ABSTRACT

The increase in the "incumbency effect" has long dominated as a research focus and as a framework for interpreting congressional elections. This important new book challenges the empirical claim that incumbents are doing better and the research paradigm that accompanied the claim. It also offers an alternative interpretation of House elections since the 1960s. In a style that is provocative yet fair, learned, and transparent, Jeffrey Stonecash makes a two-pronged argument: frameworks and methodologies suffer when they stop being critically considered, and patterns of House elections over the long term actually reflect party change and realignment. A must-read for scholars and students of congressional elections.

part |46 pages

A Conventional Wisdom and Its Importance

part |78 pages

The Data and Doubts

chapter 3|36 pages

The Basics

Percentages, Averages, and Careers

part |58 pages

The Role and Emergence of a Paradigm

chapter 6|7 pages

The Puzzle and an Interpretative Framework

Kuhn

chapter 8|15 pages

A Consensus and Normal Science

chapter 9|18 pages

Embracing and Sustaining a Paradigm

Why?

part |21 pages

An Alternative

chapter 10|16 pages

An Alternative Framework and Analysis