ABSTRACT

A well-known result concerning the relationship between population growth and economic growth in developing countries is the apparent lack of any negative impact when tested through simple correlation analysis. This result is at variance with what can be found from historical records in presently developed countries, and has been perceived in various ways in the profession. On the one hand, some authors think that the statistical validity of this result is not to be questioned and that it shows without doubt that Malthusian or neo-Malthusian views of development problems are wrong. On the other hand, other authors refuse to abandon their Malthusian paradigm and prefer to think that this result is an artifact due either to imperfection of data or to the fact that simple correlation analysis is an improper tool for problem analysing. This chapter aims to review the relevance of correlation results from a more analytical perspective view, with use of measurement errors, specification bias, and simultaneous equation bias.