ABSTRACT
Indonesia, with its vast population and great territorial reach, has long been regarded as the heavyweight among the nations of Southeast Asia. By 1949, its military forces had waged and won a war of independence against its colonial overlord, the Netherlands; six years later, one of its provincial capitals, Bandung, was the birthplace of the Nonaligned Movemem. More recently, and tin til the crisis of 1997-98, its economy became as large as those of all the other ASEAN member states combined, an achievement that seemed to many to confirm the country's preeminence in the region. Today, however, in the wake of the crisis, Indonesia's standing has been seriously eroded. To be sure, it has done much to develop its political institutions, allowing new civil liberties, giving freedom to political parties, and holding competitive elections. However, in contrast to most other countries in the region, it has so far done little to regain its earlier economic prowess. In addition, ethnic and religious violence, secessionist movements, organized crime, and vigilantism have risen sharply in many parts of the archipelago. Meanwhile, the armed forces, far from restoring order and ensuring national unity, appear today to be behaving in ways dial only deepen the unrest. In these circumstances, many observers have begun to speculate openly about the possible break-up of Indonesia.
