ABSTRACT
The purpose of this chapter is to distinguish the main factors influencing the downturn and upturn in business activity, and to consider the relation of these factors to the end of inflation. The NBER's turning points are November 1948 and October 1949, and in the following model the downturn, when the forces of recession became predominant, is placed in the final quarter of 1948, and the upturn, when the forces of recovery became predominant, is put in the later part of 1949 III and early part of 1949 IV. The ending of inflation and beginning of deflation is placed at the end of 1947 IV and early part of 1948 I.
