF@VALUESTHATHAVEOVERRIDINGSIGNIlCANCE FORALLMEMBERSINTHElELDANDATTHATTIMETHEYSUGGESTEDTHATTHISWOULDBE AVERYSLOWPROCESS%STABLISHINGSUCHSOCIALVALUESWOULDREQUIRENEWFORMSOF COOPERATIVERELATIONSHIPSWHEREPARTIESWOULDHAVEALIGNEDTHEIRINTERESTSAND CREATEDMUTUALGOALSINORDERTOCREATEACOMMONFUTUREDESIREDBYALLIETHE @COMMONGROUND 'OODSCENARIOPRACTICEDRAWINGADIVERSEGROUPOFDISPARATESTAKEHOLDERS
TOGETHERTOSEARCHFORSHAREDFUTUREINTERESTSOFFERSAPOTENTIALFRAMEWORKFOR BUILDINGTHECOMMONGROUNDnANDTODOSOPERHAPSFASTERTHAN%MERYAND4RIST ORIGINALLYSUGGESTEDSEE#HAPTERINTHISBOOK 4HESCENARIOSTORIESPRODUCED
BYTHISPROCESSINTURNTHENOFFERTHEPOTENTIALTOMOVETHECOLLABORATIVESCENARIO BUILDINGEXERCISECONDUCTEDAMONGALIMITEDGROUPOFKEYSTAKEHOLDERSTOAWIDER GROUPABLETOSHAREACOMMONFRAMEWORKANDLANGUAGE-YRESEARCHSHOWSTHAT THISCOOPERATIVEPROCESSOFDISCOVERINGTHECOMMONGROUNDHASTHEPOTENTIALTO TRANSFORMTHETURBULENTlELDINTOALESSCOMPLEXENVIRONMENTFORTHOSEINVOLVED UNDERPINNEDBYASHAREDSETOFVALUESORACOMMONETHICALCODE 2ESEARCHSUGGESTSTHATFAIRNESSISPARTICULARLYIMPORTANTFORDECISION MAKING
THATINVOLVESLONGTIMESCALESBOTHFORNEGOTIATIONANDDECISIONMAINTENANCE !LBIN9OUNGB nANDMANYOFTHESEARETYPE)6ENVIRONMENTS #ONSIDERINGFAIRNESSASANISSUEISUSEFULNOTONLYFROMTHEETHICALPERSPECTIVE INORDERTOACHIEVEACCEPTABLEDECISIONSBUTALSOFROMAPRAGMATICPERSPECTIVE TOENSURECOMPLIANCEANDTOAVOIDCONSTANTCONFRONTATIONSANDSTALEMATEORTHE NEEDFORENFORCEMENTMECHANISMSTOIMPLEMENTUNPOPULARDECISIONS)NCONTRAST FAIRNESSISOFLESSSIGNIlCANCEINTHEDECISION MAKINGPROCESSFORTHEHIERARCHICAL TYPE))ENVIRONMENTSWHICHAREMORE LIKELYTOHAVECENTRALIZEDCONTROLAND COORDINATIONSTRUCTURESORTYPE)))ENVIRONMENTSWHEREPOWERSTRUGGLESBETWEEN COMPETINGORGANIZATIONSINTERESTGROUPSOREVENGOVERNMENTSARELIKELYTOTAKE PLACE%MERYAND4RIST
&AIRNESSISEMBEDDEDINOURSOCIALVOCABULARYYETPARADOXICALLYINMANYSITUATIONS ITAPPEARSTOBENEITHERWELLDElNEDNORWELLRESEARCHED&AIRNESSCANBEDElNEDAS @FREEFROMBIASFRAUDORINJUSTICEEQUITABLELEGITIMATEIMPARTIAL/XFORD%NGLISH $ICTIONARY 4HISDElNITIONRAISESTHEFUNDAMENTALINTRACTABLEQUESTION@&AIR TOWHOM4HISQUESTIONISONETHATMANYSCENARIOEXERCISESWOULDBEWISETO CONSIDEREXPLICITLY)NDEEDTHEQUESTIONOF@WHOMDEPENDSENTIRELYUPONTHESIZE OFTHEGROUPIDENTIlEDASTHATSHARINGACOMMONSENSEOFIDENTIlCATIONnFROM ORGANIZATIONORNEIGHBOURHOODTOEVENANATIONALITYORTHEHUMANRACEASA WHOLE2ORTY !NOUTCOMETHATISFAIRTOAGROUPOFPARTIESATONELEVELMAY NOTBEFAIRATADIFFERENTGEOGRAPHICORTEMPORALSCALEIETHEWIDERINTERNATIONAL LEVEL ORTOFUTUREGENERATIONS #ONCEPTIONSOFFAIRNESSVARYDEPENDINGUPONCULTUREAGEGENDERANDSTATUS
9ETTHECONCEPTOFFAIRNESSISBELIEVEDTOBEAUNIVERSALNOTION2AWLS 6IEWSONFAIRNESSARECONTAINEDINTHE"IBLETHE4ALMUDANDIN#HINESEWRITINGS 2ECENTRESEARCHINDICATESTHATTHEFRONTALLOBEOFTHEHUMANBRAINTHEDORSOLATERAL PREFRONTALCORTEX$,0&# ISPROGRAMMEDTOSUPPRESSBASICHUMANSELF INTEREST ANDENABLESHUMANSTOCONTROLFAIRNESSWITHINSOCIETY0HILLIPS ANDTHAT PRIMATESALSOSANCTIONTHOSEWHODONOTMEETTHEIRCONCEPTOFFAIRNESS$E7AAL
&AIRNESSASWEHAVECOMETOUNDERSTANDITINTHE7ESTFALLSINTOTWOBASIC CATEGORIES4HElRSTATTENDSTOMETHODANDTHESECONDTORESULTS0ROCEDURALOR PROCESSFAIRNESSISACHIEVEDWHENTHEMETHODBYWHICHADECISIONISREACHED ISFAIRWHILEOUTCOMEORSUBSTANTIVEFAIRNESSISTHERESULTOFADECISIONTHATIS INTRINSICALLYAFAIRONE5NDOUBTEDLYACHIEVINGOUTCOMEFAIRNESSISMOREDESIRABLE THANACHIEVINGPROCESSFAIRNESSASTHERESULTISGENERALLY MOREIMPORTANTTHAN THEMEANS(OWEVERTHEREAREINSTANCESWHERENOOUTCOMEWILLBEFAIRTOALL PARTIESIETHEALLOCATIONOFARESOURCEORBURDENFORWHICHTHEREISNOADEQUATE COMPENSATION SUCHASTHESITINGOFANUCLEARWASTEPROCESSINGPLANTORTHE PROVISIONOFLIFE SAVINGDRUGSTOONLYAPROPORTIONOFALARGERGROUP)NSUCH CASESPARTIESMAYAGREETOAFAIRPROCESSANDACCEPTTHERESULTINGSOLUTIONEVENIF THEOUTCOMEISANUNFAIRONE!LBIN2ENNETAL 4HEREARE THREEMAJORPHILOSOPHICALDOCTRINESONWHICH THECONCEPTSOF
FAIRNESSAREBASEDnEQUALITYEQUITYANDPRIORITYnWHICH)SUMMARIZEBELOW 0ARTIESTENDTOVIEWFAIRNESSFROMTHEIROWNDISTINCTVANTAGEPOINTANDRESEARCH !LBIN9OUNGA INDICATESTHATTHEPREFERENCEOFDOCTRINEWILLDEPEND UPONSEVERALFACTORSMOSTNOTABLYTHEPARTIESPERCEPTIONSOFPOWERANDSTATUS 3TRONGPARTIESFAVOUREQUITYWHILEWEAKERPARTIESFAVOUREQUALITY3IMILARLYMEN GENERALLYFAVOUREQUITYANDMOSTWOMENEQUALITY6ERYSMALLCHILDRENWILLCHOOSE STRICTEQUITYBUTASTHEYGROWOLDERTHEYWILLFAVOUREQUALITYBEFOREREVERSINGTO EQUITYWHENTHEYMATURE
Equity (proportionality)
&AIRNESSISADISTINCTPRINCIPLEINJUSTICEnIN'REEKTIMESKNOWNASNATURALJUSTICE !RISTOTLEWASTHElRSTTOARTICULATETHISFORMOFJUSTICEBASEDONBALANCEARGUING THATSOCIALGOODANDBADSHOULDBEALLOCATEDINPROPORTIONTOTHECONTRIBUTIONOF EACHPARTYTOTHEASSET(EDISTINGUISHEDBETWEENJUSTICEANDEQUITYANDRECOGNIZED THATNOSYSTEMOFJUSTICECOULDANTICIPATEEVERYCIRCUMSTANCETHATAROSEANDTHAT INCERTAINCASESLEGALJUDGEMENTSREQUIREDADAPTATIONINORDERTOACHIEVEFAIRNESS 4HISDISTINCTIONHASCONTINUEDnFOREXAMPLEINTHE5+THE,ORD#HANCELLORHAD THEPOWERTOREDRESSHARSHJUDGEMENTSUTILIZINGASYSTEMOFEQUITYCOURTSSEPARATE FROMTHECOURTSOFLAWUNTILTHECOURTSWEREMERGEDINTHEEARLYTHCENTURY 7ITHEQUITYRESOURCESREWARDSSUCHASHONOURSPUBLICPROPERTYORPROlTS
ORBURDENSAREMEANTTOBEDISTRIBUTEDPROPORTIONALLYTORELEVANTCONTRIBUTIONS INPUTS #ONTRIBUTIONSCANTAKEMANYFORMSWEALTHSKILLSINTELLIGENCEEFFORT nSUCHASHOURSWORKEDORTASKSCOMPLETED(OWEVERTHESECONTRIBUTIONSARELIKELY TOBEVALUEDDIFFERENTLYBYTHEVARIOUSPARTIESNEGOTIATINGANDALTHOUGHTHEYARE SOMETIMESEASYTOMEASURETHEYCANALSOBEQUALITATIVERATHERTHANQUANTITATIVE BYNATUREMAKINGTHEALLOCATIONSPROBLEMATIC3IMILARPROBLEMSOCCURWHENTHE RESOURCESAREINDIVISIBLESUCHASAFAMOUSPAINTINGORCHILDRENINADIVORCE
%QUITYDISTRIBUTIONCANBEUSED FOR SEVERALPROCEDURALMECHANISMS THAT )DISCUSSINMOREDETAILBELOWSUCHASROTATIONSALEANDCOMPENSATION4HE PARTITIONOF0AKISTANAND)NDIAISANEXAMPLEOFDIVISIONBASEDONTHEPRINCIPLES OFEQUITY!LLCASHANDGOVERNMENTDEBTWASDIVIDEDINARATIOOFPER CENTBASEDONTHEPROPORTIONOFTHEPOPULATIONATTHATTIME WHILEOTHERDIVISIBLE GOODSWEREDIVIDEDINARATIOOFPERCENTTHEROUNDINGOFTHEPROPORTION /NEOFTHEMOSTIMPORTANTINDIVISIBLEITEMSnTHENAME)NDIAnWASKEPTBYTHE LARGERHALF9OUNGB
Equality (egalitarianism)
%QUALITYISALSOCALLEDIMPARTIALJUSTICEORPARITY)TISBASEDONTHEPHILOSOPHYOF *EAN *ACQUES2OUSSEAU ANDTHEPRINCIPLETHATALLMENAREBORNEQUAL4HIS IMPLIESALLPARTIESSHOULDRECEIVEANEQUALSHAREOFREWARDSANDBURDENSIRRESPECTIVE OFTHEIRNEEDSDIFFERINGRESOURCESANDCONTRIBUTIONS)TPROVIDESCLEAR CUTCHOICES ANDCANTHEREFOREBEPERCEIVEDTOPROVIDEAFAIROUTCOME7HILEINPRINCIPLETHIS APPROACHTOEQUALSHARESOREQUALSACRIlCEAPPEARSTOBEUNAMBIGUOUSECONOMIC COSTSANDBENElTSAREOFTENUNFAIRLYDISTRIBUTED4HISMEANSTHATACHIEVINGAN OUTCOMEOFEQUALITYWHENPARTIESAREUNEQUALISDIFlCULTTOACHIEVEANDALSOOFTEN FAILSTOPROVIDEANEFlCIENTDISTRIBUTIONOFRESOURCES $ECISIONSBASEDONEQUALITYRARELYRECTIFYCURRENTINEQUALITIESPERPETUATING
ANYEXISTINGPERCEPTIONSOFUNFAIRNESS&OREXAMPLEDURING THEMIDS 3WEDENINITIATEDMULTILATERALNEGOTIATIONSREGARDINGTRANSBOUNDARYAIRPOLLUTION BASEDONRESEARCHPROVINGTHATFOREIGNSULPHURDIOXIDE3/ EMISSIONSWERE RESPONSIBLEFORACIDIlCATIONOFTHEIRLAKES%QUALITYHADBEENESTABLISHEDASTHE DISTRIBUTIVEPRINCIPLEININTERNATIONALNEGOTIATIONSSOTHERESULTANT(ELSINKI 0ROTOCOLMANDATEDAUNIFORMPERCENTREDUCTIONOF3/EMISSIONSWITHOUT TAKINGINTOCONSIDERATIONTHATCERTAINPARTIESSUCHAS.ORWAYAND3WEDENWERE BENElTINGMOREFROMTHEAGREEMENT/THERLESSDEVELOPEDCOUNTRIESRELIANTON POLLUTINGTECHNOLOGIESWERElNANCIALLYPENALIZEDBYTHESEOBLIGATIONS 4HEPERCEIVEDUNFAIRNESSOF THISOUTCOMEAND SOMEOTHER INTERNATIONAL
AGREEMENTS LED TO NEWER AGREEMENTS TAKING AWIDER PERSPECTIVE TO INCLUDE ECONOMICENVIRONMENTALANDOTHERFACTORSWITHTHEBIASSHIFTINGTOWARDSEQUITY 4HESUBSEQUENT3ECOND3ULPHUR0ROTOCOLTOTHE#ONVENTIONON,ONG 2ANGE4RANSBOUNDARY!IR0OLLUTIONAIMEDATACHIEVINGAPERCENTREDUCTION INACIDRAININORDERTORIDTHE%UROPEANCONTINENTOFITSEFFECTSWASSIGNEDBASED ONPRINCIPLESOFEQUITYANDEFlCIENCY4HE2EGIONAL!CIDIlCATION)NFORMATION 3YSTEM2!).3 MODELDEVELOPEDAT THE )NTERNATIONAL )NSTITUTEOF!PPLIED 3YSTEMS!NALYSIS))!3! WASUSEDTODETERMINEAFAIRBALANCEASPARTIESPERCEIVED ITTOBEPOLITICALLYNEUTRALSCIENTIlCALLYSOUNDANDANACCEPTABLEALTERNATIVETO ARBITRARYlXED PERCENTAGEREDUCTIONS
Priority (compensatory or redistributive justice)
4HETHIRDPRINCIPLEOFFAIRNESSISBASEDONFAIRDISTRIBUTIONPRIORITYORNEEDAND HASMOSTFAMOUSLYBEENSTUDIEDBY2AWLS )TMAINTAINSTHATONECANNOT ACHIEVEFAIRNESSBYUSINGTHESYSTEMOFEQUITYBETWEENCONTRIBUTIONSANDGAINS WHICHWILLUSUALLYREWARDTHOSEALREADYWELLENDOWED UNTILRESOURCESHAVEBEEN DIVIDEDSOASTOIMPROVETHEWELL BEINGOFTHEWORST OFFMEMBERSOFSOCIETYUPTO ABASICMINIMUMLEVELOFWELL BEINGTOMEETBASICHUMANNECESSITIES(OWEVER ANUNRESOLVEDANDPROBLEMATICISSUEISHOWTODElNETHISBASELEVELWHICHCAN RANGEFROMACCESSTOHEALTHEDUCATIONEMPLOYMENTORASAFEENVIRONMENT4HE CRITERIASPECIFYINGTHEMOSTSUITABLEORMOSTNEEDYPARTIESALSOREQUIREDElNITION POTENTIALLYANEMOTIVEPROCESS2EDISTRIBUTIVEJUSTICEISATTRACTIVEFROMTHEVICTIMS POINTOFVIEWBUTISLIKELYTOBERESISTEDBYTHOSEMEMBERSOFSOCIETYBENElTING FROMTHESTATUSQUO
Other principles of fairness
0RECEDENTHASSOMETIMESFORMEDTHEBASISFOROUTCOMEFAIRNESSnANDIT ISA PARTICULARFEATUREOFCOMMONLAWCOUNTRIES!FAIRDECISIONHEREWILLBEBASEDON APREVIOUSCOMPARABLEDECISIONWHICHSERVESASARULEFORDETERMININGALLOCATIONS 0RECEDENTISCOMMONLYUSEDINPLANNINGLAWLABOURMANAGEMENTNEGOTIATIONS ANDRENTNEGOTIATIONS 3O CALLEDSUPER FAIRNESSORENVY FREEDISTRIBUTIONSAREBASEDONTHEPRINCIPLE
THATNOPARTYSHOULDPREFERTHEPORTIONOFANOTHERTOHISOWN"AUMOL
@&AIRPROCESSPROFOUNDLYINmUENCESATTITUDESANDBEHAVIOURSTHATARECRITICALTO HIGHPERFORMANCE)TBUILDSTRUSTANDUNLOCKSIDEAS+IMAND-AUBORGNE P 3CENARIOSBYTHEIRVERYNATUREINCORPORATEELEMENTSOFFAIRPROCESSANDMOST SCENARIOPRACTITIONERSIMPLICITLYINCORPORATESOMEIFNOTALLOFTHESEASPECTSINTO THEIRWORK)BELIEVETHATARTICULATINGTHEMANYISSUESUNDERPINNINGFAIRPROCESS CANENHANCESCENARIOWORK 0ROCEDURALFAIRNESSORFAIRPROCESSREFERSTOTHEABILITYOFALLPARTIESTOTAKEPART
INTHEDECISION MAKINGPROCESSANDITCONCERNSTHEMETHODSUSEDFORARRIVING ATANACCEPTABLEDECISION)NLAWTHISISTERMEDAUDIALTERAMPARTEMnHEARTHE OTHERSIDE(OWTHESELECTIONOFTHE@OTHERSIDEISSTRUCTUREDANDHOWMUCH INVOLVEMENTOFTHIRDPARTIESTHEREISWILLAFFECTTHEFORMATIONOFTHECOMMON GROUND4HEREAREANUMBEROFASPECTSTOINVOLVEMENTINTHEPROCESSnNAMELY ATTENDANCEINITIATIONDISCUSSIONANDDECISIONANDACHIEVING&ORMOREDETAILED INFORMATIONREFERTOTHE.OMINAL'ROUP4ECHNIQUE.'4 THEMOSTCOMMON FORMATFORTHISINGROUPWORKVANDE6EN
(AVINGDISCUSSEDTHEVARIOUSCONCEPTIONSOFFAIRNESS)NOWBRIEmYSETOUT THEISSUESTHATDETERMINEPROCEDURALFAIRNESS-ANYARGUETHATEVENWHENAFAIR OUTCOMECANNOTBEACHIEVEDAFAIRPROCESSWILLGOALONGWAYTOENSUREACCEPTANCE LINKEDTOPERCEPTIONSOFRESPECTANDFAIRTREATMENT,INDAND4YLER
Attendance
!MOSTCRITICALASPECTOFFAIRPROCESSISWHETHERALLSTAKEHOLDERSAFFECTEDBYORWHO AFFECTTHESITUATIONAREREPRESENTEDINTHEPROCESSANDTHATTHEYHAVEAGENUINE OPPORTUNITYTOPARTICIPATE4HECHOICEOFREPRESENTATIVESISVERYIMPORTANTSINCE THEIDENTITYOFPARTICIPANTSTHEIRNUMBERANDATTRIBUTESWILLAFFECTTHEFAIRNESS OFTHEPROCESS5NFORTUNATELYALLTOOOFTENTHEREAREMINORITYGROUPSWITHLITTLE MEANSOFlNDINGREPRESENTATIONINDECISION MAKINGPROCESSESAFFECTINGTHEM)N SOMECASESPARTIESCANNOTPHYSICALLYATTENDnFOREXAMPLEFUTUREGENERATIONSOR OTHERSPECIES)NTHESECASESTHEQUESTIONISHOWTHEIRINTERESTSCANBEMEASURED ANDWHOCANORSHOULDREPRESENTTHEMFAIRLYASTHEPRESENCEOFOUTSIDERSCANAFFECT THEBALANCEANDCREATEASYMMETRY4HERISEINCIVILSOCIETYGROUPSPURPORTINGTO REPRESENTTHESECONSTITUENTSHASBEENDRAMATICOVERTHEPASTYEARS'LASIUSETAL 7HATEVERTHECHOICEOFREPRESENTATIONITISESSENTIALTHATALLPARTICIPANTS COMMITTOATTENDINGTHEWHOLEPROCESSnPARTIALATTENDANCEISUNACCEPTABLE)N ADDITIONPARTICIPANTSHAVETOHAVETHEFREEDOMTOMOVEFROMTHEPARTYLINEAND EXPLOREALTERNATIVEVIEWPOINTS4HIS@REPRESENTATIONASPECTINSCENARIOSCONTRASTS WITHTHEAPPROACHWHICHSEARCHCONFERENCESTAKEINTHISREGARDnWHEREPARTICIPANTS ATTENDASINDIVIDUALSNOTASREPRESENTATIVESSEE#HAPTERINTHISBOOK
Initiation
4HECODESOFINITIATIONAREANESSENTIALPARTOFTHEISSUEOFPROCESSFAIRNESS)N ORDERTOBEFAIRALLPARTIESREQUIREANEQUALCHANCETOFORMULATEANDAGREEUPON THESESTRUCTURESANDCODES(EREISSUESHINGEAROUNDTHEABILITYOFALLPARTIESTOBE HEARDANDTOHAVETHEIRINTERESTSAIRED4HEDESIGNOFTHEPROCESSIETHEAGENDA TIMESCALESFORPARTICULARTASKSASWELLASTHEPHYSICALFEATURESOFTHELOCATIONAND THEMODESOFCOMMUNICATIONnINCLUDINGTHELANGUAGESUSEDFORTHEPROCESSAND THEAVAILABILITYOFCOMMUNICATIONCHANNELS WILLALSOBEIMPORTANTTOESTABLISH PROCESSFAIRNESSPARTICULARLYWHENPARTIESDONOTSHARETHESAMELANGUAGEAND CUSTOMS
Discussion and decision
/PENANDFRANKDISCUSSIONWITHOUTREPERCUSSIONISAFEATUREOFPROCEDURALFAIRNESS )NPRACTICETHISMEANSENSURINGTHATALLPARTIESAREHEARDANDMULTIPLEISSUESARE PARTOFANINTEGRATEDWHOLEnINCORPORATINGTHELINKAGESBETWEENTHESEISSUESAND
THERELATIONSHIPSAMONGVARIOUSPARTIES4HEEXTENTTOWHICHTHISISACHIEVABLE WILLDEPENDUPONTHEABILITYOFTHEFACILITATORTOENSURETHATTHEAGREEDCODEOF ENGAGEMENTISADHEREDTOANDTHATTHEISSUESAIREDAREEQUALLYREPRESENTEDAND REPRODUCEDDURINGTHESCENARIO BUILDINGPROCESS.ATURALLYOFKEYIMPORTANCEIS THATTHEFORUMINWHICHTHESCENARIOPROCESSTAKESPLACEPROTECTSTHOSEINVOLVEDIN CANDIDENGAGEMENTFROMUNFAIRCONSEQUENCESDUETOTHISBEHAVIOURELSEWHERE /NEOFTHESTRENGTHSOFSCENARIOPRACTICEISITSBROAD/LYMPIANVIEWACROSS
STAKEHOLDERSANDISSUESASWELLASTHEINCLUSIONOFTHEIRINTERRELATIONSHIPS4HIS APPROACHCONTRASTSWITHMANYOTHERFORMSOFPROBLEMDElNITIONTHATUTILIZEAN ANALYTICALLYNARROWFOCUSOFTHESUBJECT!LTHOUGHTHELATTERCOURSEMIGHTMAKE INITIALAGREEMENTSIMPLERITISLIKELYTOREDUCETHEPERCEPTIONOFFAIRNESSDUE TOTHELACKOFRECOGNITIONOFTHECOMPLEXLINKAGESANDTHECUMULATIVEIMPACTS BETWEENENTITIESANDISSUES(OWEVERITISWORTHNOTINGTHATTHEFRAMINGTHAT ISTHEINTERPRETATIONUSEDBYINDIVIDUALSANDTHEGROUPTOPERCEIVEIDENTIFYAND LABELEVENTSANDISSUESWILLAFFECTUNDERSTANDINGANDGUIDEACTIONSPARTICULARLY WHENDEALINGWITHCOMPLEXITY'OFFMAN &RAMINGTAKESPLACEINMANY WAYSTHATAFFECTFAIRNESSINTERMSOFTHEDIVISIONOFAGOODORABADTHETIMESCALE LONGTERMSHORTTERMINTERGENERATIONAL ANDTHESIZEORDIMENSIONSOFTHEUNITS CONSIDERED )N SOME INSTANCES THERE ARE SENSITIVE ISSUES THAT CAN BE DESCRIBED AS
UNMENTIONEDOREVENUNMENTIONABLEDUETOSOCIALORPSYCHOLOGICALTABOOSOFTHE GROUPCULTUREORSOCIETY&OREXAMPLEINTHE5NITED.ATIONS*OINT0ROGRAMME ON()6!)$35.!)$3 SCENARIOPROCESS)WASINVOLVEDIN5.!)$3 CERTAINELEMENTSOFSEXUALBEHAVIOURFELLINTOTHISLATTERCATEGORY(OWEVERINORDER TOlNDASHAREDSOLUTIONITISIMPORTANTTOTRYANDRAISESUCHTABOOSWHICHWHILE UNMENTIONABLEARELIKELYTOHAVESTRONGSUBCONSCIOUSIMPACTUPONDECISIONS ANDBEHAVIOURS)NASIMILARVEINSHOULDTHEREBEANYPERCEPTIONTHATTHEREARE UNDISCLOSEDORHIDDENAGENDASORTHATSENSITIVEISSUESHAVEBEENREMOVEDFROM THEDISCUSSIONINTHISWAYINmUENCINGTHEFRAMINGTHEREWILLBEAPERCEIVEDLACK OFPROCEDURALFAIRNESS
Achieving
)NFORMATIONANDACCESSTOKNOWLEDGEARECURRENCIESOFPOWERIFWITHHELDOR MANIPULATEDNODECISIONWILLBECONSIDERED FAIR4HEQUALITYANDEXTENTOF INFORMATIONAVAILABLEAFFECTSFAIRNESS4HEREAREMANYEXAMPLESOFNEGOTIATIONS WHEREINFORMATIONASYMMETRYHASAFFECTEDTHEOUTCOMEANDINSUCHCASESTHE DISTRUSTENGENDEREDMAKESFUTURENEGOTIATIONSANDCONSENSUSMUCHHARDERTO ACHIEVE'OODSCENARIOPRACTICEENSURESTHATALLVOICESAREHEARDOVERCOMING THIS !CLASSICEXAMPLEWHEREKNOWLEDGEASYMMETRYLEDTOANOUTCOMEPERCEIVED
ASUNFAIRISTHE4RADE2ELATED!SPECTSOF)NTELLECTUAL0ROPERTY2IGHTS42)03
!GREEMENT-ANYARGUETHATDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESDIDNOTUNDERSTANDTHEIMPACT THATTHISAGREEMENTWOULDHAVEONTHEIRECONOMIESBUTACCEPTEDTHETERMSASA MEANSOFSECURINGAGREEMENTONAGRICULTURALREFORMSWHICHWOULDPROVIDEREVENUE &INGERAND3CHULER#ORREA(UTHER6ISSERINTERVIEWSIN%0/
3UBSTANTIVE FAIRNESSMEANSA FAIROUTCOME)NESSENCE FAIROUTCOMESWILLBE THOSETHATENLARGETHEGROUPWITHWHOMTHEREISSHAREDIDENTITY&AIROUTCOMES ENABLESTAKEHOLDERSORACTORSTOlNDAMEANSOFCO EXISTINGWITHOUTCONmICTBY ESTABLISHINGANEWSHAREDSETOFBELIEFSANDVALUESWORKINGOUTAMODUSVIVENDIOR BUILDINGACOMMUNITYOFTRUSTIECREATINGTHE@COMMONGROUND &AIROUTCOMESREQUIRETHATTHEPRINCIPLESUNDERLYINGTHEDISTRIBUTIONOFRESOURCES
ORREWARDSANDBURDENSORRISKSWITHINTHEAGREEMENTITSELFAREFAIRUSINGVARIOUS MECHANISMS!LBIN-ELLERSAND"ARON9OUNGA B 'OODSARENOTNECESSARILYTANGIBLEORQUANTITATIVEMAKINGDISTRIBUTION COMPLEX4HEYCANINCLUDECLEANAIRSOCIALORDEREMPLOYMENTOPPORTUNITIES SECURITYPOWERPHYSICALLANDOREVENPOLITICALANDSOCIALRECOGNITION,IABILITIES CANINCLUDEBOTHREALORPOTENTIALNEGATIVECONSEQUENCESANDLOSSESTOHUMAN BEINGSORTHETHINGSTHEYVALUE 4HEREAREANUMBEROFMECHANISMSUSEDTODISTRIBUTEGOODSANDLIABILITIES
SOMEOFMORERELEVANCETOSCENARIOSPRACTICETHANOTHERS(OWEVERUNDERSTANDING THESEMECHANISMSISLIKELYTOPROVIDEPRACTITIONERSWITHATHEORETICALFRAMEWORK TOAPPLYINTHESEARCHFORBALANCEANDFAIRNESSASNECESSARY
s $IVISIONTHEVALUEOFENVIRONMENTALGOODSISSELDOMEQUALBUTINSOME CASESAFAIRDIVISIONCANBEACHIEVEDBASEDONRECIPROCITY4HISCANTAKETHE FORMOFEQUALSACRIlCETIT FOR TATSPLITTHEDIFFERENCEORANEXCHANGEOFEQUAL CONCESSIONS4HISMECHANISMISONLYFAIRWHENTHEPARTIESAREEQUALLYFARFROM THEINITIALPOSITIONSANDWHENPARTISANBIASESTHETENDENCYTOOVERVALUEONES OWNCONCESSIONSANDUNDERVALUETHOSEOFTHEOTHERPARTIES CANBEAVOIDED $IVISIONISMOREDIFlCULTWHENONEPARTYHASBETTERINFORMATIONREGARDINGTHE VALUEOFTHERESOURCE)NSUCHCASESTHEFAIRESTMETHODOFDIVISIONISFORONE PARTYTODIVIDEANDTHEOTHERPARTYTOCHOOSE
4HISMETHODWASUSEDINTHEINTERNATIONAL,AWOFTHE3EANEGOTIATIONSWHERE AKEYISSUEWASTHEDIVISIONOFTHEMININGRIGHTSFORTHEOCEANmOOR$EVELOPING COUNTRIESWERE CONCERNED THAT THEYWOULDBE LEFTWITH THE LESS VALUABLE AREASOFWHATWASAGLOBALCOMMONSRESOURCEASONLYSOMEINDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIESWEREINAPOSITIONTOEXPLOITTHESEABEDPROlTABLY4HERESOLUTION TOTHISCONTROVERSYWASTOENSURETHATANYMININGCOMPANYAPPLYINGTOTHE )NTERNATIONAL3EABED!UTHORITY)3! WHICHLICENSESALLMININGACTIVITIES
MUSTDEVELOPTWOPARALLELDEEP SEAMININGSITES!NINTERNATIONALMINING COMPANYWORKINGFORTHEDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESISTHENGIVENTHECHOICEOFONE OFTHESESITES4HISENSURESTHATTHEDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESGLEANATLEASTHALFTHE BENElTSOFTHEPROCESS3EBENIUSIN9OUNGB
s $ESTRUCTIONORDELEGATIONTOATHIRDPARTYWHENPARTIESCANNOTAGREEONHOW TODISTRIBUTEARESOURCEITMIGHTBEFAIRESTTODESTROYITORGIVEITTOATHIRD PARTY!CLASSICCASEILLUSTRATINGTHISMECHANISMIS+ING3OLOMONSJUDGEMENT MADETOTWOMOTHERSCLAIMINGTHESAMECHILD+INGS)n 3OLOMONS DECISIONTODIVIDETHEBABYINTWOENABLEDTHEREALMOTHERTOBEIDENTIlED 7HENTHETHREATTOTHEBABYSLIFEWASABOUTTOMATERIALIZETHEREALMOTHER WASWILLINGTOLOSEHERCHILDTOPRESERVEITSLIFE(OWEVERINTODAYSWORLD THECONCEPTOFDESTRUCTIONOFANASSETCOULDBEUNACCEPTABLEANDlNDINGAN ARBITERWHOISPERCEIVEDASSUFlCIENTLYLEGITIMATETOALLPARTIESISOFTENUNLIKELY !LBIN
s 2ANDOMCHANCEWHENANASSETCANNOTBEDIVIDEDSIMPLYRANDOMCHANCECAN BEUSEDTOSHAREANASSETORLIABILITY4HISCOULDTAKETHEFORMOFALOTTERY mIPPINGACOINORTOSSINGTHEDIEANDTHEWINNERTAKESALL3UCHASTRATEGY COULDBEPERCEIVEDASFAIRWHENTHEOUTCOMEISEITHEROFVERYSMALLORGREAT IMPORTANCEORWHEN THEDISPUTED RESOURCE IS INDIVISIBLE(OWEVER THIS PRACTICEISQUITEUNCOMMONASMOSTPEOPLEAREPSYCHOLOGICALLYRISKAVERSE ANDWILLNOTACCEPTRISK TAKINGWHENTHELIKELIHOODOFLOSSISHIGH4VERSKY AND+AHNEMAN
s 2OTATION SOMETIMES JOINT CUSTODYOR ROTATIONOF THEPOSSESSION IS A FAIR SOLUTIONTOTHEDECISION MAKINGPROCESS!NEXAMPLEOFROTATIONWASADOPTED BY4URKISHlSHERMENIN!LANYAWHEREAPPROXIMATELYlSHERMENWERE COMPETINGFORTHEBESTlSHINGSPOTSATANINSHORElSHERY!STHERESOURCE DWINDLEDlSHINGWASNOLONGERECONOMICALLYVIABLEANDTHECOMPETITION LEDTOlERCECONmICTANDINCREASEDPRODUCTIONCOSTS!SOLUTIONWASFOUND BYIDENTIFYINGANDLISTINGALLOFTHEUSABLElSHINGLOCATIONS%VERYANNUAL lSHINGSEASONlSHINGBOATSAREPUTINTOAROTAWHICHENABLESTHElSHERMEN TOHAVEACCESSTOlSHINGINEVERYLOCATIONSEQUENTIALLY4HISISDONEBYROTATING THEIRDAILYPOSITIONSEASTWARDSASTHElSHMIGRATEWESTWARDSENSURINGTHATALL lSHERMENHAVEAFAIROPPORTUNITYTOlSHATTHEBESTLOCATIONSATSOMEPOINT DURINGTHESEASON4HISSYSTEMOFROTATIONHASALSOENSUREDTHATTHEIRCOMMON RESOURCEISMAINTAINEDREMOVINGTHETHREATOFOVER lSHING"ERKESBIN /STROM
s /WNERSHIP IN COMMONWHENANAREA IS INDIVISIBLE IT CANBEPOSSIBLE TO ACHIEVEAFAIRDIVISIONBYSHARINGOWNERSHIP)NTHE!NTARCTIC4REATY WASSIGNEDBYTHEPOWERSWHOHADALLMADECLAIMSONTHECONTINENT !RGENTINA!USTRALIA"ELGIUM#HILE&RANCE*APAN.EW:EALAND.ORWAY 3OUTH!FRICATHE3OVIET5NIONTHE5+ANDTHE534HECOUNTRIESAGREED TOPRESERVETHETERRITORYFORPEACEFULPURPOSESPARTICULARLYSCIENTIlCRESEARCH ANDTOBANCOLONIZATIONORDEVELOPMENTOFITSECONOMICRESOURCES
s 3ALETHEREARECASESWHENTHEVALUEOFANASSETISREALIZEDANDTHEPROCEEDS SHAREDAMONGTHEPARTIES!NAUCTIONISAFAIRMEANSOFDETERMININGWHICH PARTYVALUESTHERESOURCEMOSTANDTHEIRWILLINGNESSTOPAYFORIT(OWEVER SHOULDKNOWLEDGEABOUTTHERESOURCEBEASYMMETRICITCANLEADTOSTRATEGIC BIDDINGANDPERCEPTIONSOFUNFAIRNESS
s #OMPENSATION IN SOMECASES A LOSERCANBECOMPENSATEDWITHGOODSOF EQUIVALENTVALUETOACHIEVEFAIRNESSBUTTHEREARESOMEWHOPERCEIVETHIS ASBRIBERY&OREXAMPLEINABIDTOlNDLOCATIONSFORLOCALLYUNWANTEDLAND USES,5,5S SUCHASHAZARDOUSWASTEDISPOSALUNITSTHATWOULDBEACCEPTED BYCOMMUNITIESSOMEAUTHORITIESATTEMPTEDTOCOMPENSATEPOORAREASBY OFFERING IMPROVEDEDUCATIONANDHEALTH FACILITIES IN RETURN4HIS CAUSED MORALCONCERNSWITHPEOPLEQUESTIONINGHOWlNANCIALPAYMENTCOULDBE BALANCEDAGAINSTTHEINCREASEDRISKSOFAPOORENVIRONMENTILLHEALTHOREVEN DEATH&IELDETAL )TWILLBEINTERESTINGTOSEEWHETHERTHESEDEBATES APPLYINTHECASEOFTHE5NITED.ATIONS&RAMEWORK#ONVENTIONON#LIMATE #HANGE5.&### WHICHHAS INTRODUCEDA*OINT )MPLEMENTATION*) 0ROGRAMMEWHERERICHNATIONSCANBEABSOLVEDFROMTHEIRREQUIREMENTSTO REDUCEEMISSIONSUNDERTHE+YOTO0ROTOCOLBYPAYINGDEVELOPINGCOUNTRIESTO DOITONTHEIRBEHALFTHROUGHTHEMEANSOFEMISSIONREDUCTIONUNITS%25S SEEHTTPUNFCCCINTPHP !TTHEMOMENTINDUSTRIALIZEDNATIONSARE REQUIREDTOREDUCETHEMAJORITYOFEMISSIONSTHEMSELVESBUT9VODE"OER EXECUTIVESECRETARYOFTHE5.&###ARGUEDTHATTHECHALLENGEISSOGREATTHAT URGENTACTIONISREQUIRED""#.EWS!UGUST
/VERTHEYEARS)HAVEHADTHEGOODFORTUNETOWORKONANUMBEROFSCENARIO PROJECTSDEALINGWITHTYPE)6TURBULENTlELDS)TISTHISEXPERIENCETHATHASMADE MESOCONSCIOUSOFTHEVALUEOFFAIRNESSANDTHEROLEITPLAYSINTHECREATIONOF TRUSTANDTHEREFORETHE@COMMONGROUND&AIRNESSALONGSIDECOMPETENCEAND CONSISTENCYISONEOFTHETHREEDIMENSIONSOFTRUST2ENNAND,EVINE #VETKOVICHAND,šFSTEDT,šFSTEDT 7ITHOUTTRUSTTOLUBRICATETHE INHERENTFRICTIONSBETWEENDISPARATESTAKEHOLDERGROUPSTHEREISLITTLELIKELIHOOD OFFORMINGTHECOMMONGROUNDnANDNAVIGATINGTHESYSTEMICVOLATILITYOFTHESE ENVIRONMENTS
%ARLIERINTHISCHAPTER)DISCUSSEDTHEIMPORTANCEOFFORMINGTHECOMMON GROUNDUNDERPINNEDBYANEWSETOFVALUES@THATHAVEOVERRIDINGSIGNIlCANCEFOR ALLMEMBERSOFTHElELDAS%MERYAND4RIST SUGGESTEDAND)ARGUEDTHAT SCENARIOSCOULDPOTENTIALLYSPEEDUPAPROCESSWHICHWOULDOTHERWISEACCORDING TO%MERYAND4RISTREQUIREATLEASTAGENERATIONTOPERMEATEAWHOLEMODERN SOCIETY )NMYWORK)HAVECOMETOTHECONCLUSIONTHATINALMOSTEVERYSCENARIO BUILDING
EXERCISEWHEREISSUESOFBALANCEANDTRADE OFFSBETWEENDIFFERENTSTAKEHOLDERSAND ISSUESNEEDTOBEEXPLOREDADDRESSINGFAIRNESSEXPLICITLYANDSYSTEMATICALLYWILL IMPROVEEFFECTIVENESS4HISISSOWHETHERTHEISSUESUNDERCONSIDERATIONARETHE ETHICSPOSEDBYAHEALTHRISKSUCHAS!)$3IN!FRICATHEECONOMICPOLITICALOR SOCIALIMPACTSOFANENVIRONMENTALCATASTROPHEORANATURALHAZARDORTHETENSIONS BETWEENPUBLICANDPRIVATEOWNERSHIPOFINTELLECTUALPROPERTYRIGHTS)NALLSUCH CASESlNDINGABALANCEBETWEENTHECONmICTINGINTERESTSOFDIVERSESTAKEHOLDERS THATISPERCEIVEDTOBEREASONABLYFAIRTOALLPARTIESISOFPARAMOUNTCONCERNIN DETERMININGHOWSUCCESSFULTHEOUTCOMEWILLBE )BELIEVETHATTHEREASONFORTHISISTHATGOODSCENARIOSINTEGRATEAJIGSAWOF
COLLECTIVEMINDSETSDESCRIBEDBY"OHM WHERETHEWHOLEBECOMESGREATER THANTHESUMOFTHEPARTS4HISPROCESSCREATESASETOFSCENARIOFUTURESWHICHFORM AROBUSTFRAMEWORKFROMWHICHAFULLRANGEOFPERSPECTIVESCANBEVIEWEDTOGETHER ASAWHOLE-ANYPEOPLEWILLHAVEPREFERENCESFORONEPARTICULARSCENARIOBUTTHE FRAMEWORKENABLESTHEMTOEVALUATETHEIRIDEASALONGSIDETHOSETHATMIGHTUNDER OTHERCIRCUMSTANCESPROVIDECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEANDTHEREBYBEREJECTEDOUTOF HAND&ESTINGER 4OBUILDSCENARIOSTHATAREFAIRRELEVANTANDCHALLENGING)HAVEFOUNDTHATIT
ISIMPORTANTTOKEEPTHEFOLLOWINGQUESTIONlRMLYINMINDARETHEREANYMAJOR PERSPECTIVESLEFTOUTANDIFSOWHY!NAIMOFSCENARIOSISTOWIDENTHINKINGBY SETTINGOUTASMANYRELEVANTFACTSOFALARGERWHOLETHEREBYHELPINGPEOPLETO THINKCOLLECTIVELYDEALWITHCOMPLEXITYANDENGAGEINSTRATEGICCONVERSATIONVAN DER(EIJDEN 4HERESULTANTSETOFSCENARIOSCANTHENBEUSEDASASERIES OFWINDTUNNELSINWHICHANORGANIZATIONORSTAKEHOLDERCANPLAYOUTFUTURE STRATEGIESANDTESTROLES )T IS THE FOCUS ON A SHARED FUTURE THAT ENABLES SCENARIOS TO CIRCUMVENT
ENTRENCHEDCONmICTSANDFORMTHECOMMONGROUND"YMOVINGPROBLEMSAND IDEASASFARINTOTHEFUTUREASTHESCENARIOBUILDERSCANTOLERATETHEPROCESSCAN BREAKTHECURRENTMINDSETOFHISTORICALCONSTRAINTS THATCHARACTERIZE TYPE)6 ENVIRONMENTS4HESCENARIOSTORIESPRODUCEDINTHISWAYTHENOFFERTHEPOTENTIAL TOMOVETHECOLLABORATIVESCENARIO BUILDINGEXERCISECONDUCTEDAMONGALIMITED GROUPOFKEYSTAKEHOLDERSTOAWIDERCOOPERATIVEROLL OUTEXERCISE4HESETOF SCENARIOSFORMSHAREDVISIONSOFTHEFUTURESOMEOFWHICHWILLNOTBEDESIRABLE FORPARTICULARGROUPS"YREFERENCINGASHAREDFRAMEWORKANDLANGUAGEPEOPLECAN COLLECTIVELYDETERMINEWHATDECISIONSTOTAKEANDWHATTRADE OFFSTHESEDECISIONS
MIGHTENTAIL)NMOSTCASESPARTIESCANlNDTRADE OFFSTHATMEETDISPARATEINTERESTS WHICHTHEYCONSIDERFAIRBECAUSEGENERALLYTHESAMEITEMISVALUEDDIFFERENTLYBY THEVARIOUSPARTIESANDCANTHEREFOREBETRADEDBYCONCESSIONSONLESS VALUEDITEMS FORCONCESSIONSOFGREATERVALUE"ECAUSESCENARIOSENABLEFUTURETRADE OFFSTOBE CONSIDEREDPEOPLECANEXPERIMENTWITHPOSSIBLEVALUATIONSANDEVALUATEOPTIONS BEFOREEXERCISINGTHEMnASTHEYHAVECONSIDEREDNOTONLYTHEINHERENTFAIRNESSOF THEOPTIONTHEYCANADOPTBUTALSOTHELESSFAIRALTERNATIVESWHICHTHEYCANTHEN MODIFYORREJECT 4HISPROCESSENABLESDISPARATESTAKEHOLDERSTOEXPLORETHEPOSSIBILITIESFOR
COOPERATIONANDPOTENTIALLYlNDSHAREDVALUESTOACHIEVEAFUTURETHATCANBE SHAREDBYALLORMOSTPARTIES!STHEYSHARETHELEARNINGJOURNEYANDITSOUTCOME THEYCO PRODUCETHECOMMONGROUNDANDHENCETAPTHEPOTENTIALMEANSTODEAL WITHTURBULENCE
Building scenarios fairly
4HEREARESEVERALPHASESINSCENARIOBUILDINGnNAMELYEXPLORATIONORIENTATION SCENARIOBUILDINGANDAFlRMATION-YWORKSUGGESTSSTRONGLYTHATWHENFAIRNESS ISCONSCIOUSLYINTEGRATEDASACENTRALELEMENTINEACHPHASETHERESULTISTRUSTED MORE4HISCONCERNSPROCEDURALFAIRNESSATEACHSTAGEASWELLASFRANKNESSIN ADDRESSINGOUTCOMEFAIRNESSPARTICULARLYINTHEROLL OUTPHASEnWHEREASETOF SCENARIOSARESHAREDWITHWIDERGROUPSNOTINVOLVEDINTHEIRPRODUCTION 4HEEXPLORATIONPHASEOFSCENARIOBUILDINGUSUALLYENTAILSALITERATUREREVIEW
AND INTERVIEWS TO ESTABLISH A LANDSCAPE AND SET OUT A RANGE OF VIEWPOINTS )NTERVIEWINGBOTHINPERSONANDBYTELEPHONEPROVIDESAUSEFULANDLOW COST MEANSOFINCORPORATINGMULTIPLEVIEWPOINTSWITHINTHEPROCESS4HEINTERVIEWS ARETHENSYNTHESIZEDINASEARCHFORPATTERNSANDSTRUCTURESTHATKICK STARTSTHE COLLABORATIVEORIENTATIONPROCESS(OWEVERITISIMPORTANTTOBEAWARETHATTHERE ISASTAGEWHERETHEVIEWPOINTSARENOLONGERORIGINALANDTHERETURNSBECOME PROGRESSIVELYLOWERONTHEEFFORTEXPENDEDnWHICHRESEMBLESWHATSCIENTISTSCALL @THEORETICALSATURATION(AVINGlRSTLEARNEDSCENARIOPRACTICEIN3HELL)BELIEVED THATBYTHETIMEONEREACHESAPPROXIMATELYINTERVIEWSTHEREWOULDBEUSUALLY SUFlCIENTREPETITIONYETTHISISNOTALWAYSTHECASE)FOUNDONMYMOSTRECENT PROJECTFORTHE%UROPEAN0ATENT/FlCE%0/ THATTHERANGEOFVIEWPOINTSWASSO WIDEANDTHEISSUESWERESOCONTESTEDTHATWEUNDERTOOKWELLOVERINTERVIEWS WITHLITTLEDUPLICATIONOFIDEAS4HEREASONSWERETHECOMPLEXITYOFTHESUBJECT ANDLACKOFINTERDISCIPLINARYRESEARCHINTHElELDTHESHEERSCALEANDDIVERSITYOF STAKEHOLDERSASWELLASVESTEDINTERESTS )TISOFTENGOODPRACTICETOENSURETHATINTERVIEWSREMAINCONlDENTIALAND
NON ATTRIBUTABLEWITHTHEKEYPOINTSRAISEDDISTILLEDANDDISSEMINATEDBYTHE SCENARIOTEAM(OWEVER)HAVEFOUNDTHATPUTTINGTHECONTENTSOFEACHINTERVIEW EDITEDANDAPPROVEDBYTHEINTERVIEWEEINTOTHEPUBLICDOMAINCANMAXIMIZE
THEVALUEOFTHEEXERCISEBYEXPOSINGDIVERSESTAKEHOLDERSWHOAREOFTENRELUCTANT TOACCEPTACHANGETOTHESTATUSQUO TOTHEHIGHPROBABILITYORINEVITABILITYOF CHANGE0UTTINGCONmICTINGVIEWPOINTSCOMINGFROMRESPECTEDYETDISPARATEPARTIES INTOTHEPUBLICDOMAINCANSETOUTCLEARMARKERSANDVALIDATEPOSITIONSTHEREBY INCREASINGTRUSTANDENCOURAGINGTHEFORMATIONOFTHECOMMONGROUND 3INCE SCENARIOPROCESSESDEALWITH TYPE )6ENVIRONMENTS ISSUESOF TRUST
BETWEENSTAKEHOLDERSAREIMPORTANT%NSURINGTHATALLDEALINGSARETRANSPARENT ANDTHATALLOUTPUTSARECLEARLYDOCUMENTEDISANESSENTIALPARTOFTRUST BUILDING 0ERHAPSTHEMOSTIMPORTANTOUTPUTSTODOCUMENTAREWORKSHOPREPORTSWHICH CONTAINTHECONTENTSOFALLmIPCHARTSANDEXERCISESWHILEENSURINGCONlDENTIALITY BYPUTTINGINFORMATIONINANON ATTRIBUTABLEFORMAT4HISENSURESTHATEVERYSTAGE OFTHEPROCESSISINTHEPUBLICORSEMI PUBLICDOMAINWHERETHEREASONINGAND PROCEEDINGSAREOPENTOSCRUTINY %NSURINGTHATALLPERSPECTIVESARECONSIDEREDEQUALLYISESSENTIALFORFAIRNESS
4HISAPPLIESPARTICULARLYTOTHIRDPARTIESWHOMIGHTBEUNABLETOPARTICIPATEINTHE PROCESS3OMETIMESTHESEVIEWPOINTSARETHOSEOFMINORITYGROUPSWHOHAVEBEEN EXCLUDEDDUETOLOGISTICALCONSTRAINTSOFTHEPROCESS&OREXAMPLEONTHE!)$3IN !FRICASCENARIOSPROJECT)WASINVOLVEDWITHITBECAMECLEARTHATTHEDOWNTRODDEN POVERTY STRICKENSUB 3AHARANWOMENSTREETCHILDRENAND!)$3ORPHANSWERE NOTABLETOBEREPRESENTEDINTHEROOMYETTHEYWERESOMEOFTHEPARTIESMOST AFFECTEDBYALLOFTHEFUTURESCENARIOS5.!)$3 /NCETHISPROBLEMWAS IDENTIlEDTHEWORKSHOPSUSED@STICK HOLDERSTOENSURETHATTHESEPERSPECTIVES WERENOTMISSEDANDTHEDIRECTOROFTHEPROJECTEXPLICITLYINVITEDTHESEGROUPSTO MEETINGSTOENSURETHATTHESCENARIOSPRODUCEDINCORPORATEDTHEIRPERSPECTIVES 3IMILARLYTHEINTERESTSOFUNBORNFUTUREGENERATIONSFACINGMASSIVESOCIALIZATION PROBLEMSWITHOUTTHEMIDDLE AGEDINCOME GENERATINGANDSOCIALNORM SETTING GENERATIONSWEREGOINGTOBECRITICALOVERTHE YEARTIMEHORIZONOFTHEPROJECT 4HEREFOREEXPLORINGTHESOCIALPOLITICALANDECONOMICISSUESANDCHALLENGESTHEY WERELIKELYTOFACEWASAMAJORPARTOFTHEEXERCISE "UILDINGSCENARIOSINMULTI STAKEHOLDERSETTINGSTAKESMORETIMEANDMORE
SUBSTANTIALINTELLECTUALANDlNANCIALRESOURCESTHANITDOESWHENWORKINGFOR INDIVIDUALFOCALORGANIZATIONS)NMYEXPERIENCETHISCOMPLEXITYMEANSTHATTHERE ARESELDOMSUFlCIENTRESOURCESAVAILABLETOEXPLOREEVERYISSUEATTHESAMELEVEL OFDETAILYETDECIDINGWHICHISSUESTOCONCENTRATEONISINHERENTLYASUBJECTIVE PROCESSTHEREBYCREATINGAPOTENTIALDILEMMA)TISTHEREFOREIMPORTANTTOENSURE THATTHEISSUESCONSIDEREDARETHOSETHATENCOMPASSTHEMETA LEVELANDTHATTHE DECISION MAKINGREGARDINGTHEFOCUSOFRESEARCHISTRANSPARENT 4HEPROCESSOFUSINGA@PARKINGBAYCANENABLETHOSEPARTICIPANTSWHODONOT
WANTTOLETGOOFAGIVENPERSPECTIVETO@PARKTHEIRIDEASTEMPORARILYINORDERTO EXAMINEALTERNATIVES!CKNOWLEDGEMENTOFTHEIRVIEWSISAKEYASPECTTOACHIEVING OUTCOMEFAIRNESSANDREVISITINGTHE@PARKINGBAYENABLESWORTHWHILEIDEASTOBE USEDLATER
'ROUNDRULESARECRITICALINORDERTOENSUREAFAIRPROCESSANDITISTHEROLEOF THEFACILITATORSTOENSURETHATTHEYAREMAINTAINEDANDREVISITEDANDADAPTEDIF APPROPRIATE3OMEOFGROUNDRULES)HAVEWORKEDWITHARE
s #ONlDENTIALITYnWHATISDISCUSSEDHERESTAYSINTHISROOMANDTHEIDEAS REMAINNON ATTRIBUTABLE4HECONTENTSOFTHEmIPCHARTSFORMTHECOMMUNITY RECORDTHEYAREEASYTOCAPTUREVIADIGITALPHOTOGRAPHS
s &AIRNESSnEVERYONEHASANEQUALRIGHTANDRESPONSIBILITYTOBEHEARD$IFFERENT LANGUAGESAREWELCOME
s 0ROBLEMDElNITIONNOTPROBLEM SOLVINGnTHEFOCUSISONSHAREDLEARNING AWARENESSUNDERSTANDINGANDMUTUALSUPPORT
s 2OLESnPARTICIPANTSGENERATEANDANALYSE INFORMATIONDERIVEMEANINGS PROPOSEACTIONANDTAKERESPONSIBILITYFOROUTPUT&ACILITATORSSTRUCTURETASKS ANDMANAGETIME
s 3TATUSnSPEAKASAPERSONNOTASAPOSITIONANDLISTENTOTHEPERSONNOTTHE POSITION
s 4IMEFRAMESnACTIVITIESARETASKORIENTEDSOPROGRAMMETIMESMATTER s 6ALIDITYnEVERYIDEAORCOMMENTISVALIDANDPEOPLENEEDNOTAGREE
&INALLYTHECHOICEOFLOCATIONISCRITICALTOTHEPHYSICALACCESSANDCOMFORTTHATTHE PARTIESHAVEANDITISIMPORTANTTHATONEHOLDSEVENTSINANEUTRALSITE-OREOFTEN THANNOT)WOULDTRYANDPERSUADEACLIENTTOHOLDAMEETINGOFFSITEWHEREEVERYONE HASTHETIMETODIGESTWHATISSAIDANDTHEOPPORTUNITYTOMAKENEWCONNECTIONS 7HENCHOOSINGVENUESITISHELPFULIFITISEQUALLYUNFAMILIARTOEVERYONEORIF THISISNOTPOSSIBLEASITEWHEREEVERYONEISOFFEREDEQUALACCOMMODATIONAND RELATEDAMENITIES
Roll-out of the scenarios
6ANDER(EIJDEN DESCRIBESSCENARIOPRACTICEBEAUTIFULLYASTHEARTOFSTRATEGIC CONVERSATION3CENARIOSPROVIDEASERIESOFDIFFERENTPERSPECTIVESTHATINTEGRATE MENTALMODELSANDOPENTHINKINGSOENABLINGTHESTRATEGICCONVERSATIONTOTAKE PLACE4HISPROCESSCREATESLEARNINGLOOPSLINKINGTHINKINGANDACTION(OWEVER WHENWORKINGWITHWICKEDPROBLEMSBEYONDTHESCOPEORADAPTIVECAPACITYOFA SINGLEORGANIZATIONSEE#HAPTER ACHIEVINGASTRATEGICCONVERSATIONISMORE DIFlCULTEVENTHOUGHITISMOREPRESSINGTOCREATETHECONTEXTWHERENEWIDEASCAN BEDISCUSSEDWITHOUTBEINGREJECTEDOUTOFHAND3OMESCENARIOEXERCISESNEVER MANAGETOMOVEBEYONDINTERESTINGACADEMICTREATISESOTHERSCREATEMEMORABLE METAPHORSANDSTORIESTHATENABLETHEWIDERGROUPTOTURNATHEORETICALEXERCISE INTOREALITY4OTHEBESTOFMYKNOWLEDGETHEREISLITTLERESEARCHUNDERTAKENON HOWAGIVENSETOFSCENARIOSISSHAREDWITHAWIDERAUDIENCEAPRACTICETERMED @ROLL OUT
)HAVEBEENARGUINGINTHISCHAPTERTHATBYTHEIRVERYNATURESCENARIOSINCORPORATE ELEMENTSOFFAIRPROCESSWITHINSCENARIOBUILDING!KEYQUESTION)NOWATTEMPT TOADDRESSISHOWANEXERCISEAMONGARELATIVELYSMALLGROUPOFSCENARIOBUILDERS CANBESTBEUTILIZEDTOEXTENDTHEFAIRPROCESSANDTOTOUCHAWIDERGROUPOF INTERESTEDPARTIES(ERETHESCENARIOBUILDERSBECOMETHEOBVIOUSADVOCATESnA GROUPOFPEOPLEWHOHAVEJOINTLYSHAREDAPROCESSOFSHAREDLEARNINGANDCREATED THEFRAMEWORKTHATFORMSTHEBASISFORTHECOMMONGROUND4HESEARETHEPEOPLE WHOCANFORMTHENODESOFANEXPANDINGNETWORKOFPEOPLEWITHCOOPERATIVE ATTITUDESANDASHAREDUNDERSTANDINGOFTHEMANYFACETSAROUNDAPARTICULARISSUE SOGALVANIZINGOTHERSANDGRADUALLYCREATINGMOMENTUMFORCOOPERATIONINTHIS WAYINCREASINGTHEAREAOFCOMMONGROUND 3CENARIOSnWITHOUTDENYINGCONmICTSnENABLEFEWERBETTERARGUMENTSTOBE
PRESENTED&ORMETHISROLL OUTPROCESSCANBELIKENEDTOABLACK AND WHITEIMAGE OFASITUATIONVERSUSTHEDIFFERENT COLOUREDLENSESOFAPRISMTHROUGHWHICHTO VIEWITASAMORECOMPLEXANDHOLISTICSETOFISSUESINTERESTSANDVIEWPOINTS!N EXAMPLEOFTHESUCCESSFULUSEOFSCENARIOSFORCREATINGNEWFORMSOFCOOPERATION ISTHE-ONT&LEURSCENARIOSOFTENCITEDASHAVINGCONTRIBUTEDTOTHEPEACEFUL TRANSITIONOFGOVERNMENTIN3OUTH!FRICA+AHANESEEALSO#HAPTERIN THISVOLUME )NTHISINSTANCEAMULTI RACIALGROUPOFDIVERSEDECISION MAKERS FROMACROSS THEPOLITICAL SPECTRUMCREATED FOURMEMORABLEPOSSIBLE FUTURES WHICHVARIEDFROM,AME$UCK/STRICHAND)CARUSTO&LIGHTOFTHE&LAMINGOS 4HESEMETAPHORSCREATEDTHECONTEXTFORWIDESPREADSTRATEGICCONVERSATIONAND GALVANIZEDACTION 4HISEXAMPLEILLUSTRATESHOWSCENARIOSCANBEUTILIZEDASAMEANSOFESTABLISHING
COMMONGROUNDBEYONDTHESCENARIOBUILDINGITSELFCREATINGTHECONTEXTFOR COOPERATIONANDPOSSIBLYTHEACHIEVEMENTOFOUTCOMEFAIRNESS)NMYEXPERIENCE THEROLL OUTPROCESSFAILSINSUCHTYPE)6ENVIRONMENTSUNLESSTHESCENARIO BUILDING EXERCISEISTRUSTEDANDTHEPRODUCTPERCEIVEDTOBEARESULTANTSETOFFAIRSCENARIOS WORTHHARNESSINGBYOTHERS
!S)STATEDEARLIERNEGOTIATIONSAREMOREOFTENTHANNOTADVERSARIALBYNATURE PRESENTINGTWOOPPOSINGVIEWSOFTHEFUTURE4HISISINCONTRASTTOTHEINTEGRATIVE PROCESS THAT SCENARIOS ADOPT ANDONE THAT ISPARTICULARLY EFFECTIVE IN EASING FRICTIONBETWEENDIFFERENTSTAKEHOLDERGROUPSFORMINGACOMMUNITYOFTRUST ANDESTABLISHING THECOMMONGROUND!NEFFECTIVEAND FAIR ROLL OUTPROCESS ENABLESPEOPLEWHOHAVENOTBEENINVOLVEDINSCENARIOPRODUCTIONTOMODIFY THEIRWORLDVIEWSANDREDElNETHEIRSOCIALVALUES"UTWHYWOULDTHEYCHOOSETO DOSO)TCOULDBERECOGNITIONOFTHEINEVITABILITYOFCHANGEORTHEDEEP ROOTED PSYCHOLOGICALNEEDTOUNDERSTANDANDCONTROLTHEFUTURE'ILBERT
!LTERNATIVELYTHESCENARIOSANDTHEIRMESSAGECOULDBEUNSUCCESSFULANDTHE RESPONSETOTHISNEWINFORMATIONCOULDBETOIGNOREMISINTERPRETORDENYIT4HE lRSTREACTIONTOINFORMATIONTHATDOESNOTlTCOGNITIVEBELIEFSISDENIALTHENANGER BARGAININGANDDEPRESSIONBEFOREACHIEVINGACCEPTANCE+UBLER 2OSS )N SUCHCASESTHERESPONSESTOTYPE)6TURBULENTENVIRONMENTSWILLBEBUSINESSAS USUALUNTILTHISCANNOLONGERBESUSTAINED3HOULDACRISISTHENOCCURRESPONSES WILLPROBABLYBEREACTIVEPOTENTIALLYCREATINGCHAOSANDATYPE6HYPER TURBULENT ORVORTICALENVIRONMENT-C#ANNAND3ELSKY3ELSKYETAL )NVORTICAL ENVIRONMENTSFAIRNESSACROSSGROUPSWILLBELARGELYIRRELEVANTASEACHGROUPWILL BElGHTINGFORSURVIVALANDIGNORINGTHEOTHERS )TISINTHETURBULENTCOMPLEXTYPE)6ENVIRONMENTSTHATCOMMONGROUND
HASACHANCEANDMAKESSTRATEGICSENSE4HEFORMATIONOFTHECOMMONGROUND CREATESTHECLIMATEFORCOOPERATIONANDSOCIALADAPTABILITYANDTHUSENHANCESTHE POSSIBILITYOFAPOSITIVERESPONSETOSUCHCHALLENGINGENVIRONMENTS3CENARIOSARE ATOOLTHATOFFERSTHEPOTENTIALTOFORMTHISCOMMONGROUNDnANDBYTHEIRVERY NATURESCENARIOSINCORPORATEELEMENTSOFFAIRPROCESS)BELIEVETHATCONSIDERING THEVARIOUSELEMENTSWHICHUNDERPINFAIRNESSANDTAKINGTHEMINTOACCOUNTIN THEBUILDINGANDROLL OUTOFSCENARIOWORKWILLMAKEANIMPLICITPRACTICEMORE EXPLICIT$OINGSO)HAVEARGUEDSHOULDCONTRIBUTETONOTONLYAFAIRERPROCESS BUTPOTENTIALLYALSOAFAIRERANDMORETRUSTEDOUTCOMEENHANCINGTHEIMPACTAND VALUEOFSCENARIOWORK
)AMINDEBTEDTO2OSHANA+ELBRICK7ILLIAM#OTTER+ONSTANTINOS+ARACHALIOS AND*OHN3ELSKYFORTHEIRHELPFULCOMMENTSONEARLIERDRAFTSANDASPECIALTHANK YOUTO2AFAEL2AM¤REZFORHISINSIGHTFULCHALLENGESANDSYMPATHETICEDITING
