ABSTRACT

Introduction The obstinate conflict that has turned the 150-kilometre Taiwan Strait into a de facto border reflects more than 50 years of rivalry between two political entities, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC). The ROC was established in 1911 by the Nationalist Party of China (KuomintangKMT). When the KMT was defeated by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the Chinese Civil War and fled to Taipei on Taiwan Island in 1949, the CPP declared the establishment of the PRC in mainland China. Since then, each of the political entities has claimed that it is the only legitimate government representing the whole of China. As both Beijing and Taipei have attempted to recover the area under their enemy’s control by military means, there have been a number of incidents and clashes, although they have so far been prevented from escalating into major wars. As the rivalry was incorporated into the global confrontation between the communist and capitalist bloc, the domestic conflict has been internationalised. Especially, the military involvement of the United States in the defence of the ROC and potential direct clashes between the PRC and the United States has raised the spectre of nuclear war. For this reason, the conflict across the Taiwan Strait has been one of the two most dangerous flashpoints in Northeast Asia together with the Korean Peninsula. There are at least three interesting features in this conflict. First, despite the end of the Cold War, the rivalry is still present, though in a new form. The CCP has not only survived the worldwide decline of communism, but also since the early 1980s presided over the PRC’s burgeoning economic prosperity. On the other hand, the ROC has gained self-confidence through the success of economic and democratic development dubbed the ‘Taiwan Experience’, with continuing US commitment to help defend the ROC against possible attacks from the PRC. Second, as was briefly pointed out above, though this is officially considered as a domestic conflict, its implications cover the whole of East Asia. The PRC holds on to the ‘One China’ policy, which all the great powers recognise. For this reason, PRC does not accept the internationalisation of the conflict: it objects not only to US military intervention, international mediation or international regime formation, but also blocks any move to

discuss it in international forums such as the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF ). Third, despite the continuity of the rivalry, the nature of the conflict has drastically changed since the mid-1990s. In the previous period, the fundamental issue of the conflict was the CPP-KMT rivalry for legitimacy and reunification. In the new era, the ethnic elements have transformed the conflict into one between the ‘official nationalism’ represented by Beijing and the ‘ethnic nationalism’ represented by Taipei. In this way, a fundamental issue of the cross-strait conflict is the possible independence of Taiwan and the PRC’s move against the prospect. Based on the understanding of the conflict across the Taiwan Strait, this chapter aims to seek answers to the following questions. What prevented the outbreak of another major war between the CPP and the KMT? What was the structure of the conflict and its management during the era of CPP-KMT rivalry? How did the structure of conflict and its management change over the years? What is the structure of the conflict and its management in the era of rising ethnic nationalism by the Taiwanese people? What are the prospects for peaceful cross-strait relations? The chapter first looks at the different phases of the CPP-KMT rivalry from the late 1940s to the mid-1990s and then examines how the structure of the conflict has changed since the mid-1990s. Next, it seeks to identify the conflict management mechanisms during the period of the CPP-KMT rivalry and then examines the mechanism that has developed since the mid-1990s. The chapter ends by discussing the prospects for the peaceful management of the cross-strait conflict and peace and stability in the area.