From Causal Textures to Predetermined Elements to New Realities in Scenario Thinking and Practice

Reflecting on his experiences in Shell, Pierre Wack (1985a, 1985b) advocated that planning should be based on a better understanding of predictability, rather than best guesses made from established norms and assumptions. Wack argued that a better understanding of predictability could be achieved by identifying predetermined elements in the contextual environment. Wack defined predetermined elements as ‘those events that have already occurred (or that almost certainly will occur) but whose consequences have not yet unfolded’ (Wack, 1985a, p77).