ABSTRACT
It is a truism to say that we live in an uncertain world. By uncertainty, I mean the state where we do not know what has happened in the past, what is happening in the present or what will happen in the future. Let me brie¯y illustrate these three situations. An example of past uncertainty is when Mary lost her cat several years ago and doesn't know what happened to the pet. An example of present uncertainty is when a smoke alarm goes off in Peter's place of work and he does not know why. Finally, an example of future uncertainty is when Bob's ®rm announces a large cut in the workforce and he doesn't know whether or not he will lose his job. The position that I take in this book is that we can best deal with the uncertainties of life by adopting a set of ¯exible and non-extreme beliefs about them. I have outlined these beliefs in Chapters 2±5.
