ABSTRACT

Originally published in 1994 and the recipient of the Stonier Library Award, this volume evaluates an alternative approach – the sequential filter- to managing the uncertainty inherent in the future course of the interest rate cycle. The specific hypothesis is that the sequential filter can produce valuable signals of cyclical peaks and troughs in interest rates. The analysis focusses on US interest rates from April 1953 to December 1988.

chapter |7 pages

Introduction

chapter |18 pages

The Folly of Forecasting

chapter |23 pages

The Interest Rate Cycle

chapter |5 pages

Summary and Conclusions

chapter |4 pages

Afterword