ABSTRACT
The precise storyline of the 2001 general election campaign depends to a considerable degree on the view you take about the opinion polls. If you believe the narrative of the polls, the Tories began the campaign, on 8 May, 24 points behind and faced the prospect of a further 5.5-point swing to Labour. 1 Labour’s average lead for the year up to that date had been over 18 points. It could be argued therefore that, since the Conservatives ended trailing Labour by a mere 9.3 points, they ran a rather successful campaign under the circumstances. To have reduced the Labour Party to 42 per cent, a lower share of the vote than it had received in any of the national opinion polls since the summer of 1992 (the surreal days of the fuel protests in September 2000 apart) suggests an even more significant advance.
