To What Extent Do Venezuela’s Causal Textures Allow Scenarios to Work towards Social Dialogue?

The basis of scenario thinking and the causal textures framework have been described in Chapter 2. In this chapter I explore whether scenarios can be usefully employed in Venezuela. I also suggest that an analysis of the causal textures at play helps practitioners to understand the sort of scenarios that may be appropriate. I undertook a series of research interviews in Venezuela in 2004 after the recall referendum which confirmed President Chávez’s continued tenure. These interviews underpin the analysis in this chapter. The country as a whole – Venezuelan society, its politics and its economy – is taken as the unit of analysis in the context of its transactional environment.