ABSTRACT
Defence policy is dominated by uncertainty. There are uncertainties about future threats and conflicts, new technology and future defence budgets. Examples abound. During the Cold War, NATO nations regarded the Warsaw Pact as a major threat; but the end of the Cold War resulted in the collapse of the Pact with many of its members joining NATO (an example of potential enemies becoming allies). Nor did the end of the Cold War result in peace: there were regional conflicts (e.g. Afghanistan; Iraq; Bosnia; Kosovo) and new threats from international terrorism. New threats required nations to adjust their armed forces shifting from the ‘static’ warfare and fixed bases of the Cold War to the need for flexible and mobile forces.
