ABSTRACT
Judgments of learning (JOLs) made immediately after studying typically correlate modestly with future performance. If those judgments are made following a delay, however, the predictions of performance are remarkably accurate, a phenomenon referred to as the delayed judgment of learning (d-JOL) effect (Nelson & Dunlosky, 1991). Delays between study and test, however, rarely last longer than a few minutes and usually involve simple paired-associate learning. We investigated very long-term JOLs using a flashbulb memory event, the destruction of the space shuttle Columbia in February 2003. Students answered seven typical questions concerning their personal circumstances of learning of the event 2 days, 9 days, or 1 month after the event and provided confidence judgments and JOLs at the same time. All were retested 3 months after the disaster. The γ correlations between JOLs and memory were slightly less than .50, higher than typical immediate JOLs but not as high as d-JOLs observed in the laboratory. Correlations between confidence judgments and memory were considerably higher, especially if the initial report was delayed. To test whether “privileged access” was involved in these judgments, other individuals predicted long-term retention of the memories after reading subjects' reports. Others' predictions were slightly but significantly less accurate, indicating modest effects of privileged access in predicting very long-term memories. We conclude that both mnemonic and metamnemonic processes (Koriat, 1997) are used in making these judgments of future recollection.
