ABSTRACT
Some of my friends complained that the first edition of this book did not contain enough positive conclusions or definite forecasts—in other words, that it offered neither prophecies nor a plan for the pacification of Macedonia. I fear that I have not the ability or inclination to fill the gap. It is easy enough to devise half a dozen plans for the reform of the Turkish Empire, but the question is not whether they are good or bad, but whether they have any chance of acceptance. When a complicated situation, such as the problems of the British Empire, lies wholly or mainly within the grasp of a single set of authorities, there may be some use in deducing a policy from the facts of the case, and supporting it by published arguments. But in international matters such reasoning is of very little use, for a question like the future of European Turkey rests with half a dozen Powers, divergent in their interests and aims, and varying themselves in strength from time to time, so that no one can say what will be the decisive influence at any future moment. Clearly the Macedonian question is a knot which needs to be cut with the sword, whereas no one is bold enough to approach it with even a pair of scissors. Yet no sensible man could advise Great Britain to incur the risk of war in such a cause. We might, I think, have done more a few decades ago, when we took a special and somewhat artificial interest in the Turkish East, but at present I do not see how we can follow any policy different from that which seems to have guided both the present and the late Government—namely, to give our assistance and support to all humane and prudent schemes of reform, without attempting heroic measures which might mean nothing less than a European war. The rôle is not grandiose, but it is better than sneering and discouraging criticism. The most encouraging feature in the situation is that the Russian and Austrian newspapers (which, if not inspired, are at least not allowed to say what is thought inconvenient) admit that the condition of Macedonia is not only serious, but calls for remedy.
