ABSTRACT

Africa biodiversity 33-48 droughts 239-256 food security 20, 179-180, 188,

192 malaria 25, 375-397 Nigeria 198-238 outcomes of concern 11

agriculture climatic threat spaces 279-306 droughts 239 expansion 244

farmers’ social vulnerability 257-275

food availability 176 mapping vulnerability 101-104 poverty 211 rice production 8, 21, 333-350 sensitivity 205-210, 214, 216 watersheds 312, 318-319

agro-pastoralism 228, 231, 242, 246, 249

AIACC see Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change

alien invasive species 41-42 analytical hierarchy processes 271 Arba’at , Red Sea State, Sudan

246-247, 249, 250-251 Argentina 13, 22, 24, 117-133,

257-278, 279-306 artisanal fishing 17, 143-147 Assessments of Impacts and

Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC) 4, 7, 10, 12, 14-15, 18-19, 26

assets 228-229, 233, 238 autonomous response strategies

247-249 availability of food 175, 176, 193 awareness

coffee production 283 disease 386, 403, 404, 408-409,

412 droughts 231, 249 floods 130 forest adaptation 63

Bara Province, Sudan 180-182 baseline scenarios 137 bed nets 386, 389, 408 Beja pastoralists 242, 246, 249

Bhalme and Mooley Drought Intensity Index (BMDI) 220, 221

biocapacity 74 biodiversity 11-13, 33-48 biome impacts 13, 33-45 biophysical vulnerability 219, 321,

322 biotemperature 52, 53 BMDI see Bhalme and Mooley

Drought Intensity Index bottom-up approaches 224, 226,

234, 245, 330 brushlands 50-51, 318, 321 Buenos Aires, Argentina 117-133

capacity 81, 167-168, 178, 402-406 see also adaptive capacity

capital 182, 183, 243 carbon dioxide

biomes 13, 39, 45 climate 218, 219 rice production 337, 338, 341, 347 tea production 362, 364, 367 yield sensitivity 207

carbon:nitrogen ratios 83, 84 carbon sequestration 181-182, 246,

251 Caribbean region 398-415 cash-crops 23-24, 213, 261,

262-263, 264, 265, 266, 267 cassava 209 causal chains 191, 193 cautious behaviour 145-146 CCAM see conformal cubic

atmospheric model cereal production 333-350 CGCM model 356, 364, 365, 366,

367, 370 child dependency burden 212, 214 China 6-8, 88-114 Chingowa village, Magumeri Local

Government State, Nigeria 183-185

climatic threat spaces 279-306 coastal areas 13-17, 115-169 coffee production 282-289, 296 collective approaches 79-80, 81, 129

commercial aspects 24, 259, 272, 274 communal approaches

farmers’ social vulnerability 268-270, 271, 272, 273

food security 179, 180, 188 livestock herding 81 savanna biome 44

communication 130, 394 community level

dengue fever 406-410, 413 droughts 233, 250, 250-251, 254 early strategic actions 249 food security 188 forests 62 organizations 233, 250, 267 rangeland rehabilitation 181-182,

246, 251 tourism 166 watersheds 22, 308-309, 319,

321-322 see also local level

conflict agricultural expansion 244 droughts 184, 247, 252, 254 food security 22-23, 184 water use 97, 101, 104, 109

conformal cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) 337

consultations 95-96, 97-98 contingency plans 231 Cook Islands 16 coordination 130, 167-168 coping capacity

disease 389-390, 412-413 rice production 342, 343, 344,

345, 348, 349 tea production 368 see also adaptive capacity

coping deficit 244-245 coral reef systems 159, 160, 166, 167 Córdoba Province, Argentina 24,

260-267, 299-301 costs

coral bleaching 160 extreme weather 16, 156 flood damage 125 tourism 164, 165, 168

credit systems 210-211, 251 CSIRO-Mk2b 82 CSIRO model 356, 365, 366, 367,

370 cyclones 156-157, 159

dams 312 deforestation 54 degradation of land 8-9, 21-22, 23,

254 demographic level 211-212,

311-312, 327, 329 dengue fever 25, 398-415 dependence ratio indicator 107 dependency

agricultural 207-209, 216, 342, 343, 345

child 212, 214 external assistance 329 household 233, 234 human and biodiversity 43-44, 45 markets 247, 248 relief 253

desertification 9-11, 181 determinants of vulnerability

189-190, 192, 193, 230, 237-238 developing countries 279 development 22, 88, 97, 165-166,

312-314, 330-331, 348 disaster preparedness 28, 402-403 disease

dengue fever 25, 398-415 food security 20, 180, 185 HIV/AIDS 180, 213, 394, 404 malaria 25, 375-397

dispersers 35, 36, 38, 41, 44, 45 diversification 166-167, 168, 232,

258, 272, 345 domains of vulnerability 4-5 DPSIR index see driver-pressure-

state-impact-response index driver-pressure-state-impact-

response (DPSIR) index 136, 141 drivers, climate

coastal areas and small islands 14-15

ecosystems and biodiversity 12

human health 26 natural resources 7, 9, 10, 11-13 rural economies 18-19

droughts coffee production 284, 286 food security 20, 174, 175,

180-187, 188, 190-191, 194 health 27 household level 224-233, 237-238 impacts 6 indicators 100-101, 102-103 livelihoods 239-256 livestock herding 73-74, 75, 77-78 maize production 294 Mongolia 69-70 Nigeria 208, 218, 219, 220, 231,

233 resource systems 94, 107 sorghum 22 tea production 361-362

dry forests 13, 56, 57, 62, 63

early warning systems 91, 393, 394 East Africa 375-397 ECHAM4 82, 83, 147-148 economic aspects

adaptive capacity 212 change 21, 24, 67-68, 85 coffee production 289 diversification 258 droughts 228, 231, 237-238, 254 estuarine fishing 145, 146 export-oriented 23-24, 351 farmers’ social vulnerability

258-259, 274 food security 17-24, 190 globalization 279 malaria 389 resource-based 94 rice production 342, 343, 349 storm surges 16 tea production 370-371 tourism 16, 155-169, 165

ecosystem pressures 11-13 ecotourism 43, 167 education 210, 212-213, 214, 233,

324-325, 403, 404, 413

elevation malaria 377, 380, 390, 391 tea production 357, 358, 359, 360,

361, 362, 364, 365 El Niño Southern Oscillation

(ENSO) climatic threat spaces 280-281 coffee production 288, 289 dengue fever 25, 399, 401, 402 estuaries 135, 136, 140, 150 forests 56 maize production 293 malaria 25, 376, 380, 381-382,

384-385, 390, 393 small island states 156 watersheds 320

emission scenarios see scenarios; Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

employment 164, 165, 188, 191, 193, 209, 242, 248, 407-408 see also labour

ENSO see El Niño Southern Oscillation

environmental aspects agricultural development 274 estuaries 145, 148-150 food security 190 gated communities 126-127, 131 health 403-404, 405 maize production 186 pastoralism 72-78 risk 90 tourism 159

EPIC see Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator

epidemics 25, 376, 379, 387, 390-392, 391, 392, 393, 398, 401

Erosion Productivity Impact Calculator (EPIC) 205

estuaries 13, 16-17, 117, 118-120, 134-154

eutrophication 16-17, 139, 141 evapotranspiration 104, 105 export-oriented economies 23-24, 351 exposure

description of 89, 198, 240

droughts 228, 229, 234, 237, 241 farmers’ social vulnerability 258 floods 122, 123, 126, 127 malaria 382 resource systems 90, 95, 96-97,

98, 107 rice production 342, 344, 348 variability 213-214

external assistance 329 extreme weather

climatic threat spaces 285, 287, 288, 293-294, 302

cyclones 156-157, 159 dengue fever 403 forests 63, 64 heat waves 69, 107 indices of vulnerability 316-317 rice production 341-342, 346-347 severe winters 21-22, 70-71,

74-78, 84-85 Southeast Asia 325 storm surges 16, 117-133 watersheds 319-321 see also droughts; El Niño

Southern Oscillation; floods; La Niña

famine 70, 239, 240, 241, 242, 253 Famine Early Warning System

(FEWS) 91 farmers’ social vulnerability

257-278 farm size 323-324, 326, 327-328 FEWS see Famine Early Warning

System Fiji 16 financial aspects

adaptive capacity 210-211 dengue fever 404 droughts 228, 231, 237-238, 243 food security 180, 182, 183, 187 malaria 389 tea production 368, 371 tourism 168 see also costs

fires 42, 318, 320 fisheries 17, 143-147, 312

floods climatic threat spaces 290, 291 coastal areas and small islands

14-16 farmers’ social vulnerability 261,

263, 267 household vulnerability 20-21 maize production 294 rice production 341-342 rivers 8 urban 117-133

flow, river 138, 144, 148, 149, 382, 390

food droughts 240, 241-242 income 211 index of vulnerability 315-318 market dependence 248 resource systems 94 rice production 345 security 6, 17-24, 97, 171-372,

387, 393 watersheds 328

forests 13, 49-66, 319, 321, 329-330 fragmentation of land 40, 184 fynbos biome 11-13, 33, 34, 35, 38,

43, 44, 45

gated communities 126-127, 128, 131 GCMs see global circulation models gender 328, 408

see also women general circulation models 82,

281-282, 294 generic institutional capacity 402-404 Gireigikh rural council, Bara

Province, Sudan 180-182 global circulation models (GCMs)

37-38, 147-148, 354-356, 370 globalization 274-275, 279 global warming 49, 174, 203, 325,

338-339 see also temperature

González, Tamaulipas, Mexico 267-272, 272, 273, 274, 294-299

government level 67-68, 187, 193, 282, 283, 393, 402-406, 413

grant systems 180, 188 grasslands 50, 64, 72-73, 318, 321 groundwater depletion 222 growing seasons 100, 101, 102-103,

208 guinea corn 209

HAB see hypoxia and harmful algal blooms

HadCM3 model 82, 83, 147-148, 354, 355, 356, 366, 370

health 24-27, 191, 193, 210, 213, 317, 373-415

heat waves 69, 107 Heihe river basin, China 6-8,

88-114 highland malaria 25, 375-397 HIV/AIDS 180, 213, 394, 404 Holdridge life zones 51-53, 54, 55,

56, 58-60 hospitals 379, 383-384, 388 hotels 165-166 household level

access to resources 20-21 dengue fever 406-410 droughts 241-242 farmers’ social vulnerability 24,

257-278 food security 173-196 malaria 385-390 Nigeria 209-210, 212, 214, 215,

218-238 rice production 342, 343, 344,

346-347, 348 watersheds 309, 314-315,

322-323, 328 housing 126-127, 131 human assets 228-229, 233, 238 human capital 243 human health 24-27, 373-415 hydrology 382-383, 392-393 hypoxia and harmful algal blooms

(HABs) 139, 141, 142-143

income adaptive capacity constraints 211,

agriculture 97, 259, 270, 272 dengue fever 407 diversification 232, 272 droughts 232, 242 estuarine fishing 143, 144 food security 188, 193 malaria 386-387, 389, 393 rice production 21 Southeast Asia 335 watersheds 325, 326-327

indicators adaptive capacity 262, 269, 271 dengue fever 409-410 droughts 220, 221, 224-226, 234,

240-241 estuaries 136, 140-143 household 315-318, 326 livelihood assets 250 malaria 387 national 198, 213-215 resource vulnerability 91, 92,

96-111 rice production 342, 343-344 social vulnerability 122, 260, 262,

263-264, 269, 271 indirect sensitivity 209-210 information 129, 231, 403 infrastructure

adaptive capacity 212 dengue fever 411, 412 droughts 232, 233 floods 122, 123, 124, 125, 131 food security 177, 188-189 health 27 population 220 small islands 155, 156 tourism 159-160, 165-166

insecticide treated nets (ITNs) 386, 389

institutions change 21, 67-68, 78-81 dengue fever 402-406 droughts 252-253, 254 estuarine fishing 145 floods 130, 131 watersheds 311, 329, 330

integrated approaches 168, 378-379

Intermediate Technology Development Group (ITDG) 252

interquartile range methods 280-281 Intertropical Convergence Zone

(ITCZ) 156, 157, 247 irrigation 105, 106, 179, 180, 231,

313 ITDG see Intermediate Technology

Development Group ITNs see insecticide treated nets

Jamaica 398-415

karoo biome 13, 28, 33-34, 35-36, 38-39, 43, 44, 45

Kenya 375, 378, 385, 391, 392 Khor Arba’at , Sudan 246-247, 249,

250-251 knowledge 130, 385-386, 413 Kordofan State, Sudan 246, 247-248

Laboulaye, Cordoba Province, Argentina 260-267, 290-294, 299-301

labour 184-185, 188, 213, 232 see also employment

Lake Victoria, East Africa 25, 377-394

land agricultural expansion 244 degradation 8-9, 21-22, 23, 254 food security 184, 188 forests 50-51, 54 holding size 369-370 ownership 21, 184, 249, 259, 328 pressures on 8-11 registration 251 transformation 38, 40, 376-377

La Niña 135, 156, 293, 380, 381-382 Lao People’s Democratic Republic

21, 333, 335, 337-338, 340, 341, 344, 345, 346, 347, 348-349

La Plata river basin 13-16, 16-17, 117, 118-120, 134-154

large farm holders 24, 262-267 liberalization of trade 185-186 life history characteristics 40-41

life zone classification 51-53, 54, 55, 56, 57

literacy 213, 214 livelihoods

agricultural dependency 207-209, 216

diversification 232 droughts 226, 228, 239-256, 242,

248 food security 173, 178-196 indices of vulnerability 317 pastoralists 72-78 rural 17-24 savanna biome 43-44 variability 3 watersheds 312

livestock droughts 183-184, 232, 241, 242,

248, 251-252 extreme weather 67-87 farmers’ social vulnerability 261,

263-264, 265, 266 food availability 176 karoo biome 43 land degradation 11, 21-22 ownership 24

local level 63, 166, 174-175, 254-255 see also community level

logging 50, 61 long-term strategies 165-166, 193 Lotka-Volterra approach 37 Lower Mekong river basin 8, 21,

333-350

Magumeri Local Government Area, Nigeria 183-185

maize production 185-187, 205-207, 209, 289-294, 301

malaria 25, 375-397 Maldives 160 Mangondi village, South Africa

179-180 mapping 91, 98, 101-111, 318-319,

321-322 market economy transition 67-68,

80, 85

markets accessibility of 232-233, 326, 327 dependence 247, 248 food security 24, 179, 180 tourism 158

matrix management 42 medication, self 385 meteorological organizations 403 Mexico

climatic threat spaces 279-306 food security 20, 185-187, 189,

192 land degradation 22 market integration 24 social vulnerability 257-278

migration droughts 23, 184, 229, 232,

248-249 estuarine fishing 144 food security 20, 185 health 27 livestock herding 77, 80-81 natural resources 9 watersheds 328 yield sensitivity 207-208

mixed farm holders 262-267 moist forests 13, 56, 57-61 Mongolia 9, 11, 21-22, 24, 67-87 morbidity 375, 379, 383 mortality 70, 72, 75, 77, 159, 375,

388 multidisciplinary approaches

120-123 multi-level indices 315-318 multiple destination, cross-section

models 163

Namibia 13 national level 61-62, 63, 198-217,

244, 365-367, 369, 370-371 natural capital 243 natural resources 5-13, 23, 31-114,

228, 231, 237, 250 see also resources

niche characteristics 40 Nigeria 6, 20, 23, 183-185, 188-189,

192, 198-217, 218-238

nitrogen 83, 84, 139 non-climate factors

climatic threat spaces 280, 281 coastal areas and small islands

14-15 ecosystems and biodiversity 12 human health 26 malaria 385-390 natural resources 6, 7, 9, 10 rice production 348 rural economies 18-19

North Darfur, Sudan 9, 23, 247, 252

ordinal logistic regression analysis 226-227, 230, 237-238

organizations, social 233, 250, 251, 267, 327, 328

outcomes of concern coastal areas and small islands

14-15 domains of vulnerability 5 ecosystems and biodiversity 11,

12 human health 26 natural resources 6, 7, 9, 10 rural economies 18-19

over-grazing 9, 11, 81 ownership

land 21, 184, 249, 259, 328 livestock 24, 80 tea production 351, 358, 368, 369 see also tenure

Pajas Blancas, Uruguay 143-147 Palmer droughts Severity Index

(PDSI) 100-101, 102-103 Pantabangan-Carranglan watershed,

The Philippines 8, 20-21, 22, 63, 307-332

Parana delta 16 participation

dengue fever 413 droughts 226, 242-243 watersheds 313-314, 314-315,

318, 319, 321, 330 pastoralism

agricultural expansion 244

agro-228, 231, 242, 246, 249 corridors 221 droughts vulnerability 231-232 extreme weather 67-87 food security 184-185

pasture productivity 11, 21, 72-73, 82, 83, 85

PDSI see Palmer droughts Severity Index

per capita water resources 106-107 perceptions 223-224, 226, 233-234,

263, 268-270, 270, 291, 341-342 PET see potential evapotranspiration

ratio The Philippines 8, 11, 13, 20-21, 22,

49-66, 307-332 physical capital 243 planning 62, 165-166, 168, 244-245,

249-252, 255, 412 policy level

agricultural 244, 259, 274 change 68, 78-81, 185-186 dengue fever 412 droughts 252-253, 254 food security 176, 185-186, 187,

193 forest adaptation 61-62 malaria 394 tourism 159 watersheds 329-330, 330-331 water use conflicts 101

political level 258-259 population

adaptive capacity 210, 211-212 droughts 254 estuaries 134, 150 floods 124, 125 infrastructure 220 malaria 376-377 resource systems 92, 93, 106-107

potential evapotranspiration (PET) ratio 52-53

poverty adaptive capacity 210-211, 214 dengue fever 399, 408, 409,

411-412 food security 188, 189

livestock herding 80 malaria 386, 387, 388, 393 watersheds 313

precipitation Africa 37-38, 203 Argentina 261, 290, 291, 299-301 China 94, 100-101, 104 climatic threat spaces 280, 282 coffee production 284, 285, 286,

287, 288 dengue fever 25, 400 forests 13, 49-66 Jamaica 402 Lao PDR 337-338 maize production 292, 293, 294 malaria 25, 376, 381-382, 390,

391, 392-393 Mexico 267, 294-296 Mongolia 68, 69, 70, 82, 85 Nigeria 200, 202, 203, 204, 208,

216, 218, 219, 220-221 Pantabangan-Carranglan

watershed 8, 309-310 Río de la Plata 134-154 Seychelles 157, 159 Southeast Asia 325, 337, 339 Sri Lanka 353, 354, 356 Sudan 241, 246, 247 tea production 360-361, 367, 370 Thailand 338 tourism 160-161, 164 yields 205, 207, 341

private farmers 268-270, 271, 272, 273

probabilistic approaches 111 productivity

agriculture 17, 244 droughts 182, 184 food availability 176 pasture 11, 21, 72-73, 82, 83, 85 tea 358-360 see also yield

Proteaceae 35, 37, 38 public buildings 122, 124 public education 403, 404, 413 Puerto Rico 409 purchasing power 242, 259

rainfall see precipitation rangelands 72-78, 181-182, 183,

246, 251 rational runoff coefficients 104 real estate damage 123, 125, 131 Red Sea State, Sudan 246-247,

250-252, 253 reforestation 22, 310, 312-313, 330 refugia 40, 44 regression equations 298-299 relief 77, 253, 329 reservoirs 309, 312 residential development 126-127,

131 resilience 89, 144-146, 244 resources 20-21, 88-114, 174, 267

see also natural resources return periods 119, 122, 123, 124,

125 revenue 365-367, 370-371 rice production 8, 21, 333-350 rich farmers 324, 325, 326 Río de la Plata 13-16, 16-17, 117,

118-120, 134-154 risk 4-5, 8, 90, 126-129, 207-209,

223-224, 226, 333-350 rivers

basins 6-8, 88-114, 134-154, 333-350

floods 117, 118-120 malaria 390, 392 rice production 21, 333-350 sea level rise 13-16 water quality 16-17, 134-154

River Uruguay 134, 138 Roll Back Malaria programme 389 Roque Sáenz Peña County,

Argentina 289-294 runoff 104, 106-107, 247 rural economies 17-24, 171-372

Sahelian zone 22, 218-238 St James, Jamaica 406-410 sanitation 405 Santa Lucia river 139-140 savanna biome 11, 34-35, 36, 39,

43-44, 45

Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR 21, 333, 335, 337-338, 340, 341, 344, 345, 346, 347, 348-349

scaled indicators 108, 240-241 scenarios

baseline 137 climatic threat spaces 281-282,

294-302 dengue fever 401-402 estuarine fishing 146-150 farmers’ social vulnerability

274-275 floods 120-123 forests 53, 54-61 livestock herding 82-84 national 203 resource systems 95 rice production 337-339, 346 Sri Lanka 354-356 tea production 364-365 tourism 163-164 watersheds 315, 325-326 see also simulations

screens 408-409 sea level rise 13-16, 117-133, 159,

412, 413 seasonal aspects

biodiversity 43 coffee production 284 disease 383-385, 400 estuaries 149 food security 177-178 malaria 382, 383, 384 migration 24, 79, 81, 144, 221 rice production 21 seed availability 315 yields 208 see also variability

seed availability 315-318, 323 self-assessed perceptions 223-224,

226, 234 self-medication 385 sensitivity

description of 198, 240 droughts 241 estuarine fishing 144-146 farmers’ social vulnerability 258,

260, 262-263, 266-267, 268-270, 271, 273

malaria transmission 376 national assessment 205-210, 214,

216 resource systems 89, 90, 95-96,

98 rice production 342, 348 tea production 351-352

services 408, 411, 412 severe winters 21-22, 70-71, 74-78,

84-85 severity index 223-224 Seychelles 16, 155-169 simulations 51-53, 340-341,

362-365 see also scenarios

small island states 13-17, 155-169 small-scale farms 8, 21, 24, 184,

262-267, 323-324, 326, 358, 368, 370

snowfall 67, 68, 70, 71, 76, 85 social level

adaptive capacity constraints/Nigeria 212

change 67-68, 85 droughts 229, 233, 238, 243 estuarine fishing 145 farmer vulnerability 257-278 floods 126-129 food security 190 organizations 251 safety nets 24 tourism loss impacts 164, 165

social vulnerability 219 socioeconomic level 77, 311-312,

323-324, 326, 327, 328-329, 335, 386-388, 393

soil conditions 8, 39, 40, 100 sorghum 22, 209, 268, 269, 274 South Africa 11, 20, 33-48, 179-180,

188, 192 South America 8 Southeast Asia 325, 335, 338-339 southern Africa 33-48 soybean production 22, 259, 261,

272, 274

spatial distributions household droughts vulnerability

227 mapping watersheds 318-319,

321-322 Nigeria 213-215 resource systems 91, 98, 104-105,

111 Spearman correlations 326-327 Special Report on Emissions

Scenarios (SRES), IPCC 82, 95, 136, 147, 354, 402

species level 11-13, 35, 36, 37-45, 64, 142-143

specific institutional capacity 404-406 SRES see Special Report on

Emissions Scenarios Sri Lanka 23, 351-372 stakeholder consultation 63, 95-96,

97-98 storm surges 16, 117-133 streamflow 138, 148, 149, 379, 390 subsistence vulnerability 250 succulent karoo see karoo biome Sudan 6, 9, 20, 23, 180-182, 189,

192, 239-256 sudestadas see storm surges sugar cane 289 sustainable development 97,

403-404 sustainable livelihoods approaches

245, 255 synoptic variability 240

Taiwan 408-409 Tamaulipas, Mexico 22, 24, 267-272,

273, 274, 294-299 Tanzania 375, 378, 384, 385, 391 tea production 23-24, 351-372 temperature

Africa 203 Argentina 290, 291, 292, 299,

299-301 China 94, 95, 100-101 climatic threat spaces 280, 282 coffee production 284, 285, 286,

287, 288, 296, 297-299

dengue fever 25, 399, 400-402 forests 13, 51, 52, 53-54, 54-56,

57, 58-60 Lao PDR 338 maize production 291, 293, 294 malaria 25, 376, 379-380, 382,

385, 390, 391, 392, 393 Mexico 267, 294-296 Mongolia 68-69, 70-71, 81-82,

85 Nigeria 199-201, 203, 204,

208-209, 214, 215, 216 Pantabangan-Carranglan

watershed 310 Río de la Plata 136, 147-148, 149 savanna biome 39 Southeast Asia 325, 337, 338-339 southern Africa 37 Sri Lanka 352, 353, 354-355 Sudan 247 tea production 358-360, 364-365,

367, 370 Thailand 336, 338 tourism 160, 161-162, 164 yields 207, 341 see also global warming

tenure 9, 24, 259, 268-270, 270, 271, 272, 273 see also ownership

Thailand 21, 333, 335-336, 338, 340, 341, 344, 345, 346, 347, 348-349

threat spaces 279-306 three step risk assessment protocol

4-5 time-slice modelling 37, 38 Tlaxcala, Mexico 22, 185-187, 189 tourism 16, 43, 44, 155-169 trade liberalization 24, 185-186,

258-259 traditional practices 78-79, 81, 181,

389-390 transmission of disease 375-376,

390, 391, 398, 400 transport 177, 188-189, 388 treatment of disease 385, 387-388,

389-390, 390, 405-406 trophic states 16-17, 139, 140-143

two-dimensional hydrodynamic models 120-121

typhoons 319-320

Ubon Ratchathani Province, Thailand 335-336, 338, 340, 341, 344, 345, 346, 347, 348-349

Uganda 375, 378, 385, 391 urban areas 117-133 Uruguay 13, 17, 143-147 utilization of food 175-176,

177-178, 178

variability climate threat spaces 279-280,

290-291, 297-298 exposure 213-214 food security 173-174, 179 forests 63, 64 livelihoods 3 malaria 376 Nigeria 200-202 Sahel, Nigeria 219, 220-221 scales of 240-241 sensitivity 205-209 Sri Lanka 353 Sudan 239, 240-242, 253-254 water resources 8 watersheds 307-332 see also seasonal aspects

variability of the mean 282 vegetative cover 53-61 Veracruz, Mexico 282-289, 296

water access to 408, 412

conflicts 97, 101, 104, 109 harvesting 247, 252 indicators 88-111, 316-317 maize production 292 pressures on 5-8 quality 134-154 storage 408 withdrawal ratios 99-100

watersheds 8, 20-21, 22, 63, 134, 307-332

weather 74-78, 107-108, 231 see also extreme weather; El Niño

Southern Oscillation; La Niña West Africa 218-238 wet forests 13, 56 wind 71, 120, 137, 144, 146 winter severity 21-22, 70-71, 74-78,

84-85 women 181, 182, 184, 328, 408, 409

see also gender word pictures 242-243 world food demand 173

yield extreme weather 320-321 maize 292-294, 301 rice 340-341, 346 sensitivity 205-209, 214 tea 358-362, 363-365, 365-367,

368 see also productivity

zud 21-22, 70-71, 74-78, 84-85