ABSTRACT
A number of analysts and observers, noting that predictions at the dawn of the nuclear age of a nuclear apocalypse have proved exaggerated, argue that there is little reason to fear the consequences of the further spread of nuclear weapons. 1 Frequently at the core of such optimistic assessments is the belief that the very destructiveness of those weapons will both instill prudence in their new owners, making them less willing to use even minimal conventional force out of fear that conflict will escalate to use of nuclear weapons, and lead to stable deterrent relationships between previously hostile countries. 2 But such a fear of nuclear war was only one of the underpinnings of the first decades’ nuclear peace. Other equally significant geopolitical and technical supports may be absent in the conflict-prone regions to which nuclear weapons are now likely to spread.
