ABSTRACT
In many cases, intelligence errors may be traced to perfectly normal psychological processes and tendencies. Some errors have their roots in emotional needs ('motivated errors'); others are a function of the filters, prisms, and shortcuts we use to help us make sense of confusing or ambiguous information ('cognitive errors'). Because these errors are in some sense a function of human nature, psychology imposes a 'performance limit' on intelligence assessment. Organizational or procedural tinkering, therefore, can only improve the quality of intelligence so far. The Cuban missile crisis amply demonstrates the usefulness of psychology for understanding crucial differences between the protagonists' perceptions and judgments. It also suggests that while national leaders are prone to both kinds of errors, intelligence professionals are more apt make cognitive than motivated errors.
