ABSTRACT

Analysis of the demographic results of birth-control policies starts with a discussion of female marriage patterns. To an even greater degree than in other cultures, Chinese traditions of universal marriage and premarital chastity make wedlock a prerequisite for childbirth. Fertility levels are therefore closely tied to the annual number of marriages, which again depend on legal and customary rules for marriage age, as well as on the age structure of the population. Large cohorts of women entering marriageable age, as they arrived on the Chinese scene during the 1980s, are obviously increasing marriage numbers and subsequent births. This is why rates relating absolute numbers to the size of different age groups are clearly the preferable indicator for measuring marriage intensity. Furthermore, political interventions and economic developments can also bring about a general delay in weddings during certain periods or a compensatory glut later on. In China’s case, this occurred during the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. Subsequently, the late-marriage rules of the 1970s, the sudden lowering of the permissable marriage age in 1980, and the re-emphasis on late marriage in the 1990s also led to abrupt changes. 1