chapter  15
10 Pages

Examination of Emergent Behavior in the Ballistic Missile Defense System: A Modeling and Simulation Approach

WithSaikou Y. Diallo, Christopher J. Lynch

In this chapter, we demonstrate how the modeling and simulation systems development framework (MS-SDF) can be used to discuss the nature of emergence in a system of systems. We present the use case of a model of the ballistic missile defense system comprised of agent-based model and discrete event simulation components and show under what conditions it can be described as emergent. Using the model, we setup a set of random experiments with red forces firing missiles at blue forces with the goal of successfully hitting at least one target and observe the emergence of the following conditions: (1) there is no strategy under which the blue forces always wins; (2) there are far more ways for the red forces to win than for the blue forces to win; and (3) there is at least one strategy which guarantees that the red forces win.